NJAU: Why Ruto's defeat in Ol Kalou could reshape Mt Kenya politics

The by-election on Thursday last week had evolved into a symbolic battle between President Ruto and former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, after months of bitter rivalry following their falling out and the DP’s impeachment.

Political analysts say that for the President, victory would have helped reinforce the narrative that he still commands significant support in Mt Kenya despite Gachagua's exit from government.

Instead, the outcome in one part of the mountain has emboldened the DCP leader’s camp while prompting analysis and soul-searching within UDA.

Political analyst and Juja parliamentary aspirant Waruiru Waithaka during an interview with The Star argued the Ol Kalou by-election was less about the parliamentary seat and more about the battle for perception and control of the narrative.

Waithaka argued that in modern Kenyan politics, perception often shapes political reality, influencing how voters, aspiring candidates and party leaders position themselves long before campaigns officially begin.

"The real contest in Ol Kalou was about perception. Both the government and the opposition wanted to create the impression that they have the momentum heading into 2027 because politics is as much about what people believe as it is about the actual numbers," he said.

Waithaka said the significance of the by-election lies not only in who emerged victorious but in the political narrative it has created.

"In the run-up to 2027, the battle will increasingly be about who can persuade Kenyans, and particularly Mt Kenya voters, that they are the movement with the momentum.

“Perception has become a political currency, and those who successfully shape it stand to attract more allies, resources and public support."

Senate Deputy Majority leader and Nakuru Senator Tabitha Karanja during a recent media briefing this week openly blamed a powerful clique surrounding President Ruto for the party's defeat.

Karanja argued the Ol Kalou outcome was not a rejection of UDA's candidate but rather a protest vote against what she described as arrogance, opulence, violence and inflammatory rhetoric by some senior leaders allied to the President.

"It is time the President reconstitutes his inner circle because those around him are damaging his image and were responsible for what happened in Ol Kalou," she said.

She argued that many elected leaders are quietly reconsidering their political future within UDA because of dissatisfaction with the conduct of a small but influential group around the presidency.

"UDA was once the most popular party in the country, but because of the mistakes of this small circle, many leaders no longer want to be associated with it as we approach the next election," she said.

Meanwhile, Gachagua has seized on the Ol Kalou by-election outcome as evidence that political momentum in Mt Kenya is shifting away from President Ruto.

Speaking during a television interview on Wednesday, he said the result did not come as a surprise, arguing that it merely confirmed what he had observed during months of grassroots engagements across the region following his fallout with the President.

"I knew it would happen. I knew victory was certain. I was only waiting to see the margin because I know the mountain," Gachagua said.

The former DP maintained that the by-election reflects growing public confidence in his political movement and validates his claim that he remains the dominant political voice in Mt Kenya.

His allies have portrayed the victory as a signal that the region is rallying behind his leadership.

Nyandarua Senator and DCP secretary-general designate John Methu has intensified the opposition’s attacks against Ruto, declaring that leaders from different regions are coordinating efforts to unseat him,

Speaking in an interview with a local TV station on Sunday, July 19, Methu used combative language to describe what he termed a nationwide campaign to remove Ruto from office, saying opposition leaders would mobilise support from every corner of the country.

“We have to hunt him down from all directions,” Methu said. “We want the people of Western to unite and hunt him down from that side. Gachagua will be leading us from Mt Kenya, and Matiang’i will be uniting with the people from Gusii land. Sifuna and Natembeya will unite from the Western, and they will hunt him down from that direction.”

Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata recently acknowledged that Gachagua remains a formidable political force in the Mt Kenya region.

"It is true that Wamunyoro is the voice of that region in terms of his political impact and therefore we all knew DCP would win. They deserved it because of the effort they have put in," Kang'ata said.

Kiamwangi MCA Kung’u Smart, like others, has argued the DCP win in Ol Kalou is less about the one seat and more about the message it sends.

Kung’u said the outcome does not determine the outcome of 2027, but it sends a strong signal about voters’ mood, at least in one part of Mt Kenya.

"Politics is driven by perceptions of where political momentum lies. If leaders conclude that Gachagua currently enjoys greater grassroots support, some may seek accommodation within his camp ahead of 2027 and vice versa,” he said.

The New Democrats (TND) Party leader chairman Thuo Mathenge on Thursday told the Star Gachagua is currently the most influential political leader in the Mt Kenya region. He said his party is ready to work with the former DP.

Mathenge said TND was prepared to either dissolve the party or enter into a coalition with Gachagua's DCP to consolidate the region’s political voice.

"As things stand today, Rigathi Gachagua is the most popular political leader in the Mt Kenya region,” he said. “Our priority is to unite the region, and if that means dissolving TND or forming a coalition with DCP, we are ready to do so because unity is bigger than individual parties.”

DP Kithure Kindiki, from Tharaka Nithi in Mt Kenya East, vowed not to allow attempts to politically divide the Mt Kenya region. He spoke during a thanksgiving service for the Embu Anglican Diocese at St Mark's Teachers Training College in Kigari, Embu county.

"I don't want our people speaking in different voices. We have achieved a lot together, share a long history, and there is nothing that should divide us,” Kindiki said.

“As Deputy President, I will do everything possible to ensure Mt Kenya remains united and that our communities continue to move forward together."

He also urged the region to remain firmly behind Ruto, saying his reelection would strengthen Mt Kenya's influence in government and provide the clearest path to the region eventually producing the country's next head of state.

"We need to have an honest conversation with our people. After President William Ruto, it is Mt Kenya's turn. The other team is far down the queue — they will have to wait for many years," Kindiki said.

He spoke just days after Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku sparked debate by appearing to draw a political distinction between Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West.

Ruku, a close Ruto ally, said the that following the Ol Kalou outcome, the political mood in Mt Kenya West should not be taken as representative of the entire region.

"We as Mt Kenya East do not care what happens in Mt Kenya West," Ruku posted on social media.

Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri dismissed suggestions that Gachagua's political movement poses a major threat to Ruto's support in Mt Kenya. He described the former DP's latest push as ordinary party politics rather than a political earthquake.

Speaking during a recent interview on Inooro TV, Kiunjuri downplayed claims of an impending political tsunami in the region.

“We will not allow anyone to divide the Mt Kenya region for personal gain; we need our people to make their own decision without being incited by anyone,” Kiunjuri said.

He urged the people of the mountain to preach unity, saying people are more interested in economic development than political rhetoric.

A day after UDA's defeat in Ol Kalou, Ruto struck a conciliatory tone, urging leaders to put political differences aside and focus on delivery of tangible projects and services. He spoke at State House, Nairobi, while hosting Bungoma county leaders headed by Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa

Ruto acknowledged the electorate's verdict and said the winner deserved respect.

"The people of Ol Kalou made their choice. Our responsibility now is to work together and serve them because leaders will ultimately be judged by their performance, not political rhetoric," he said.

The President cautioned against divisive politics, saying leaders should reject attempts to pit communities against one another.

"Do not allow those who want to divide us along ethnic lines to succeed. That is foolish politics," he said.