President William Ruto’s newfound love for Western and Nyanza in the wake of his perceived fading popularity in Mt Kenya could spell doom for his deputy, Kithure Kindiki.
Ruto has bagged opposition chief Raila Odinga and sustained a back-to-back charm offensive in the areas that traditionally voted for the former prime minister.
The President, pundits say, is seeking to consolidate the Western vote bloc to compensate for the ‘lost’ Mt Kenya, whose overwhelming support propelled him to power in the 2022 polls.
“For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West, which is likely to vote as a bloc, now out, he needs a replacement which he found in Raila,” political observer Elias Mutuma said.
Apart from Raila, Ruto has also secured the backing of top and influential political leaders in the larger Western region, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula.
Last year, Ruto roped former Kakamega Wycliffe Oparanya into his Cabinet in an apparent strategic move to ringfence Western.
In Nyanza, he dished out CS slots to Raila’s key allies John Mbadi (National Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy).
At the Coast, he picked former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho as CS for Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs.
“Raila and I agreed [to work together]. You know, there was a time I helped Raila and this time he has helped me. Why should anyone find a problem with that?” Ruto told a crowd in Kisumu last November.
With Raila’s support and the bigwigs backing his administration from the Coast, Nyanza and Western, Ruto has a pool of influential politicians to pick his running mate from.
“If elections were held today, President Ruto would be in a big mess. Odinga might help, so he cannot survive without him,” university professor Macharia Munene told the Star.
In 2022, it was argued that Ruto granted the Deputy President slot to Mt Kenya to solidify the region behind him and ward off the opponent who had picked a running mate from the region.
However, with the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the region has burst out in anger with leaders and residents declaring their revolt against him.
With the new developments, pundits say the President could scout for a deputy from ‘friendly’ regions for his running mate in the 2027 polls.
Political observer Javas Bigambo said the political dynamics of the 2027 elections could work against Kindiki.
He stated that should the soft-spoken DP demonstrate ‘inability’ or fail to manage the anger of the region and marshal at least half of the Mt Kenya votes for the President, his position would become untenable.
“The most important thing the President will look at in 2027 will be the person who will be able to get votes for him in areas that he would not be able to get,” Bigambo said.
Bigambo stated that Ruto would pick a running mate who would demonstrate and create a perception of sobriety, leadership and be subordinate when they win the election.
“If somebody from Nyanza Western or Coast will be able to persuade voters for the President, that will be the person he will pick as his running mate.”
With Gachagua’s impeachment, Kindiki is now the highest-ranking state official from Mt Kenya who Ruto would depend on to retain his support base.
In 2022, Ruto picked Gachagua, not only to ward off the influence of Azimio’s presidential running mate Martha Karua, but also to solidify the region behind him.
Gachagua hails from the vote rich Mt Kenya West, comprising Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri, Laikipia and Nyandarua counties.
Kindiki, on the other hand, comes from the East, composed of Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and parts of Isiolo counties.
Mutuma said Kindiki is a likeable person who has portrayed himself as a national leader and thus a valuable asset for Ruto in consolidating not only Mt Kenya but also other parts of the country.
“Kindiki is widely acceptable, even outside Mt Kenya because of his stature and demeanour. He is a likeable character,” Mutuma said.
The lawyer said the pioneer Tharaka Nithi senator has a statesman’s personality, an attribute that could help him solidify the region, which is bound to receive development benefits.
“Within a short time, he may use that to his advantage. He is a national leader and he has portrayed himself thus as Interior CS and that can work for him in and out of Mt Kenya,” he said.
However, other pundits doubt Kindiki’s ability to firmly marshal the region behind him and the Ruto administration.
University don Herman Manyora argues the DP appears not to possess the combative political credentials to rally the region behind him and diminish Gachagua’s influence.
“He has to prove it but for now he does not appear to have that character and ability to consolidate Mt Kenya East, let alone the entire region,” he said.
