Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga
Kenyan candidate Raila Odinga still stands a chance to win the chairmanship of the African Union Commission.
However, his chances are not as high as they were months ago.
The country’s image is not the best. If leaders have questions about the position of the President and the country, then it has serious implications for the image of the country.
And with that, they are likely to vote negative.
For instance, this DRC war. The president made a mistake. Instead of talking to African countries about what was happening in Congo, he decided to discuss it with the French President.
It did not go down well.
But he still has a chance, but not as high as a few weeks or months ago. I would not assure him (Raila) of a win in the elections.
The other thing is that Djibouti candidate Mahmoud Youssouf is very good.
He has some advantages here and there. He comes from the North and he could be having some advantage as they go to the election.
The other candidates are not very strong.
They do not have the political clout of the first two candidates.
For the Kenyan candidate, the other heads of state know him very well. He has been campaigning from country to country.
He is a former prime minister and he has had personal relationships with some of those heads of state.
So, it will be up to the heads of state to decide whether they want to elect someone they know and have interacted with or someone who is relatively new to them.
It may not be easy for them to elect someone they do not understand well.
But what is going on in Congo will determine whether some heads of state change their minds (about the Kenyan candidate) or not.
It is a very fluid situation for Kenya’s candidate given that our President is the chairman of the East African Community. It is not a straight one for Kenya. If we get over the Congo issue with ease, then the Kenyan candidate will stand a chance.