Raila Odinga to shape Kenyan political landscape, but how?

After failing to win the African Union Commission chairmanship, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is expected to return to national politics with gusto as the 2027 election beckon.

Even before losing the seat to Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Raila had declared he would return home if he lost in the polls.

He is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the presidential race, whether he takes a sixth stab at the seat (unlikely), or endorses a much younger skilled and charismatic candidate.

Questions abound whether Raila will abandon his new foe-turned ally, President William Ruto, with whom he formed a broad-based government, saving the President’s government from virtual collapse after Gen Z protests.

Ruto campaigned vigorously for Raila in his AU bid. A kingmaker in past elections, Raila’s is seen as the one person who will shape the political landscape in 2027.

Mwai Kibaki’s rise to the presidency was largely attributed to the declaration “Kibaki Tosha” made by Raila at Uhuru Park on October 14, 2002, just two months to the general election.

The opposition won a landslide 67 per cent of the vote, dealing a humiliating blow to President Daniel arap Moi. Kibaki had failed to capture power in the 1992 and 1997 general elections.

Raila has hinted at making a major statement next week, following wide consultations across the country. Kenyans are eagerly awaiting the announcement.

Following his meeting with Ruto at the Coast on Tuesday, when the two addressed national issues, Raila pledged to consult wisely as he mapped out his next steps.

The meeting caused speculation that Kenya may be on the brink of a significant political realignment after the once-bitter rivals met and pledged to consult on a possible 2027 coalition.

Raila, who began his consultations in Kisumu, started his meeting by engaging elders from across the region. “I will make an announcement sometime next week.

Watch this space,” he said. Migori Senator Eddy Oketch, a Raila ally, said he has no problem with the former Prime Minister entering into a formal agreement with Ruto.

Oketch said any agreement should aim to enhance services to Kenyans and not become a strategy for 2027.

“I suggest you (Raila) lead ODM in signing a cooperation agreement with President William Ruto’s government that can maximise services and benefits to our people,” he said.

Discussions around the next elections should start at an appropriate time, he said.

“We allow Ruto to work for the people, and 2027 will take care of itself. Let’s ensure service to the people at any cost.” Political analyst Joseph Mutua said the former Prime Minister has three options after the AU loss.

One would be to continue supporting Ruto all the way to the ballot.

“This means that before 2027, polls, Raila will mobilise and rally his supporters to vote for Ruto’s reelection,” he told the Star.

His second option is to sever links with the President and chart his own path, he said.

“In this scenario, his name will be on the ballot.” He said Raila’s third option is to play the role of a kingmaker. “This would mean supporting the candidature of one of Ruto’s rivals.” Mutua emphasised that the chances of Raila opting for first and second options are remote; the kingmaker option is most likely, he said.

“Given his advanced age and the tribal nature of Kenyan politics, I would not expect Raila to run for a sixth time. This is because he knows he stands little chance of winning. “As for playing the role of a kingmaker, I would only expect him to endorse a non-Mt Kenya candidate.”

Governance specialist and political communication strategist Javas Bigambo said Raila is still very influential in Kenyan politics.

“From the outset, I knew that whether Raila won or lost the AUC election, his interest in Kenyan politics would remain,” Bigambo said.

Political observer Mark Bichachi said Raila brings significant political capital to any candidate he supports, along with influential regional leaders who play crucial roles in elections.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua said Raila will not add any value to Ruto in the 2027 election.

“We do not know what Raila is up to. If he chooses to spoil the good work he has done over the years, it’s upon him. If anything, there is nothing big he will offer Ruto,” he said in a recent media interview.

He said opposition leaders were focusing on uniting Kenyans ahead of 2027, and designing a political formula that will bring an end to Ruto’s leadership.

As speculation rages about Raila’s next move, there has also been talk about the former Prime Minister joining Ruto’s administration in a senior position.

Supporters from both Kenya Kwanza and ODM, including Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei, and MPs Nelson Koech (Belgut) and Peter Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) have been vocal in advocating for a Ruto-Raila 2027 pact and the inclusion of Raila in Ruto’s government.

However, some Raila allies are very uncomfortable with such an alliance. They include Governors Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu) and James Orengo (Siaya), and ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna.

The three are adamant that ODM seeks the presidency in the next general election. Sifuna has maintained ODM will continue to play its opposition role, even with some of its members in Ruto’s administration.

ODM stalwarts such as Hassan Joho (Mining), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), John Mbadi (National Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), have all taken up Cabinet positions in Ruto’s broad-based government.

Their appointments have fuelled debate over ODM’s identity, and some members insist the party is still the opposition, while others argue it is now part of the government.

Sifuna has called on party lawmakers and officials who have aligned themselves with Ruto to resign and formally join the ruling United Democratic Alliance.

The Nairobi senator accused them of betraying the party’s values by “becoming Ruto’s mouthpieces, supporting his punitive policies, and abandoning the ordinary people.”

“Leave ODM and join UDA if you cannot defend Kenyans. Stop being sycophants and call out Ruto for the injustices happening in the country,” he said in a statement.

Orengo emphasised that government services to the Luo community and all Kenyans should be seen as a right, not a privilege.

“We are not visitors in this country.We should not be forced to praise anyone to receive development,” Orengo said, taking a swipe at some ODM members who have aligned with the government.

ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga has, however, dismissed Sifuna’s stand, explaining that the party was strategically engaging with Ruto’s regime while keeping an eye on the 2027 election—whether independently or as part of a coalition.

Kaluma even threatened to mobilise support for Sifuna’s expulsion from the party over his criticism of a future Raila-Ruto deal.

“We are in government, and we are moving forward,” he posted on X.