Why Kalonzo's camp is against any deal with Ruto

Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka is playing hardball against the push for a unity government over fears that joining the Kenya Kwanza administration would hurt his 2027 ambitions.

The former vice president’s advisers are said to have advised against entering into a deal with President William Ruto’s government as that would greatly jeopardise his presidential chances.

It has emerged that Kalonzo’s camp is keen to avoid repeating Azimio leader Raila Odinga’s past political mistakes that reportedly cost him the presidency.

Raila had 2018 entered a political deal with President Uhuru Kenyatta in what was famously referred to as the handshake in which Raila supported the Jubilee government.

He is said to have inherited a massive baggage that choked his chances of succeeding Uhuru.

Raila would later work with Uhuru when he had fallen out with Deputy President William Ruto (now president) with the hope he would be anointed his heir.

Political analysts say that the handshake was the reason Raila narrowly lost the 2022 presidential election to Ruto despite enjoying the backing of Uhuru.

During the campaigns Raila was blamed for the Jubilee ills and underperformance, forcing him into a tight spot to defend himself as Ruto appeared to enjoy the goodwill of Kenyans.

Insiders say that Kalonzo sees a better chance to beat Ruto in 2027 if he remains outside government and builds his Azimio coalition into a bigger movement beyond his strongholds.

With Raila’s rapprochement with Ruto, there is a feeling in Kalonzo’s camp that the Wiper boss can easily inherit the ODM leader’s constituency in 2027 if he remains in the opposition.

There is also a strong hope in Kalonzo’s camp that the restive Generation Zoomers (Gen Z) would easily back the Wiper leader in 2027 if he remains firm against the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Kitui Senator Enock Wambua, a key ally of Kalonzo said the Wiper party position is that they will neither not join the government nor enter into dialogue with it.

“The party has been unequivocal on the issue of dialogue with President Ruto. Calls for dialogue are unwise, ill-timed and in bad faith. This is the party’s stated position and it has not been vacated," Wambua said.

Kalonzo vied for president in 2007 but lost to Mwai Kibaki, coming a distant third behind Raila.

He would later be named vice president in the Grand Coalition Government mediated after a post-election violence.

Kalonzo supported Raila’s presidential bids in 2013, 2017 and 2022, but he is keen on taking a second stab at the presidency in 2027.

The Wiper leader’s advisers have flatly rejected the possibility of Kalonzo working with the Kenya Kwanza government over fears that he will inherit the curse of the incumbency.

The curse of incumbency refers to a situation where leaders in office or those that they support are rejected by voters because of the failure of that administration.

“We advised Kalonzo to stay away from Ruto. Working with him is bad for his future politics. The President must be left alone, that is why we are not boarding the government of national unity train," said Makueni Senato Dan Maanzo.

The Kalonzo ally said the position has since been ratified by the Wiper National Executive Council, the party’s highest decision-making organ.

“Joining President Ruto defies logic. He is facing a lot of challenges with his deputy and now Gen Zs. How do you heal such a government? We cannot join such a government," Maanzo, a senior lawyer in Kalonzo’s inner circle said.

Wiper’s hardline position against a unity government comes at a time when there is a feeling in Azimio that Raila will not participate in the 2027 presidential elections because of his advanced age.

Raila is enjoying the backing of President Ruto in his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson job ahead of the February 2025 poll.

With Raila’s eyes on the AUC job, there is political hope in Wiper that Kalonzo would call the shots as the biggest opposition leader in Raila’s absence ahead of the 2027 poll.

Kalonzo’s camp is cautious that working with Ruto would be a devastating political plunder that would deny him the moral high ground to question the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga said the Wiper boss is walking a tightrope with wide but challenging options beset with complications.

He argued that while Kalonzo is keen on remaining within the opposition fold to consolidate his 2027 support, he does not appear a formidable force to take on Ruto.

“Either way he is doomed unless he becomes a beneficiary of the Gen Z revolution to mount a formidable challenge. Raila’s exit would leave a huge political void in the opposition that Kalonzo may not fill at the moment," he said.

A section of politicians have also opposed the calls for national dialogue including Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua, DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa and Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni.