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EXPLAINER: Luck vs. skill in sports betting: Is long-term success really possible?

Some think it’s only a matter of their bad luck, meanwhile others choose events they are not familiar with

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by ROZANNE NTHAMBI

Realtime18 November 2024 - 12:02
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In Summary


  • Wagering on sports requires both great luck and lots of practical skill.
  • Leveraging advantages in the market and finding out the most profitable odds requires a lot of time



Any sporting match may take an unexpectable turn, leaving everyone who placed a bet on its outcome with a loss.

Some think it’s only a matter of their bad luck, meanwhile others choose events they are not familiar with.

It is important to pick a platform with a comprehensive lineup where everyone would be able to find a competition according to their skills and knowledge – for example, you can take a look here at 1xBet mobile app review, which is considered as one of apps with the most betting markets.

The amount of options to find suitable tournaments and bet types are also important, especially for newcomers, which is also noted in the article.

Therefore, here is the explanation on the true relevance of both of these factors.

How skills and knowledge improve the chances

When some games like roulette depend entirely on a player's fortune, wagering on sports requires both great luck and lots of practical skill. In a book ‘The Success Equation’, which explains how determination and risk often affects business and investment activities, the original writer, Michael Mauboussin says: ‘sports fit on the middle of the scale in between skill and luck importance’.

Even though the bettors cannot make a completely precise prediction, they still can read players on the field, recognize various techniques or styles that grant a team better results and pay attention to the motivation (or the form in general) of a squad, which often leads people to more objective calculations.

The risk factor

Some of the disciplines, such as tennis rely completely on players’ acts. The same thing applies to any other competition with a large number of participants.

The amount of research done would never give bettors more chances, although since some sports have more of an unpredictable nature, they have higher odds which grant people winnings more frequently.

Is it possible to stay successful after a long while?

Anyone who puts dedication into boosting their knowledge about sport disciplines and how bookmakers work may attain accomplishments in the long-run perspective.

Leveraging advantages in the market and finding out the most profitable odds requires a lot of time, yet it leads to more opportunities to win.

Even though there are a few stereotypes about ‘bookmakers challenging those who win too often’ they shall not be taken seriously, since the betting platforms will make money regardless of their audience’s results.

Hence, there is no point in blocking anyone who succeeded tons of times.

In conclusion, it is possible to stay on track and be successful as a bettor for a long while, but only if one decides to put in an effort.

Both skills and luck have an equal impact on the results, so be careful while gathering the information for your analysis

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