Deputy President William Ruto is having the last laugh after ODM chief Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta's Mt Kenya backyard climbed down on radical BBI proposals.
Appearing to have beaten Raila in his own game, the DP has emerged the biggest winner of a political contest that has seen Raila drop his initial hardline position for a parliamentary system.
Raila's anti-climax on the push for a parliamentary system with a powerful prime minister -although it has jolted his supporters- offers his main rival, the DP, massive political bonanza.
The DP would now latch on to Raila's 'false-start' to launch an aggressive onslaught against his political credentials even as the Building Bridges Initiative wave barrels the country.
Ruto has often accused Raila of being the 'master of political deceit and conmanship', a position he is expected to maintain to counter the BBI storm that analysts say threatens his 2022 fortunes.
While Raila also abandoned his push for regional governments - another key plank of his constitutional amendment campaign - it is dropping off a powerful PM bid that appears to offer Ruto much impetus.
Raila initially wanted the creation of 14 regional governments - a third-layer of government - an idea that was strongly opposed by Ruto.
“Raila just gave Ruto another political masterstroke and should be prepared for the far-reaching political consequences,” said political scientist Wycliffe Mugenda.
“Ruto is now more emboldened than ever to counter Raila's narrative. It is disastrous when a politician throws his ideals to the garbage trash for short-term expediency,” Mugenda told the Star of Raila's move to abandon his long-held reform agenda.
Belgut MP Nelson Koech, a key Ruto ally, yesterday told the Star that Raila succumbed to Kenyans' voice of reason against a powerful PM, a post he said is so unpopular in the country.
“Raila has always believed he has the wherewithal to block other leaders from ascending to power. It is unfortunate that he (Raila) thought that by supporting the parliamentary system he would easily ride to power,” Koech said.
Raila, a former prime minister in the grand coalition government between 2008-2013, has been campaigning for a parliamentary system with a powerful prime minister and two deputies.
The ex-PM's standpoint had set him on a collision path with Ruto, a tenacious politician who campaigns day and night despite criticism from his 2022 opponents.
Ruto's critics have accused him of launching early 2022 campaigns and undermining his boss President Uhuru Kenyatta but the former Eldoret North MP has been traversing the country nonetheless.
The BBI push has been interpreted by the DP's juggernaut as one of the many schemes by his detractors within the establishment to vanquish his State House dream by propelling Raila.
“From the word go, BBI was meant to isolate the DP. The crafters of the strategy were clear that they wanted to derail Ruto's ambitions,” said North Mugirango MP Joash Nyamoko.
Nyamoko, a key ally of Ruto from Kisii, told the Star that Ruto's star continues to shine and those determined to dim it should be prepared for a rude shock.
“The coming elections would be historic, they would be historic because, for the first time in history, Kenyans will deal a deadly blow to the dynasties,” he added.
Ruto has sustained his aggressive onslaught against a complete overhaul of the country's governance model to usher in a parliamentary architecture, to the chagrin of Raila's camp.
The DP has been consistent that a few politicians and 'perennial losers' were plotting to sneak to power by expanding the executive because they don't believe in a fair competition in which they accept defeat.
Since the 2018 handshake that isolated Ruto, Raila has on several occasions argued that a parliamentary system would end electoral theft and give a fair chance to "small tribes" to produce a President.
Sensing that such a proposal, however, remained unpopular among the ruling elite, Raila abandoned it and decided to climb down from an executive PM push.
Yesterday, ODM national treasurer Timothy Bosire told the Star that Raila having served both in government and in the opposition knows the best system for the country.
Defending Raila's u-turn, Bosire who is the ex-Kitutu Masaba MP said Raila means well for the country.
“The Raila I know and whom I have interacted with for the last 18 years always means well for the country. I dare say, he holds the country's interests at heart,” Bosire said.
He added, “That is why he has made unpopular concessions because he knows all too well what it means. He is not after power.”
In 2010, Raila made a similar surprise U-turn and accepted the current presidential system to the consternation of his men.
The ex-PM's latest change of heart has triggered jitters in his camp over fears he was abandoning his long-held reform agenda.
However, the DP's allies are excited and believe they have finally cornered Raila.
“We have held the view that Raila was not genuine in his push for a parliamentary system. We have finally been vindicated that the ODM leader abandoned the idea upon realising that the majority of Kenyans do not believe in it,” said Soi MP Caleb Kositany, a key Ruto ally.
Kositany who is also the Jubilee party deputy secretary general told the Star that Raila was going nowhere with his plan for a powerful prime minister.
“Raila sensed defeat in his own game. The manoeuvres and schemes at play were targeting only one man, William Ruto,” the MP said.
The DP has opposed the introduction of a parliamentary system with a powerful PM and two deputies claiming it was a scheme by the dynasties to retain power after 2022 polls.
In what was seen as a strategy to beat Raila in the executive PM bid, Ruto had alleged that the opposition leader was leading a campaign to sponsor radical proposals to alter the original BBI report.
The BBI report that was launched in November last year by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila at the Bomas of Kenya gave the parliamentary system proposal a wide berth and only prescribed a weaker PM with two deputies.
Immediately it was launched, Ruto and his brigade - who had initially demonstrated resistance - welcomed the report and said they would rally behind its proposals.
However, an aggressive campaign in BBI rallies across the country had seen Raila's allies pitch for a powerful PM with his ODM party leaders saying they would sponsor amendments to the report.
However, when ODM submitted its proposals to the Yusuf Haji team last week, the party proposed a PM appointed by the President from the majority party with the approval of Parliament.
This is the same proposal contained in the BBI report. The President's backyard, which has been critical of a powerful PM proposal, also endorsed a weaker PM with two deputies.
The push for a powerful PM could have been counterproductive to Raila's bid to woo Mt Kenya.
At the same time, Mt Kenya's decision to stick to one-man-one-vote mantra would be a major boost for Ruto who is busy courting the region for a return of favour in 2022 polls.
The BBI team is conducting a validation exercise for its report with sessions in Nairobi even as Raila leads countrywide rallies to popularise the BBI report with a referendum beckoning.
