There is no doubt the country has veered into a state of permanent electioneering such that once we come off another stolen or disputed election, we are immediately talking about the next one.
Unfortunately, that is where we are, as jockeying and realignment are already underway for 2027 since President William Ruto showed his then-deputy Rigathi Gachagua the door.
Technically, Ruto can say he did not do such a thing as the National Assembly impeached Rigathi, and the Senate voted to remove him from office.
However, whether Ruto was instrumental in getting Rigathi chased out of office is neither here nor there. What matters is that Rigathi is suffering the indignity of being stripped of power and all that comes with it while pondering his future.
A future that no doubt centres on the 2027 election, which has gone into high gear since his removal from office.
The former DP is not the only one posturing for 2027; the entire country is, especially the Mt Kenya region, where it is clear Ruto is no longer the darling he was there leading up to the 2022 election.
The question is, who is best positioned to give Ruto a run for his money in 2027?
That question, in turn, depends on asking and answering the question of who is best positioned to politically finish Ruto in Mt Kenya.
Starting with the second question, it is important to note contrary to what the narrative seems to be, the President is not quite finished politically in the region.
Yes, he is no longer the darling in that region that he was leading up to 2023, but by creatively using the power of incumbency and the ever-proven effectiveness of brown envelopes, Ruto can easily gobble enough votes in the region to add to the basket he would need before padding in 2027 to sneak back to State House.
Ruto’s Mt Kenya problem is also simplified by the fact that the region does not presently have a commanding leader who can harness the anti-Ruto energy there to vanquish the President before and after the next general election.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka continues to prove that he is a lightweight without Raila. My good friend Martha Karua has a Kamala Harris problem.
There has been talk of Muhuho Kenyatta and Jimmy Wanjigi as potential contenders, but each has negatives that outweigh the positives. Wanjigi not as much, but he would not give Ruto a run for his money as a more formidable candidate would.
This leaves Gachagua as the only likely standing man to take on Ruto, but he has two immediate problems that would make the task more onerous for him than for Ruto to vanquish him.
First, there is the constitution.
Because he was impeached, he is barred from vying for any public office.
The constitutionality of the provision that bars an impeached person from vying for public office has never been challenged so, theoretically, he can challenge the constitutionality of the provision and have it annulled, but that would be a long shot.
The second problem for Rigathi is Rigathi himself. Although he has eaten humble pie and is trying hard to come across as this humble and innocent village elder since his impeachment and removal from office, he remains unpopular beyond his own backyard of Nyeri.
Having no clear force to reckon in Mt Kenya to take on and completely dislodge Ruto, it follows there won’t be anyone to take on and deny the head of state a second term nationwide.
There are those, possibly including himself, who have planted stories in the media or have been mentioning a certain former minister as a potential candidate, but those who know him best will tell you contrary to the false public perception about him, he has character flaws that render him unqualified to be president.
Those who know him even better will tell you it’s a joke to even seriously mention him as a potential candidate.
This only leaves one person to take on Ruto and give him a run for his money: Raila
The writer is a legal analyst and political commentator based in US
