The recent collapse of the National Super Alliance (NASA) comes just in time for the run-up to the 2022 general election. The Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) before it, suffered a similar fate. Each coalition disintegrated in the run-up to a major election.
The ruling Jubilee Coalition on the side of the government, which brought together United Republican Party (URP) and The National Alliance (TNA), seems destined to collapse. Why do Kenyan political coalitions collapse before major elections?
Political coalitions in Kenya are centred around personalities and not policy. Looking at Jubilee, for instance, its target in 2013 was to ensure the survival of two personalities: President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.
The ambitions of the two politicians converged around defeating the threat of the International Criminal Court crimes against humanity charges that faced them at The Hague. Why did Jubilee not collapse in the run-up to the 2017 election? Because it was centred around the interests of Uhuru and Ruto, namely retaining power for five more years.
For Uhuru, an additional term in office would consolidate his legacy and the name of the family dynasty. For Ruto, the 2017 election revolved around reinforcing the handover of the reins of the presidency into his “safe hands”, while reinforcing Uhuru’s promise to hand over the presidency to him in 2022.
What is different in the run-up to the 2022 election? The fact that Uhuru no longer needs Ruto’s voting bloc. Uhuru will not be running for reelection. Jubilee has served its purpose and its value is now moot. Secondly, the structure of political parties in Kenya reinforces the short-lived nature of coalitions.
Political parties are formed as vehicles to gain political power rather than vehicles to transform public policy via ideological frameworks. In political systems where parties form coalitions based on ideology, certain political formations are untenable.
For instance, a left of centre socialist party would not join arms with a right of centre party. A religious party would not coalesce with a communist party because of ideological and value differences.
In other words, ideology comes before individuals in accessing power. The structure of political parties in Kenya puts individuals before any programmatic ideology that drives public policy. This is part of the reason that slogans like ‘Okoa Kenya’ and ‘hustler narrative’ do not have any traction. They are mere slogans and have no political ideology to shape public policy. The private interests of politicians who form these parties trump any ideology.
Third is the realignment of patron-client relationships in Kenya’s ethnic constituencies. A historical legacy of the dysfunction of the Kenyan state has made access to the presidency very important. Access by an individual Kenyan’s co-ethnic, provides a presumption of access to the largesse of the state.
The patrons in the Kenyan political context are the politicians being elected. The clients are the voters. During campaigns, voters demand material benefits and access to power from their co-ethnic political patrons. In return for material benefits, the patrons expect votes from the clients (electorate) in the co-ethnic’s region. This shifts political dynamics and makes political coalitions ad hoc.
Lastly, the caveat that allows politicians to run as independent candidates, makes the ideological basis for running for office on a political party ticket meaningless. It makes party discipline difficult because party members know if they do not win the party nomination, they can always leave the party and run as an independent.
It deemphasises the centrality of the role of political parties in organising politics, providing candidates for office, and differentiating policy positions on core areas of public policy for the electorate.
Ironically, it also turns independents into clients demanding patronage from successful party ticket bearers (patrons) who want to avoid long expensive legal suits or electoral challenges.
This further contributes to the collapse of political coalitions before major elections due to the constant shifting of political players between parties.
Political dynamics change. Be ready for more breakups in coalitions and the formation of others as the clock winds down to the 2022 election.
City University of New York - York College
