If elections were held today, President William Ruto would be in a big mess.
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga might help, so he cannot survive without him.
It is a question of hope that Raila’s coattails still have magic.
Of course, Raila has run a few races and always comes near but doesn’t cross the line.
Ruto wishes Raila would still have the same influence.
Ruto could be looking at keeping Rift Valley under his grip, with a potential three million votes.
If Raila can pull another five million, that would be about eight million.
With Rift Valley intact, the question would be getting the other regions to go along.
Even so, it is a hope that is hinged on many factors, including that Raila has lost some ground.
It would have worked if we were at the best of times as a country - but that is not the case.
The economic situation is getting worse and institutions are collapsing.
The Raila magic may not work. Raila is also busy looking for a job in Addis Ababa. He has a big chance but it is not guaranteed.
If he wins, Ruto will take credit for having nominated him and funded the campaign.
It will be one successful campaign he can talk about. At the same time, if Raila goes to Addis, he will have a problem pulling the crowds from there.
There is also the factor of ‘Young Turks’ who want to be recognised as leaders of the lake region.
Even if Ruto would claim he helped, he would not have the Raila crowd.
If Raila doesn’t go to Addis, he may want to be a candidate.
He may see Ruto as vulnerable and therefore have a chance to take over. But Raila has a habit of defeating himself.
In 2022, he had the best chance but lost to Ruto, largely owing to the disorganisation in his campaign.
There was also the
factor of voter apathy.
e situation, therefore, doesn’t
look good for Ruto now or in 2027.
