President Uhuru Kenyatta’s influence on ODM leader Raila Odinga's presidential campaign appears stronger outside his Mt Kenya backyard where his deputy William Ruto has a tight grip.
The President's backing is evident in at least 11 counties that could have a significant impact on the Raila-Ruto contest on August 9.
Uhuru has helped rally 33 influential governors behind Raila.
The Azimio la Umoja political machine recently paraded about 30 parties, bringing together regional kingpins, who will together face off with Ruto's Kenya Kwanza team.
Ironically, Ruto has maintained a vice-like hold on Uhuru's Mt Kenya turf where many political leaders have defected to UDA.
“In the President's turf, Raila has not been able to make significant inroads as initially expected. However, he can surely marshal the 30 per cent. That will dent Ruto's vote basket or the initial Jubilee vote bank,” Dr Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, told the Star.
The 11 counties where Uhuru has influence are Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Kisii, Nyamira, Kajiado, Narok, Samburu and West Pokot.
Except for West Pokot, these counties were battlegrounds between Uhuru and Raila in the last two elections.
The President's Jubilee Party also seems to be attracting stronger candidates outside Central Kenya. Jubilee has many candidates in Turkana, Samburu, Narok, Kajiado and several Northeastern counties.
The latest opinion poll by Radio Africa Group indicates Raila would win Northeastern by 70 per cent against Ruto's 25 per cent.
Overall, the poll showed Raila would lead the presidential contest by 47.4 per cent against 43.4 per cent.
The poll conducted between March 7-11 , closing on the day Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka teamed up with Raila, shows the ODM leader would win in six of the eight former provinces.
They are Northeastern, Nyanza, Coast, Western, Lower Eastern and Nairobi.
Ruto would, on the other hand, win the Rift Valley and Central Kenya.
Apart from three MPs in Northeastern, the other bigwigs have aligned themselves with Azimio.
Garissa Township MP Aden Duale, Wajir West MP Ahmed Kolosh and Garissa Woman Representative Anab Gure are the only big names from Northeastern in the Ruto camp.
The President is argued to have also managed the competition that could have hurt Azimio’s chances in Marsabit and Isiolo.
In Isiolo, Woman Representative Rehema Jaldesa jumped ship from UDA to Azimio.
Although they are sworn political adversaries, Treasury CS Ukur Yatani and Marsabit Governor Mohamud Ali both support Raila.
Political observers cite Kajiado, Narok and Kisii regions, which voted in the past to elections, 50-50 for Uhuru and Raila.
“Uhuru is the force behind fringe regional parties. He also funds them. That contributes in a big way to increase Raila's votes," politcal analyst Martin Andati told the Star.
Dr Nyambuga said Uhuru's support has helped Raila galvanise Samburu, Northeastern, Kisii and even Kuria.
Nearly all Samburu leaders who backed Uhuru in the past two elections are now aligned with Raila.
Samburu Governor Moses Lenolkulal, former Agriculture PS Richard Lesiyampe, MPs Naisula Lesuuda (Samburu West), Maison Leshoomo (Samburu Woman MP) and Sarah Lekorere (Laikipia East) are now with Raila.
Uhuru is said won over West Pokot leaders to back Azimio.
West Pokot Governor John Lonyangapuo, Pokot South MP David Pkosing and Senator Samuel Poghisio are backing Azimio.
They backed Jubilee and Kanu in 2017.
In Kisii, all the top guns are in Raila's camp. They include Governor James Ongwae, Nyamira's Amos Nyaribo and Interior CS Fred Matiang'i.
Even so, Ruto’s display of might at the UDA NDC in Kasarani probably left no doubt of his influence in the President's backyard.
He pulled a "Yote yawezekana bila Uhuru" chant in the charged meeting dominated by Mt Kenya politics.
Notable was the entry of Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria, Kiambu Senator Kimani Wamatangi and former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo.
In Mt Kenya East, the DP bagged Tharaka Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki, who recently declared support for UDA. He earlier was mulling his options with Azimio.
Embu Senator Njeru Ndwiga, who had been championing Uhuru, has also boarded the UDA train.
Ruto is also backed by Meru Senator Mithika Linturi and MPs Kathuri Murungi (South Imenti), John Mutunga (Tigania West), Gichunge Kabeabea (Tigania East), Moses Kirima (Central Imenti), Senator Kithure Kindiki (Tharaka Nithi) and Mugambi Rindikiri (Buuri).
Uhuru backers said that support may dwindle as Jubilee has rejuvenated itself.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni (Ndaragwa MP) said the President’s call at Sagana III has been well received.
“The influence is there. We are not just shouting because time will prove us correct," he said
His Kieni counterpart Kanini Kega, former Raila critic turned fierce defender, said the region “will as always listen to their leader” – Uhuru.
“The numbers wanting to view to vie on a Jubilee ticket after the Sagana meeting is evidence enough," he said.
Lots of words about support. The question, though, is whether words mean votes to give Azimio a first-round win.
Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe said in an earlier interview Raila stands to win "with just a little boost from Mt Kenya".
Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua said Uhuru will secure votes in Mt Kenya and outside Mt Kenya, if voters are happy with his 10-years in office. And if they believe his message and are emotionally attached.
Mokua said the trouble could be that Jubilee is not as strong in Mt Kenya as UDA "if the number of aspirants is anything to go by".
“A good part of Mt Kenya voters feel they have not been prime beneficiaries of Uhuru's leadership,” he said.
“Raila may end up taking credit for Uhuru successes and taking liability for his failures. Folks are asking themselves if they are better off 10 years after Uhuru took over from Kibaki,” Mokua said.
“Ruto has a competitive advantage because of his laser-beam attention on Mt Kenya. He has positioned himself as the panacea for its economic challenges.
"He has also painted Uhuru as a leader who doesn’t keep his word,” Mokua said.
Uhuru may net a chunk of votes in parts of the Coast and Rift alley for Raila.
“Uhuru has strong emotional support in Northeastern, parts of Coast and parts of Rift, These folks are emotionally attached to Uhuru and don’t bother with metrics when voting.”
Politicians uncomfortable with Raila are supporting him through Jubilee, Mokua said.
But how did Uhuru lose the support of his backyard?
Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa said,"The President slept on duty from 2013 to 2019. The person running the government then was Ruto.”
“Uhuru failed to mentor emerging leaders to take over. Ruto, therefore, mentored fresh leaders from Central. They have successfully managed to eclipse Uhuru as the kingpin of Central Kenya,”Barasa said.
Those who were mentored include Rigathi Gachagua, Ndindi Nyoro, Kimani Ichung’wah, Alice Wahome and Kithure Kindiki. They were instrumental in identifying many development projects.
“Most of those road projects and many others emanated from these people when Ruto was literally running the government,” Barasa said.
“Uhuru’s endorsement of Raila, therefore, doesn’t come with the support of Central Kenya voters. That is why you see him endorse the ODM leader outside the region,” the Ruto ally said.
Prof Gitile Naituli also downplayed Uhuru’s influence, saying Central is not Nyanza where residents are solidly behind Raila.
“We don't have kings nor do we follow princes. We follow your success as a leader,” the former NCIC commissioner said.
At Sagana III last month, Uhuru poured his heart out, trying to defuse he notion he had abandoned the region.
He listed mega projects in his backyard, including roads, water, electric connectivity, health and markets.
(Edited by V. Graham).
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