Below-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, according to the IGAD March to May 2025 seasonal forecast.
The seasonal climate forecast was released by IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre.
This rainy season is critical for the equatorial part of the Greater Horn of Africa region and contributes up to 60 per cent of the annual rainfall.
According to the climate outlook, below-average rainfall is expected in much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and northwestern Tanzania.
There is an enhanced likelihood of below normal conditions for the cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia, northeastern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea and parts of southwestern South Sudan.
Additionally, there is a high chance of more than 70 per cent that the seasonal rainfall will exceed 200mm in southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
The temperature forecast indicates a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions, with the highest probabilities (more than 75 per cent) in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia and northern Kenya.
“As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes, droughts, floods and rising temperatures platforms like GHACOFs are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts,” ICPAC officer in charge Dr Abdi Fidar said.
“The theme of this forum, Climate Services for Closing the Early Warning Gap Together, underscores the critical role of actionable, timely, and accurate climate information in bridging gaps in preparedness and response.”
The forecast shows an early to normal onset is expected in most parts of the region, except for localised areas in central Kenya, southern Ethiopia and central Somalia, where a delayed start is likely.
“The predicted climatic conditions for the March-April-May (MAM 2025 ) short rains season are likely to have gender-differentiated impacts on the affected populations, with more adverse effects expected to be pronounced among women, children, older persons and persons with disabilities,” the report showed.
Fidar urges all players to take proactive steps to reduce these impacts on the most vulnerable populations.
Motumma Mekasa, state minister
and adviser to the Minister of Water and Energy in Ethiopia, said in
addition to Igad’s contributions to
peace and security, coming up with
initiatives to combat the effects of
climate change is essential in ensuring sustainable development.
