A few days ago, President Ruto spoke to diffuse tension within Kenya Kwanza after some leaders from the Mt Kenya region proposed a change in his 2027 running mate from Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua to Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro or Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki. "Let me ask all leaders that we focus our attention on the delivery of the assignment given to us by the people of Kenya," the President said.
Such haggling, if allowed to continue, will lead to premature campaigns, which are essentially political campaigns conducted significantly ahead of an election. They can pose several dangers and challenges to the present administration. For starters, this situation can lead to the dilution of policies that the President is gallantly implementing. Strategically, Kenya Kwanza needs to project a unified front, peace within its ranks and focus on service for the people. Besides, perception is just as important as the successful implementation of projects and policy.
At this time, the President is pushing for effective governance, fighting corruption, and having his policies felt in the grassroots. A protracted campaign period hinders effective governance, as elected officials may be more focused on campaigning than on addressing immediate policy challenges. This can contribute to policy gridlock and delayed decision-making because of opposition to some policies out of pure political quibbling.
Right now, the President obviously needs his foot soldiers to speak in one voice and rally the support of Kenyans for his projects. On the contrary, early campaigning will prioritise image-building and political posturing over substantive policy discussions. Candidates will be less inclined to delve into detailed policy proposals, and the public may be left with a less informed understanding of the candidates' positions on critical issues. Some might even begin to poison the chalice if they feel less preferred by the President as they consider 2027.
Kenyans have growingly become apathetic to perennial or prolonged campaigning. Many are disinterested or overwhelmed by extended political messaging, and when 2027 comes, this will manifest itself in voter fatigue and decreased voter turnout, as many individuals lose enthusiasm for the drawn-out electoral process. This will not be a good thing, especially if the 2027 general election happens to be tight as 2022. Haggling within Kenya Kwanza can lead to the erosion of public trust because the lengthy campaigns will cement a cynical public perception of politicians and the Kenyan electoral process. The constant campaigning may contribute to a sense of insincerity and opportunism, eroding trust in political figures.
If some Kenya Kwanza politicians begin grassroots campaigns against one another, they will experience a drain of resources. Running a prolonged campaign requires substantial financial and human resources. Premature campaigning can strain campaign budgets and exhaust the energy of campaign teams, potentially impacting the effectiveness of the campaign closer to the election. This begs the question: what would be the essence of division and political tussling within the leading coalition when resources will be sorely needed in 2027?
It is possible that the political situation can become complicated because possible political shifts can lead to unexpected perceptions. This will put pressure on politicians to keep adjusting their positions or messaging over the course of 2024-2027. Kenyans will be treated to inconsistencies and flip-flopping, undermining the credibility of the coalition and their promises.
There can also be an escalation of negative campaigning. Some politicians from Mt Kenya will want to attack others more viciously to create a difference between them. The result will be a more polarised and divisive political atmosphere in Mt Kenya, which will reverberate to other parts of Kenya because it was a significant block in President Ruto’s win in 2022.
This is a time President Ruto has been pursuing more investment in Kenya as he strives to expand and improve our economy. Prolonged political uncertainty due to early campaigning can have economic consequences because some investors and businesses may delay decisions, leading to economic instability and affecting the overall well-being of the nation. Meticulous UDA politicians will be careful not to trigger such a situation and will instead act like Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki and exclude themselves from the unfortunate banter.
It is unnecessary to inundate the public with political talk at this time, it will only make it challenging for voters to process and discern essential details when the right time comes. This information overload can lead to misinformation and a lack of clarity about candidates' stances. Policies that the current government is implementing are groundbreaking and have required much convincing of stakeholders and the public. These include the Housing plan and the sweeping changes in the health sector. If the rank and file within UDA do not speak as one, getting the public to support policies and act can be like juggling a liver, as the late John Michuki famously put it.
Above all, Kenya Kwanza has very limited time for policy implementation and to deliver for the ordinary Kenyans who overwhelmingly voted Ruto into the presidency. Delays in addressing pressing issues and fulfilling campaign promises will mean a failure to implement and a failed system. The political class is crucial in the implementation of government policy. The Kenya Kwanza political class had better form caucuses to follow up project implementation to ensure effectiveness. It is useful to strike a balance, be strategic and use this time well because it shall run out.
The opposition has major problems of its own. However, a Kenya Kwanza at loggerheads with itself can give them ammunition in political messaging. Apart from claims about corruption and failure to respect and adhere to the law, Azimio has had little to push to the public as they have sought to disparage the ruling coalition party. If the opposition were to benefit from any political class deserters from Kenya Kwanza, they would have more force and credibility. UDA politicians from the Mt Kenya region can avoid prioritising short-term popularity over principle and recognise the pitfalls of political expediency.
The writer is a political commentator