President William Ruto's first official visit to China has had undertones of East-West rivalry, having initially taken a pro-Western stance since taking power in September 2022.
President Ruto was among the six African leaders who attended the Third Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing.
The others were Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was picked ahead of Ruto to speak at the opening ceremony, Congo Brazzaville President Denis Sassou Nguesso, Egypt PM Mostafa Madbouly, Mozambique PM Adriano Maleiane and Nigeria Vice President Kashim Shettima.
The head of state signed agreements with China Energy International Group and Huawei Technologies, held a roundtable with China-Kenya investors, delivered an address on digital economy and held talks with President Xi Jinping.
As he wrapped up his visit on Wednesday, Ruto said he and President Xi agreed to open Chinese markets to Kenyan agricultural produce and ensure completion of infrastructure programmes.
"China is committed to enhancing trade, expanding investments and increasing technical cooperation with Kenya,” the President said on X (formerly Twitter).
China Foreign Affairs ministry said the two countries agreed to work for “an even more robust comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership”, having found their cooperation rewarding.
“Over the past decade, China and Kenya together built the Mombasa-Nairobi Railway and the oil terminal at the Port of Mombasa, among other projects, delivering fruitful results in Kenya and giving the people of the two countries a greater sense of gain. The Chinese find our cooperation rewarding,” the brief read in part.
State-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation undertook the construction of the Standard Gauge Railway, the Nairobi Expressway, Lamu port, Kipevu Oil terminal, the Likoni floating bridge and Nairobi bypasses, among other projects in the country.
In pitching for mutual investments, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Kenya is welcome to make full use of trade promotion initiatives and platforms such as the "green channel" for African agricultural product exports to China, share in its market and the dividends of China's opening up.
The ministry further said Kenya is welcome to increase the export of high-quality products, and that Beijing encourages more Chinese enterprises to invest in Kenya, expand cooperation in digital economy, new energy and other fields.
President Ruto was, however, making the visit against the backdrop of a campaign rhetoric against Chinese loans, his Look West foreign policy orientation and harsh attacks by senior government officials against Chinese traders.
Former Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, who has since been moved to the Public Service docket, was in February this year engaged in a tussle with Chinese firm China Square based in Nairobi.
Kuria said the firm should stop operations in Kenya, arguing Chinese investors should invest in manufacturing not trading.
"We welcome Chinese investors to Kenya but as manufacturers, not traders,” he said.
Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, however, differed with Kuria, saying all actors, no matter their nationality- operating within the law should suffer any apprehension.
"No lawful investment actor- irrespective of their nationality- should be apprehensive because the country's investment regime is non-arbitrary and non-discriminatory," Korir said.
The Kenya Kwanza administration started off on a Western-oriented engagements, with visits to Washington, London, Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam and Geneva.
In his September visit to the US, the third as President, Ruto signed various deals with American investors, including the Sh8.7 billion electric buses agreement.
He has also drawn accolades from US Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman, who described him as "smart, strategic and gets things done".
Amb Whitman's remarks at the eighth devolution conference as she pitched for Kenya as a preferred destination for investments drew the wrath of opposition Azimio leader Raila Odinga, who termed her as rogue. The entire Kenya Kwanza administration defended her.
However, by that time, the Kenya Kwanza administration had started cozying up to China.
The tension between the West and China is unhelpful, unnecessary and is as useless as the tension between the North and South when we discuss climate change.
Speaking at the New Global Financing Pact ceremony in Paris, France, on June 22-23, President Ruto said China remains Kenya's close partner in its infrastructure development.
"As we discuss this new financing system, we value the incredible support by the multilateral development institutions, World Bank and IMF. We also have a wonderful relationship with China, they finance our infrastructure development.
"The tension between the West and China is unhelpful, unnecessary and is as useless as the tension between the North and South when we discuss climate change. That's not necessary. We must find a formula that will bring all our financing to respond to three issues: Urgency, scale and make it more affordable," Ruto said at a panel of French President Emmanuel Macron, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva and her World Bank counterpart Ajay Banga.
This was followed by a meeting by Kuria with China Ambassador Zhou Pingjian in Nairobi on June 27.
CS Kuria said China is a valued partner in Kenya's trade negotiations and Nairobi must tap into its enormous market for its products, as it boosts local production.
"In the County Aggregation and Industrial parks, I have engaged with most governors and we are aggressively looking for investors and China comes in handy. As a government, we have promised to have a well-structured way for the Chinese investors coming into the country as we also guard our local production,” he said.
Since then, there has been an escalation of engagements with China, with President Ruto giving audience to China Foreign Minister Wang Yi in July.
Following the talks, the two sides committed to enhancing cooperation in the BRI, with Ruto emphasising Kenya’s interest in prioritising road development bilaterally and within the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation framework.
Among the projects he cited were upgrade of roads, building a new Greenfield terminal and a new runway at the JKIA and expansion of the ports of Mombasa and Lamu, projects that would make the China Road and Bridge Corporation a big beneficiary when the agreements are signed, given its backing from the Chinese government.
During the talks, it also emerged China would undertake the expansion of the 232km Mau Summit- Rironi highway to the Rift Valley region, which was initially to be undertaken by France.
Infrastructure CS Kipchumba Murkomen and a Chinese delegation led by Deng Li, the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, met in in July to discuss “pending projects in the roads and transport sector as discussed with President Ruto”, setting the stage for the escalation of the deliberations at the highest level during Ruto’s visit.
On July 28, Murkomen announced Kenya and Uganda had signed a deal to extend the SGR to Uganda, from Naivasha, through Kisumu to the Malaba border, connecting to the Kampala route on the Ugandan side.
On September 28, he met his counterpart, Li Xiaopeng in Beijing to discuss the pending projects.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on October 6 said President Ruto would be seeking more financing to complete stalled projects as well as an extension on the repayment timeline of previous Chinese loans.
