The formation of an opposition movement against President William Ruto’s second-term bid faces a myriad of challenges, with several major political hurdles standing in the way of a unified ticket.
The anti-Ruto brigade must weather early suspicions of betrayal, confront the mammoth task of identifying a Presidential flagbearer and determine the political vehicle they will use.
Additionally, the movement must craft a formula that accommodates regional kingpins, find a role for smaller parties, tackle fears of political moles planted as spoilers and address ambitions of prominent figures reluctant to play second fiddle.
Other obstacles include navigating Kenya’s notoriously slippery political landscape to maintain unity until 2027 and handling the delicate matter of Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment and its potential consequences.
The Opposition movement must also devise a compelling rallying call that resonates with Kenyans, while dealing with image concerns tied to past controversies surrounding key figures in the camp.
As President Ruto nears the halfway mark of his first term, political heavyweights are already plotting a formidable offensive to ensure he remains a one-term leader.
PLAYERS IN THE ANTI-RUTO CAMP
Several key figures are at the heart of this emerging political formation include Ruto’s former allies. Among the principal players in the anti-Ruto coalition are former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
The movement also includes Democratic Action Party-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i and Narc Kenya boss Martha Karua.
Gachagua has vowed to spearhead a political revolution. Speaking at the unveiling of the DAP-K headquarters, he emphasised the need for unity and sacrifice.
“Let’s not talk about who will be the candidate. Our mission is to oust that man (Ruto) from power in 2027. We have the numbers and what we need to do is consolidate our regions,” Gachagua stated.
A significant impediment to Gachagua’s political ambitions is his impeachment as the country’s Number Two. He is legally barred from running for public office - unless the courts overturn his removal.
Gachagua, who is riding on Ruto’s alleged betrayal of Mount Kenya, could be the kingmaker if he does not run for President.
The former DP has consolidated support in his Mt Kenya backyard, having recently met with Karua.
He has hosted a series of strategic meetings at his Wamunyoro residence to solidify regional backing.
Gachagua aims to deliver approximately eight million votes from Mount Kenya counties, challenging his coalition partners to push for voter registration to bolster their numbers.
Gachagua has attributed his ouster as the country’s second in command to not having his own party, which would have secured a watertight coalition agreement with Ruto.
He is now set to unveil his political party next month, following his removal as UDA’s deputy party leader. The launch signals a broader strategy: to strengthen regional parties before merging them into a formidable coalition to challenge Ruto in 2027.
“In the next few days, I will launch my political vehicle, which will be the choice for the people of Mount Kenya. We have agreed that in our region, there will be no UDA and no yellow colours,” he affirmed.
CHOOSING A FLAGBEARER
One of the most significant challenges facing the opposition is the selection of a Presidential candidate, with Mount Kenya likely to play hardball due to its numerical advantage.
Following his rejection from the mountain, Ruto has focused on Western Kenya as his fall back plan, posing a challenge for Gachagua’s camp to penetrate the region.
There are concerns about whether Kalonzo Musyoka would accept another running mate position after sacrificing his ambitions in 2013, 2017 and 2022 to support Raila Odinga.
Kalonzo and Karua are among the most seasoned politicians in the alliance, which is expected to be branded the ‘People’s Alliance.’
However, reports indicate that former President Uhuru Kenyatta might back Matiang’i.
On Monday, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka revealed that Matiang’i would join the camp in the coming months, after concluding his contract with the World Bank.
“I want to confirm that my brother Matiang’i sent me here with greetings and has assured me that he is fully with this team,” Onyonka announced during the DAP-K headquarters launch.
FORMING A POLITICAL VEHICLE
Another significant dilemma facing the alliance is the choice of a political vehicle for the 2027 elections. Each luminary is keen on strengthening individual parties before negotiations begin.
Coalition members must decide whether to form a single coalition party or an alliance of individual parties backing a common Presidential candidate.
In the 2022 elections, 26 political outfits formed the Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya Coalition Party, which backed Raila. In contrast, Ruto was the UDA Presidential flagbearer under the Kenya Kwanza alliance, which comprised 11 parties.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua predicts that the opposition movement will struggle to agree on both the Presidential candidate and the political structure.
“There will be intense competition that will delay the coalition’s formation and the naming of its flagbearer. Gachagua’s camp faces a series of hurdles that must be overcome for the movement to take off,” he said.
THE RISK OF POLITICAL MOLES
Another major challenge is the infiltration of political moles. In the run-up to the 2022 elections, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetang’ula’s sudden defection to Ruto’s camp was seen as a key factor in Raila’s narrow loss.
Spoilers, who could contest the Presidency, will split votes and jeopardise the chances of a win. Former Kiambu Governor Ferdinand Waititu underscored the importance of trust and unity.
“We have immense goodwill from Kenyans, but to beat Ruto, we must make personal and collective sacrifices, including setting aside personal ambitions,” Waititu told the Star.
ROLE OF REGIONAL KINGPINS
To mount a formidable campaign, the opposition coalition must assemble a team of regional political pillars who can rally support in their respective strongholds.
These leaders will play a crucial role in securing the minimum 25 per cent of votes required in at least half of Kenya’s counties.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi acknowledged the challenges but urged opposition leaders to prioritise national interests over personal ambitions.
“Kenyans are tired of this regime. If our politicians fall into the temptation of state-sponsored division, history will judge them harshly,” he warned.
THE OMTATAH FACTOR
Busia Senator and anti-corruption crusader Okiya Omtatah poses another challenge to opposition unity. Omtatah is exploring his chances for a Presidential bid, forming a committee to assess the feasibility of his candidacy.
His bid could complicate efforts to rally opposition votes under one candidate, further fragmenting the anti-Ruto camp. Observers say the road to 2027 is fraught with political landmines for the opposition.
The battle lines have been drawn and only time will tell if the opposition can navigate these challenges and emerge victorious in 2027.
