OTIENDE: Is Natembeya a proxy politician seeking to split Western Kenya vote?

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has recently emerged as a prominent figure in discussions about the 2027 General Election.

While he presents himself as a bold and independent leader with national ambitions, a closer look at his political manoeuvres suggests a different narrative, Governor Natembeya appears to be less of his own man and more of a proxy for other political forces,. His primary agenda appears as one to destabilize the Western Kenya vote bloc, a crucial stronghold for President William Ruto’s re-election bid.

Natembeya’s sudden rise to national prominence raises eyebrows, especially given his relatively short tenure as governor. His rhetoric and actions suggest a man more interested in national politics than in securing a second term in Trans Nzoia. This is puzzling, as any rational politician in his position would prioritize consolidating his local base and delivering on his promises to his constituents. Instead, Natembeya seems to be positioning himself as a national figure, a move that reeks of external influence rather than organic political ambition.

The Western Kenya bloc, home to the Luhya community, is a vote-rich region that has historically played a decisive role in determining the outcome of presidential elections. For Ruto, maintaining unity in this region is critical to his path to a second term.

However, Natembeya’s recent statements and actions suggest a deliberate attempt to sow discord and split the Western vote. By positioning himself as a Luhya leader who can negotiate on behalf of the community, Natembeya is undermining the influence of established leaders such as PCS Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker Moses Wetang’ula.

This fragmentation benefits neither the Luhya community nor the region’s political cohesion but serves the interests of those who wish to weaken Ruto’s support base. Natembeya’s alignment with figures such as impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua further fuels suspicions about his true motives.

Gachagua’s public encouragement of Natembeya, coupled with the governor’s frequent criticisms of the Ruto administration, suggest a coordinated effort to create a rift within the Western Kenya political landscape.

While Natembeya denies being a project of Gachagua or any other politician, his actions speak louder than words. His bold criticisms of the government, often delivered in the presence of the President, are uncharacteristic of a governor focused on local development. Instead, they point to a calculated strategy to position himself as a national opposition figure.

Moreover, Natembeya’s insistence that the next President should be a Luhya is a thinly veiled attempt to rally the community behind him, while simultaneously alienating other leaders. This narrative, while appealing to some, risks dividing the Luhya vote and weakening the region’s bargaining power in national politics.

By framing himself as the voice of Western Kenya, Natembeya is not advocating for unity but rather for his own political survival. His attacks on Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, whom he accuses of being beholden to the status quo, are designed to discredit their leadership and create a vacuum that he can fill.

Natembeya’s political strategy is fraught with contradictions. On one hand, he claims to be fighting for the Luhya community’s ascendancy to power and on the other, his actions seem to benefit external forces intent on destabilizing the region.

His sudden interest in national politics, coupled with his reluctance to focus on securing a second term as governor, suggests that he is being fronted by other politicians to scuttle the Western Kenya vote.

George Natembeya’s political manoeuvres are less about serving the people of Trans Nzoia or the Luhya community and more about advancing the agenda of those who seek to undermine Ruto’s re-election prospects.

By positioning himself as a national figure and sowing discord within the Western Kenya bloc, Natembeya is playing a dangerous game that could have far-reaching consequences for the region’s political future.

The people of Western Kenya must see through this charade and demand leaders who prioritize their interests over external political machinations. Natembeya may claim to be the voice of the people, but his actions suggest he is merely a pawn in a larger political game.

 Japheth K. Otiende is Kenyan citizen residing in Botswana and comments on politics