“Can we talk to see if you can add us time, so we can pay slowly, and add us a little money so we can finish road construction? If we get $1 billion, we will be able to give these people [contractors] the money they are owed so they can return on site so even as we pay the debt, the roads are completed,” Rigathi told Inooro FM.
The President on Tuesday at the investors briefing confirmed Kenya was seeking more funding from China to complete the SGR in a joint bid with Uganda, the DRC and Congo Brazzaville.
According to sources, the deal was expected to be settled on Thursday at the Exim Bank following a meeting between Presidents Xi and Ruto.
Russia, Iran
The President has also engaged other countries from the East, key among them Russia and Iran.
In May, President Ruto met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and agreed to increase trade volumes and cooperate to reform the United Nations Security Council. In July, he hosted Iran President Ebrahim Raisi and signed five MoUs covering ICT, fisheries, animal health and livestock production and promotion of investments.
During the China visit, President Ruto also held talks with Pakistan PM Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, and discussed signing four cooperation agreements in pharmaceutical products and medical equipment.
Kakar was set to make an official visit to Nairobi in September but cancelled it citing “unavoidable pressing engagements”. Pakistan is a close China ally.
Various foreign policy and international analysts say Ruto has been seeking to achieve a balance in his international engagements.
In its manifesto, Kenya Kwanza said it would not only deepen bonds with Kenya's long-standing international and bilateral partners, including the US, the EU, the UK, China, and India, but also extend friendship to "anyone with whom we believe a mutually beneficial relationship can be formed.
Prof Macharia Munene, who teaches International relations at USIU, opines that Ruto would like to appear to balance the West and the East, and has been trying hard to charm his way to acceptance by the West, only it does not seem to work.
"Instead, he gets saddled with appearing to do the bidding of the West. With no help from the West, he then turns to China for a way out but the Chinese appear skeptical. Since his diplomatic balancing act is not balancing, he appears desperate,” Prof Munene says.
For example, Kenya's decision to volunteer to lead the multinational mission to restore order to Haiti, which is already facing legal hurdles, is being interpreted as doing bidding for the US.
Kenya and other African countries need to be strategic to make the best gain out of the new scramble. The problem is that African leaders are playing the yoyo game to please the East and the West rather than pursuing their own interests
America has pledged $100 million for the mission, with Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin signing a five-year security framework during his visit to Nairobi. He said the US was "grateful to Kenya for its leadership in tackling security challenges in the region and around the world".
On his part, Prof Peter Kagwanja of the Africa Policy Institute says there is a scramble for Kenya as a pivotal state in Eastern Africa and it needs to be strategic.
"Kenya and other African countries need to be strategic to make the best gain out of the new scramble. The problem is that African leaders are playing the yoyo game to please the East and the West rather than pursuing their own interests,” Prof Kagwanja says, arguing for positive neutrality — the doctrine of centering your interests above alignment to any ideological or military camp or formation.
For University don Dr Nasongo Muliro, the US has managed to "put Kenya under its steady grip diplomatically speaking".
"President Ruto is gradually moving Kenya-US relations to a level where Kenya-China relations were in the previous Uhuru administration,” Muliro told the Star.
However, he said, President Ruto is sliding into a foreign policy dilemma: Whether to re-energise ties with China and incidentally lose US's new commercial and 'big dollar purse' diplomacy towards Africa, or remain strongly pro-West and lose the opportunity to renegotiate the stifling Chinese debt burden.
"To get off the diplomatic horns of the dilemma, Ruto should adopt strategic neutrality or positive non-alignment, where none of the rival powers should be favoured, except in pursuit of Kenya's National strategic interests,” he said.
Kenya's diplomacy of high-level visit to China will most likely be looking at how to renegotiate Chinese debt, thus allowing room for more borrowing from the now popular front of the West, largely the US, Muliro said.
Details of the debt restructuring and or renegotiation request were not immediately available.
Dr Adhere Cavince, who analyses China-Africa relations, views Ruto's visit as a realisation that China remains one of the key development partners for Kenya., and that no amount of politics can erase that fact.
"The President is alive to the fact that Kenya is facing a number of economic challenges that require global economic opportunities to overcome them. I think China has been very proactive in its development assistance, especially in areas the West has not been very keen on such as infrastructure,” Dr Cavince said.
He, however, opines that the President needs to be pragmatic in his pursuit of his national interests and not pander to any "short-term feel good vibes" that may come from any particular partner.
"Even before the attempts by Washington to re-assert its influence in Nairobi, Kenya had a very productive relationship with both Beijing and Washington: China in the last decade has grown to be Kenya's largest projects financier, trade partner and top source of industrial products.
Washington on the other hand has also been very strong partner for Kenya in terms of social enterprises, as well as in the fight against terrorism. These countries have something to offer Kenya,” Dr Cavince says.
Further, in what he terms as a diplomatic pitfall that Kenya must avoid is the danger of pushing Kenya into a situation of either or corner between Beijing and Washington, and instead fashion a development plan that welcomes all and discriminates none in balancing the competing interests.
In his opening keynote address at the BRI Forum, President Xi said China has become a main trading partner of more than 140 countries and territories and a primary source of investment for more countries.
"We have learned that win-win cooperation is the sure way to success in launching major initiatives that benefit all," he said.
And in what appeared to be a dig at the US, President Xi said, "Viewing others’ development as a threat or taking economic interdependence as a risk will not make one’s own life better or speed up one’s development".
With Ruto having skipped the BRICS Summit but attending the BRI Summit, it still sends mixed signals on his orientation and how he seeks to strike a balance between the two sides in the prevailing geopolitical set up even as he seeks partnerships to revamp the struggling economy.