That is the question that rang in the minds of many Kenyans when former Nyamira Senator Kennedy Ogeto Mongare launched a book that focuses solely on Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the African Union Commission chairmanship. The jury is still out.
The 185-page book is titled “How and Why Raila Odinga Can Win AUC Chairmanship Against Hurdles.”
Raila’s candidacy has been bogged down by the waning popularity of the one nominating him for the contest, President William Ruto. Ruto’s very legitimacy came into question following the historic June 25, 2024 protest that stormed Parliament in a symbolic rejection of his tax policies.
Ruto’s critics have taken their bile to international level by supporting Djiboutian candidate Mohammed Yousef, often sharing his campaign messaging and digital merchandise to spite Ruto.
But the premise of Ogeto’s book is that Raila can still win the mid-February vote to succeed Chad’s Mousa Mahamat, who is term-limited.
Ogeto’s approach entails retracing Raila’s political history in the country, his wins and losses, and weighing them against the current political dynamics in the continent. He returns the verdict that the 80-year-old supremo can prevail.
With a focus on his ability to connect with leaders across the continent, the book raises important questions about his candidacy, which is: Can Raila Odinga overcome the obstacles in his path and rally the support needed to lead the African Union?
The book also goes at length in discussing why the chairmanship of AUC is a prestige that every country with a chance must contend for. It is one of the most influential positions in African diplomacy and continental governance.
The AUC chairmanship rotates among the five African regions: Northern, Western, Eastern, Central and Southern. The winner serves a four-year renewable term.
The role of the commission’s chairman includes transacting continental diplomacy, being the spokesman of the collective continent at the global stage, and promoting peace and security in Africa through guiding efforts to resolve conflicts, civil wars and insurgencies.
The commission’s boss is also the one who drives the continental economic integration agenda. In this case, the African Continental Free Trade Area comes to mind, a policy initiative that seeks to create the world’s largest free-trade area that unites all the 55 country markets.
The AfCTA, if fully implemented, is billed as the breakthrough for intra-Africa trade, accelerate industrialisation and sustainable economic development across the continent.
The chairman also has the duty of addressing Africa’s regional and global challenges, including climate change, migration and global inequality.
Pushing the reform agenda is a hugely important task of the next chair. Targeted areas include the AU itself, global multilateral institutions, such as the UN Security Council, and financial institutions, including the World Bank and the IMF.
Ogeto argues that Raila uniquely fits the bill given his decades-long reforms credential and zeal for good political fights.
Chapter three of the book and onwards is where the meat is. The author says that Raila’s experience is a boon for his candidacy.
“One of the key reasons Raila Odinga stands a realistic chance to win the AUC chairmanship is his long and resilient political career,” Ogeto says.
“Odinga has faced numerous personal and political challenges throughout his journey: detention, electoral losses and political betrayals. Yet he has remained a central figure in Kenyan and African politics.
“His resilience in the face of adversity mirrors the struggle of many African nations, making him a relatable and inspiring figure for leaders across the continent.
“His experience as a negotiator and peace broker, especially in resolving domestic conflict like Kenya’s post-election violence 2008, is crucial for a role that often demand conflict mediation and continental diplomacy.”
However, the author’s argument on Raila’s alleged heroic role in the bloody 2008 political impasse in Kenya is a contested claim as the ODM boss was one of the rivals in the conflict.
In fact, his opponents often argue that he, alongside the late President Mwai Kibaki, should have been the ones dragged to the Hague as the ethnic clashes were happening at their behest, hence they bore political responsibility.
How can Raila win? The book offers some tips for the Raila campaign.
For West Africa, he should focus his messaging on matters related to security and combating terrorism as well as adherence to democratic values, given the spate of political instabilities synonymous with the region.
By aligning his agenda with their priorities, such as the fight against terrorism and promoting trade, he can build a coalition that supports his candidacy, the book argues.
For Southern Africa, he can target the SADC leadership, which is influential in the regional politics. He should emphasise regional cooperation on economic integration and infrastructure development, aligning his goals with SADC’s objectives.
For this region, collaborating on initiatives that address regional issues, such as energy security and trade facilitation, can enhance his appeal in Southern Africa.
In the Francophone bloc, he should focus on Senegal, Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso, which are deemed influential in AU politics. Four countries, including Burkina Faso, will not be eligible to vote as they are expelled from AU due to recent coups.
Other tips Ogeto offers include reviving old networks and collaborations, especially when he served as AU’s high representative on infrastructure. He should also seek endorsement from former leaders like Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Joaquim Chissano of Mozambique.
He can then use these former leaders as diplomatic emissaries in making his case. Participation in key multilateral events where African head of states converge and have an interest is also recommended.
Ogeto is a lawyer and politician with bachelors of arts in political science and philosophy, bachelor of laws, diploma in medica jurisprudence, master of law and postgraduate diploma in law from KSL. He also authored “Why Donald J Trump Must Win 2024 Against All Odds.” The foreword is done by Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, who lavishes Raila with all manner of praise
