Raila Odinga to shape Kenyan political landscape, but how?
Questions abound whether Raila will abandon his new foe-turned ally, President Ruto
by ALLAN KISIA
Audio By Vocalize
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga
After failing to win the
African Union Commission chairmanship, former Prime Minister Raila
Odinga is expected to return to national politics with gusto as the 2027
election beckon.
Even before losing the seat to Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Raila
had declared he would return home
if he lost in the polls.
He is expected to play a crucial
role in shaping the presidential
race, whether he takes a sixth stab
at the seat (unlikely), or endorses a
much younger skilled and charismatic candidate.
Questions abound
whether Raila will abandon his new
foe-turned ally, President William
Ruto, with whom he formed a
broad-based government, saving the
President’s government from virtual
collapse after Gen Z protests.
Ruto
campaigned vigorously for Raila in
his AU bid.
A kingmaker in past elections,
Raila’s is seen as the one person who
will shape the political landscape
in 2027.
Mwai Kibaki’s rise to the presidency was largely attributed to the
declaration “Kibaki Tosha” made by Raila at Uhuru Park on October 14,
2002, just two months to the general
election.
The opposition won a landslide 67
per cent of the vote, dealing a humiliating blow to President Daniel arap
Moi. Kibaki had failed to capture
power in the 1992 and 1997 general
elections.
Raila has hinted at making a major statement next week, following
wide consultations across the country. Kenyans are eagerly awaiting the
announcement.
Following his meeting with Ruto
at the Coast on Tuesday, when the two addressed national issues, Raila pledged to consult wisely as he
mapped out his next steps.
The meeting caused speculation
that Kenya may be on the brink of
a significant political realignment
after the once-bitter rivals met and
pledged to consult on a possible
2027 coalition.
Raila, who began his consultations in Kisumu, started his meeting
by engaging elders from across the
region.
“I will make an announcement
sometime next week.
Watch this
space,” he said.
Migori Senator Eddy Oketch, a
Raila ally, said he has no problem
with the former Prime Minister
entering into a formal agreement
with Ruto.
Oketch said any agreement should
aim to enhance services to Kenyans
and not become a strategy for 2027.
“I suggest you (Raila) lead ODM
in signing a cooperation agreement
with President William Ruto’s government that can maximise services
and benefits to our people,” he said.
Discussions around the next elections should start at an appropriate
time, he said.
“We allow Ruto to work for the
people, and 2027 will take care of
itself. Let’s ensure service to the
people at any cost.”
Political analyst Joseph Mutua said
the former Prime Minister has three
options after the AU loss.
One would be to continue supporting Ruto all the way to the ballot.
“This means that before 2027,
polls, Raila will mobilise and rally
his supporters to vote for Ruto’s reelection,” he told the Star.
His second option is to sever links
with the President and chart his
own path, he said.
“In this scenario, his name will be
on the ballot.”
He said Raila’s third option is to
play the role of a kingmaker. “This
would mean supporting the candidature of one of Ruto’s rivals.”
Mutua emphasised that the chances of Raila opting for first and
second options are remote; the kingmaker option is most likely, he said.
“Given his advanced age and the
tribal nature of Kenyan politics, I
would not expect Raila to run for a
sixth time. This is because he knows
he stands little chance of winning.
“As for playing the role of a kingmaker, I would only expect him to endorse a non-Mt Kenya candidate.”
Governance specialist and political communication strategist Javas
Bigambo said Raila is still very influential in Kenyan politics.
“From the outset, I knew that
whether Raila won or lost the AUC
election, his interest in Kenyan politics would remain,” Bigambo said.
Political observer Mark Bichachi
said Raila brings significant political
capital to any candidate he supports,
along with influential regional leaders who play crucial roles in elections.
Former Deputy President Rigathi
Gachagua said Raila will not add any
value to Ruto in the 2027 election.
“We do not know what Raila is
up to. If he chooses to spoil the good
work he has done over the years, it’s
upon him. If anything, there is nothing big he will offer Ruto,” he said in
a recent media interview.
He said opposition leaders were
focusing on uniting Kenyans ahead
of 2027, and designing a political
formula that will bring an end to
Ruto’s leadership.
As speculation rages about Raila’s
next move, there has also been talk
about the former Prime Minister
joining Ruto’s administration in a
senior position.
Supporters from both Kenya
Kwanza and ODM, including Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei, and
MPs Nelson Koech (Belgut) and Peter
Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) have been
vocal in advocating for a Ruto-Raila
2027 pact and the inclusion of Raila
in Ruto’s government.
However, some Raila allies are
very uncomfortable with such an alliance. They include Governors Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu) and James
Orengo (Siaya), and ODM secretary
general Edwin Sifuna.
The three are adamant that ODM
seeks the presidency in the next
general election.
Sifuna has maintained ODM will
continue to play its opposition role,
even with some of its members in
Ruto’s administration.
ODM stalwarts such as Hassan
Joho (Mining), Wycliffe Oparanya
(Cooperatives), John Mbadi (National Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi
(Energy), have all taken up Cabinet
positions in Ruto’s broad-based government.
Their appointments have fuelled
debate over ODM’s identity, and
some members insist the party is
still the opposition, while others argue it is now part of the government.
Sifuna has called on party lawmakers and officials who have aligned themselves with Ruto to
resign and formally join the ruling
United Democratic Alliance.
The Nairobi senator accused them
of betraying the party’s values by
“becoming Ruto’s mouthpieces,
supporting his punitive policies, and
abandoning the ordinary people.”
“Leave ODM and join UDA if you
cannot defend Kenyans. Stop being
sycophants and call out Ruto for the
injustices happening in the country,”
he said in a statement.
Orengo emphasised that government services to the Luo community
and all Kenyans should be seen as a
right, not a privilege.
“We are not visitors in this country.We should not be forced to praise
anyone to receive development,”
Orengo said, taking a swipe at some
ODM members who have aligned
with the government.
ODM national chairperson Gladys
Wanga has, however, dismissed Sifuna’s stand, explaining that the party was strategically engaging with
Ruto’s regime while keeping an eye
on the 2027 election—whether independently or as part of a coalition.
Kaluma even threatened to mobilise support for Sifuna’s expulsion
from the party over his criticism of
a future Raila-Ruto deal.
“We are in government, and we
are moving forward,” he posted on
X.
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