Heavy rains are expected in many parts of Kenya this week, the weatherman has said. November is the peak month for short rains season.
The ongoing downpour will continue throughout the month with varying intensities and some breaks.
Kennedy Thiong’o, the deputy director of climate services at the Kenya Meteorological Department, said some places will experience heavy storms this week.
“Rainfall is expected to continue over the highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, Southeastern lowlands, Coast, Northwestern and Northeastern Kenya. Isolated heavy rainfall events may occur over some parts of these regions,” he said in a statement.
The five-day forecast comes as weather agencies around the world pushed back the start of La Nina, which brings dry weather to Kenya.
The US Climate Prediction Centre said a La Niña is still in the cards but it will be weak and short.
The chances of the phenomenon forming between now and December is 57 per cent, it said.
“The team still favours onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have shorter duration than other historical episodes,” the centre said.
“In summary, La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 ( 57 per cent chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.”
A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional impacts.
La Nina mostly results in droughts in Kenya. It can only be officially confirmed if the pacific temperatures consistently drop to at least -0.5 degrees celsisus, a threshold that has not been met so far this year.
Forecasts around the world had initially predicted a clearer shift to La Niña by mid-year, but these forecasts have proven inaccurate.
The US climate centre says there is growing difficulty in predicting precise El Nino/La Nina patterns because of climate change.
The favourable, rainy weather this year has helped bring down food prices in Kenya.
Maize farmers, for instance, experienced a significant shift in the market as the national average wholesale price for a 90kg bag of maize dropped from Sh3,450 in May to Sh3,250 in June.
The Food and Nutrition Security report, released in August, attributed the drop to favourable weather conditions, increased supply and market dynamics.
The report was released by the State Department of Agriculture. The highest wholesale price was reported in Bomet, Busia and Kwale counties at Sh4,500 per 90kg bag.
The lowest wholesale price was reported in Trans
Nzoia and Uasin Gishu counties at Sh2,500 for a 90kg
bag.
