Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s loss in the African
Union Commission chairperson election is no secret going to shape the country’s
2027 polls.
Raila, a seasoned politician, on Saturday lost to Djibouti’s
candidate Ali Youssouf in an election held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The Former prime minister, a battle-scarred campaigner and
an astute mobiliser, enjoys the backing of key bases in the country that could
secure victory for a candidate in 2027.
“From the onset, I knew whether Raila wins or loses the AUC
elections, his particular interest in Kenyan politics would remain. We now
expect him to continue [speaking] with both sides of the mouth,” political
analyst Javas Bigambo told the Star.
Raila’s victory in the election would have seen him abandon the local scene, a development which could have left a void and triggered alignments and realignments.
"He is going to actively take part in local politics. I see him calling for an ODM meeting soon during which he will immediately take over as the party's leader and enter the political field," Barack Muluka, a political analyst said on Saturday in an interview with a local TV station.
Given that the AUC chair serves for a four-year term, which is renewable once, Raila would have automatically been out of the equation in the 2027 election if he had won.
“I am not going to be very active in Kenyan politics henceforth as I continue now to focus on the continental campaign. But it is a transitional phase from active Kenyan politics to continental politics,” Raila said.
Already, talks of Raila’s succession, could he have won the
seat, had dominated the scene with key politicians angling to fill his big
political shoes.
President William Ruto – Raila’s newfound friend – championed his candidature and went flat out to ensure he won but that failed
to materialize.
Political observers had opined that Ruto’s support for Raila
was part of the wider political strategy to get Raila off the local scene and
appease his political support bases in readiness for inheritance if he wins the
seat.
Raila’s bases, pundits said, were to compensate Ruto for the
‘lost’ Mt Kenya vote basket.
“Certainly, Raila determines Ruto’s re-election in 2027,
especially with the latest development in the country’s politics,”
lawyer-cum-political observer Elias Mutuma told the Star ahead of the
election.
Raila is deemed to have solid support bases that would have
worked well for Ruto in replacing the restive Mt Kenya region, which feels
betrayed by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment.
“For Ruto to win 2027, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt
Kenya West, which is likely to vote as a bloc, now out, he needs a replacement
which he found in Raila and his Nyanza backyard,” Mutuma said.
By backing Raila, Ruto is believed to have anticipated his
endorsement in 2027, a move that could have given him an edge over his
competitors.
“I have put my foot
down to ensure Raila wins the coveted seat. He has all the qualifications to lead
the commission,” Ruto said.
In the opposition, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka who has been
keen to secure Raila’s backing is seeking new alliances after Ruto and the
former PM supposedly struck a political deal.
“Raila and I agreed (to work together). You know there was a
time I helped Raila and this time round he has helped me, why should anyone
find a problem with that?”
Ruto posed while addressing a mammoth crowd in Kondele,
Kisumu county in November last year, signalling their political deal.
If Raila had won the AUC chair race, he would have been
expected to remain neutral and focus on continental issues, coordinating the
commission’s work, implementing decisions and representing Africa in
international forums, rather than being intertwined in the politics of any
single member state.
But following his loss, Raila would likely return to local politics, a move that is going
to throw Ruto, young Turks and old guards keen to inherit his political bases
off-balance.
The former prime minister could play the kingmaker role for
whoever he backs, but could also spoil the party if he decides to go for the
country’s top seat again.
Political analysts say that Raila’s return to local politics
could either make or break Ruto and other bigwigs in the elections.
“Raila could feel cheated and he might come back a very
charged man and run [for President]. If that happens, that will completely
change the dynamics for all these players, especially Ruto,” political analyst
Martin Andati said.
Bigambo said Raila may not abandon Ruto but will use his
ODM party, which he is keen to see vibrant, to negotiate for favours.
“Raila abandoning Ruto may not be the case because he has
his selfish interests. He will negotiate for a bigger stake in Ruto’s
government,” he said.
Political observer Mark Bichachi said Raila comes as a
package to whoever person he supports with other ‘small regional kingpins’ crucial
to winning the elections.
“If you go to the Coast, Joho is there. This is the case
with Western which has Oparanya who is very influential,” Bichachi said.
Raila had said his
foremost priority was to stabilise Kenya even as he eyes the seat.
“While I am running for the AUC chairperson’s position, my
priority remains to stabilise my home country for future generations,” he said
on his X account.
Raila, once described as an enigma of Kenyan politics, has
dominated the country’s political scene for more than 30 years.
He enjoys a massive following in his Nyanza backyard, Western, Nairobi, Northeastern and Coast, key vote baskets which could determine the outcome of the 2027 elections.
