President William Ruto, Kisumu Governor Anyang Nyong'o interacting with residents of Kondele, Kisumu County.PHOTO/FILE
As Kenya approaches the 2027 elections, the political dynamics continue to evolve, marked by shifting demographics and changing regional trends.
The recent contrasting events—such as President William Ruto’s grand reception in Kisumu and the heckling he faced in Embu—offer a clear glimpse into the challenges and opportunities he faces as a leader.
These events reflect not only the complex nature of leadership but also reveal how President Ruto, a seasoned politician, navigates between the love and resentment of different regions.
The 2027 election will likely see Ruto’s political strategy pivoting towards these shifting regional dynamics, especially as demographic changes suggest that he might not need Kikuyu support to win.
For decades, the Kikuyu community of Mt. Kenya has been a
central pillar in Kenya’s political power.
However, recent census data and demographic shifts suggest that this influence is slowly waning, particularly in key areas traditionally dominated by the Kikuyu.
The latest census data reveals some important trends that will influence the electoral outcome in 2027.
From 2009 to 2019, Kiambu County’s population grew by a staggering 794,453 people, from 1,623,282 to 2,417,735.
This population surge reflects rapid urbanization and significant migration from other regions, especially from communities like the Luhya, Luo, and Kisii.
This shift is changing the region from a predominantly Kikuyu area into a more ethnically diverse electorate.
This trend is reflected in other neighboring counties like Machakos, which saw an increase of 323,348 people, from 1,098,584 to 1,421,932, and Laikipia, where the population grew by 119,333, from 399,227 to 518,560.
These multiethnic areas are increasingly focused on economic issues such as jobs, infrastructure, and development, rather than strict ethnic loyalties.
Traditionally Kikuyu strongholds like Nyeri and Kirinyaga have experienced more modest population growth. Nyeri added just 65,606 people, growing from 693,558 to 759,164, while Kirinyaga saw an increase of 82,357, from 528,054 to 610,411.
While still significant, these gains are far below the more substantial increases in areas like Kiambu and Machakos, suggesting that these counties are not growing at the same rate, limiting their influence in national elections.
While Kikuyu support may no longer be the deciding factor for President Ruto, the growing political importance of other regions could tip the balance in his favor.
Counties like Kakamega saw a population increase of 206,928, from 1,660,651 to 1,867,579, while Migori grew by 199,266, from 917,170 to 1,116,436.
These counties, traditionally supportive of opposition parties, are now becoming more important due to their growing populations and shifting political allegiances.
This increase in population gives Ruto an opportunity to strengthen ties with this region, which has been critical for forming a broad-based coalition.
Nyanza is similarly experiencing growth.
Counties like Kisumu and Homa Bay have seen increased populations, signaling that the region is becoming more urbanized and diverse.
This urbanization is making it easier for Ruto to win support in these areas by focusing on development policies such as infrastructure, health, and job creation—issues that resonate with the growing electorate.
Northeastern counties like Marsabit and Garissa have also seen significant population increases—Marsabit grew by 168,619 people, from 291,166 to 459,785, while Garissa added 218,293, from 623,060 to 841,353.
These regions, traditionally supporting political leaders who directly address their unique concerns, are becoming increasingly important. Investments in security, infrastructure, and services for these areas will solidify Ruto’s popularity here.
A key factor in Ruto’s potential success in 2027, even without Kikuyu support, is the fragmentation within the Kikuyu community.
Once a monolithic voting bloc, the Kikuyu vote is now divided, with different factions supporting alternative candidates or focusing on local political interests rather than uniting behind traditional leaders.
This decline in political unity, especially with the rise of new voices within the community and the growing influence of Kikuyu diaspora populations, weakens the once-dominant position the Kikuyu community held in national politics.
In light of these demographic and political shifts, Ruto has the opportunity to adjust his strategy for the upcoming election.
He no longer needs to rely solely on Kikuyu support. Instead, he can focus on building a broader, more inclusive coalition.
The future of Kenyan politics lies in urbanized counties and the growing influence of regions like Western, Nyanza, Coast, and Northeastern.
By emphasizing policies that focus on economic development,
job creation, infrastructure, and youth empowerment, Ruto can build a coalition
that appeals to a diverse cross-section of the electorate.
