But the general consensus within
the country is that they should have seen it coming. Everyone seems to believe
they told them so, but the top dogs in the Orange party weren’t in the listening mood
when things looked rosy.
To be fair, there
are not many political leaders in this country who would resist the allure of
state largesse and trappings of power. With the demise of Raila Odinga, when the attention shifted to his erstwhile surrogates, and
goodies ¾ including
cash, chase cars, extra security and unfettered access to State House - suddenly became available,
there was always just one direction to go: towards the gravy train.
On paper, ODM,
specifically the Oburu-Wanga faction, has fallen out with President William
Ruto’s UDA over claims that the latter is encroaching on the former’s territory
and not only planting its own aspirants in the coming elections, but also
rejecting any zoning considerations demanded by the Orange party.
In reality, one can
safely state that the two parties are simply as different as day and night.
Ideologically, what Raila built and sustained for 20 years, was a social
justice movement that was programmed to question everything, and to critically
examine its path before taking any plunge.
That a few leaders in the party were
willing to rush head-on into deals was a guarantee that they would be at
variance with the membership at all levels.
I am certain that
President Ruto knew that the further he drew in a few ODM leaders, the further
he pushed them away from the membership. In a previous piece here, I pointed
out that it seemed to me that this was in fact the plan; cage the ODM
leadership in an unpopular arrangement, have them expel the popular rebel group
from the party and then make the remaining leaders beholden to you, but
alienated from the membership. They walked right into the trap.
The Orange party leadership
cannot claim now not to have seen it all coming. The mistakes and red flags
were too glaring to miss. The very first one was the manner in which Raila’s
position as party leader was filled just hours after his death.
There is
nothing in the party constitution that requires the post to be filled so
urgently when it falls vacant. Indeed, given that the former Prime
Minister had three deputies,
it was in fact possible to proceed with his funeral rites and properly convene
a new party leader.
But the rush to
instal Raila’s brother, Oburu Oginga, as acting party leader, was engineered to
stop any “difficult” individual from emerging via consensus as the preferred
successor.
That was the first mistake. This is the roundabout way of saying
that those who had designs on the party were never comfortable with the
possible emergence of independent-minded Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, as
party leader, and needed to block this possibility while confusion still
reigned over Raila’s death.
The second mistake
was the sheer amount of time spent by the party in the poorly handled attempt
to remove secretary-general Edwin Sifuna, who led the reformist, true-to-ODM principles wing.
Immediately after Raila’s death, nearly all meetings of the party’s organs,
obviously egged on by state machinery, focused largely on how to remove the SG.
It deepened existing divisions, while wasting the party a whole six months in a
pursuit that wasn’t an emergency to begin with. Indeed, the attempted process
itself was so mired in illegality, that one could clearly see that the
leadership was simply acting under pressure to get the Sifuna matter off their
hands.
The third, and
possibly most fatal long-term mistake, was the failure by the new ODM
leadership to acknowledge that none of them could be another Raila.
The
departed leader’s own daughter warned, during the party’s 20th anniversary bash
in Mombasa, that the broad- based arrangement had been so complicated that only
Raila had known how to navigate its delicate dynamics.
On taking over, the
Oburu-led faction made Raila-level promises and plans, and proceeded as if it
enjoyed Raila-level support among the masses. President Ruto must have been
secretly smiling with glee.
Because truth be said, even if you were to factor
in Luoland alone, none of the remaining ODM leaders could and can make the
assumption that they will rally a homogenous tribal vote behind a specific
candidate.
If anything, in the absence of Raila, the community has felt
emboldened to openly discuss some of the bad practices perpetuated by the party
over the years, while adopting a ‘never again’ attitude.
The final mistake
was the style of negotiation. ODM was too enthusiastic and too willing to enter
into a coalition with UDA that it became a more aggressive campaigner for
Ruto’s second term, than even UDA insiders and members. In a way, it exposed
the desperation within the party, painting it as one without any options.
At any rate, the initial
elevation of 83-year-old Oburu to party leader had already removed any bite
from weak threats that some members of the party later made, stating that they
would present Oburu as their 2027 presidential candidate if negotiations
failed.
A proper
negotiation only happens when preconditions and bare minimums are placed on the
table in advance. But ODM first dismissed former DP Rigathi Gachagua’s
opposition team as an option, before declaring that they were severing ties
with their erstwhile coalition, Azimio.
Rather than increase their perceived
value by leaving the window open for other potential partners, they shut the door on
all options and made Ruto’s the only acceptable deal. It was always going to be
downhill from there.
A lot has happened
on Kenya’s political scene since Raila passed on. There are discernible changes
that no one can wish away, not least the fact that broad-based ODM’s attempt to
remove its SG ended up with Sifuna becoming a national sensation and creating
his own Linda Mwananchi movement to rival ODM’s Linda Ground.
Depending on whom
you ask, Sifuna has managed to steal a large portion of the party’s support
base, slicing away what the ODM-UDA negotiators are probably placing on the
table as part of their realm.
If anything, if I
were President Ruto, I would be wondering which one to negotiate with, the
energetic, youth-driven and lively Sifuna movement, compared to the slow-coach
Oburu faction, which depends on the state to try and sustain a fast-fading
support base.
It will soon be clear to all who care to see and understand, that
the people’s love for Raila was never transferable. No single politician or
family member can stand upon his legacy and promise anyone support based on the
former PM’s influence.
After his death, every politician previously aligned to
Raila will work their own way up and build their own support.
While we’re at it,
all actors will be aware that a new order has taken over Kenyan politics, in
which ageing politicos associated with the old system of big-man political
parties and fraudulent primaries are staring at a bleak future.
The youth
revolution will define and inform the 2027 election. So, the “old ODM” might
sit in a room and negotiate until kingdom come, but they will be rudely awakened
to the reality that the membership they flaunt in those deal-making sessions
has walked out! And that will be a good thing for our politics!
