A political miscalculation by impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua not to sign any agreement with his boss William Ruto ahead of the 2022 polls has exposed him severely.
This is unlike most of the Kenya Kwanza political linchpins who entered into solid pacts with President Ruto’s UDA party, securing their positions in government from arbitrary ouster.
There are political indications, that Gachagua’s fortunes could be hurt further once he is kicked out of the UDA party as deputy party leader and member in the coming days.
On Wednesday, Gachagua revealed what looked like a tale of regrets after he told the people of his Mount Kenya region to remain calm and only make their voices heard at the right time.
“We in Mount Kenya region don’t like making noise or protesting in the streets, we wait at the opportune time to do the necessary and make our voice heard,’’ Gachagua said during a funeral in Limuru, Kiambu County.
While towering Kenya Kwanza principals inked deals protected in law, Gachagua trusted President Ruto’s goodwill as he hit the campaign trail.
Some participated in Gachagua's alleged betrayal by overseeing his removal from office.
“Gachagua’s negotiations with Ruto might have been quietly done in the boardroom but were never captured anywhere,’’ political analyst Mwangi Kinyanjui said.
Ruto was the man to beat in the Mt Kenya region, and many analysts argue that the president could have swept the region even if he picked any other running mate from the same region.
Kithure Kindiki was seen as the frontrunner for the second in command position ahead of the 2022 polls, but hours of haggling at Ruto’s Karen Residence settled on Gachagua given his fiery and no-holds-barred campaign strategy.
During the 2022 campaigns, Gachagua was forced to calm jitters within his Mt Kenya backyard after politicians raised concerns about the lack of a binding agreement with President William Ruto.
“As Mt Kenya region, we do not need to sign any agreement with President William Ruto because he is our son and he is a gentleman. We have trusted his word and I have told our leaders that we don’t need any agreement,’’ Gachagua said during a campaign rally in Nyeri in May 2022.
Analysts now argue that Gachagua’s words have come back to haunt him as President Ruto’s men push to hound him out of the UDA where he is serving as the deputy party leader.
UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar on Tuesday said that the party’s National Executive Committee will sit and kick out Gachagua as the deputy party leader immediately after his court cases are concluded.
A three-judge bench of the High Court will on Thursday rule whether to extend conservatory Orders that blocked the swearing-in of Gachagua’s successor, Professor Kithure Kindiki.
If the court lifts the orders, then Kindiki could be sworn into office as the country’s second in command as early as Friday morning, ending Gachagua’s tenure as deputy president.
Political analysts argue that Gachagua has no say in the rank and file of the UDA party because he has no binding agreement with President Ruto.
“It is true, Gachagua is severely exposed because unlike some of the Kenya Kwanza bigwigs, he has no solid pact within UDA or Kenya Kwanza that can insulate him against mischief,’’ said political analyst Alexander Nyamboga.
The analyst argues that Gachagua’s bane emanated from his failure to see ahead and force an agreement with President Ruto before accepting being his running mate.
“Had Gachagua been properly guided to force his backyard into signing a deal with President Ruto, it would have been very difficult to kick him out of office and by extension UDA,’’ he added.
Except for Gachagua, other big shots in Kenya Kwanza entered into structured agreements with President Ruto that even captured power-sharing agreements.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi joined Kenya Kwanza after signing a deal under the ANC party, with the agreement securing his position in government.
He later resigned as ANC party leader after assuming office as PCS with the party already in advanced plans to dissolve and join UDA.
Moses Wetang’ula is another Kenya Kwanza bigwig who signed a pre-election agreement with Kenya Kwanza alliance through his Ford Kenya party.
The agreement ring-fenced his position as National Assembly Speaker including a share of other plum government jobs including Cabinet Secretaries, Principal Secretaries and ambassadorial posts.
Other Kenyan Kwanza big guns who signed deals with Kenya Kwanza include Labour Cabinet Secretary Alfred Mutua of Maendeleo Chap Chap and Public Service CS Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party.
Senate Speaker Amason Kingi of the PAA party was another leader who signed a deal with Kenya Kwanza, securing his place within the outfit and the speaker’s position.
The agreements which were unveiled during a public event at a Nairobi Hotel ahead of the 2022 polls, secured the leaders’ positions as principals in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
The move insulated them against any arbitrary removal from office unless the exit clause in the agreement was invoked.
It has now emerged that Gachagua’s failure to enter into structured negotiations with President Ruto to secure his position and place in the KK alliance left him exposed to mischief.
The impeached DP was among the founding members of UDA and was seen as having suffered most at the hands of former president Uhuru Kenyatta as he rallied for Ruto in the Mount Kenya region.
During the campaigns, Gachagua antagonised Uhuru’s support in Mount Kenya, whittling down the influence of the Jubilee party across the region from a popular party that swept seats in 2017 to a small outfit with less than 30 MPs.
Gachagua has the option of forming his own party if he is kicked out of UDA ahead of the 2027 polls.
He would then use his party to enter into a coalition with other like-minded parties amid indications that he could team up with Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka.
Musyoka has been defending him against the UDA onslaught and even visited him in his hospital bed at the Karen Hospital.
Gachagua
recently expressed regret for supporting Ruto without a political party to back
him.
“As we went into the elections, nobody trusted him (Ruto). Mudavadi, Wetangula, Kingi, and Mutua demanded an MoU with him. I was the only one who trusted him verbally because we are Christians. We used to attend church together, and as a Christian, I believed a fellow Christian would never betray me or my people,'' he said during an interview last month.
"We have made many mistakes in life and continue to learn. The people of Mt Kenya and I trusted President Ruto, believing he would never betray us.”