2027 race: Why Raila’s fate now lies with Ruto’s political fortunes

Raila Odinga has several times been described as having nine lives like the proverbial cat. However, as time moves as it always does, the options are not as many as they were years back.

He has lost the presidential race five times, four of which were under very controversial and contested circumstances. In all the outcomes and against all the odds, he rose like the legendary phoenix.

Raila would quickly regain ground to be the key player in the government of his opponent. He has therefore been in government, either serving in critical positions, or with overbearing influence since 1998.

In the 2022 general election, he had the backing of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta. It was thus very painfully disappointing to him and supporters when he lost the bid once again.

However, events would soon after unfold that demanded his direct participation as the quintessential experienced political leader of all times.

The first budget of the Kenya Kwanza administration brought in a raft of tax measures that proved painful for the citizens to bear.

He gallantly mounted the sufuria protests that turned violent and led to loss of some lives. Some provisions of the new tax law were judicially stopped, giving citizens a temporary reprieve. But the government suffered colossal loss of revenue for their ambitious development projects, especially in the health and housing sectors. The government made a second and bold attempt with the Finance Bill 2024.

The Bill proposed even higher taxes and broadened the tax base. The country was thrown into turmoil with the Gen Z protests.

The young generation almost caused a revolution and the resultant destruction was unprecedented in the history of the country.

Parliament was brought to a standstill and the demonstrations spread countrywide and became a weekly event. Their coordination was meticulous and relied heavily on digital technology.

It has since emerged that there might have been powerful individuals and organisations offering massive logistical support from behind the scenes.

The opposition did not lead the protests, which drew the participation of young people across the political divide. It was intense in equal measure in both the Kenya Kwanza alliance-led regions as well as the Azimio coalition regions. The government was thrown into panic and confusion.

The President, in a tactical response, rejected the Bill and dissolved his Cabinet. He reached out to Raila and reconstituted the Cabinet with key members from the opposition party, ODM.

The broad-based government once again thrust Raila into the inner sanctums of state power. He started to wield immense clout within government circles to the discomfort of some erstwhile powerful forces in the Kenya Kwanza leadership.

The formation of the broad-based government triggered a number of reactions and events that have had serious ramifications in the body politic of the country.

Soon after the Gen Z protests, then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was accused of undermining the government and his boss.

He was eventually impeached and replaced by Kithure Kindiki. He immediately mounted a spirited campaign to discredit the government and portray the President as traitor to the Kikuyus. His campaigns have been intense and consistent leading to pockets of rebellion in the region against the government.

In turn, the President turned to the ODM strongholds for support. The new members of the government came in handy. But the icing on the cake was the climax of Raila’s campaign for the AUC chairmanship.

The government took over the process and sponsored its secretariat. Ruto and Raila embarked on a blistering lobbying exercise crisscrossing the continent.

They visited every significant capital, either together or singly. As the voting day approached in February, both had exuded confidence of a first round win.

On the other hand, Kenya’s politicians allied to Gachagua mounted spirited social media campaigns against the Raila candidature.

Instead of uniting the country, the AUC quest divided the country deeper along the Ruto-Rigathi fissures. The long night celebrations in Nyeri and other Rigathi support bases were not sporadic but well anticipated. The Wamunyoro-led campaigns therefore consider Raila’s loss in Addis Ababa as good political fortunes and turbulent future for Ruto.

Raila has straddled the Kenyan political space like a colossus. His presence has been both divisive and uniting depending on which side he chooses to play ball. As has been noted earlier, every government has found his support useful since the reintroduction of the multiparty democracy.

He exhibited unmatched youthfulness and rare energy in political activities. His charisma has created and entrenched a fanatical following that has never been enjoyed by any political leader since independence.

Former Vice President Wamalwa Kijana termed it, and rightly so, Railamania and Railaphobia. Both the mania and phobia cuts across generations, class, ethnicities and regions.

He has been able to weave an intricate network of support that span beyond the national boundaries and reach the capitals of major powerful states internationally. The former premier inspires confidence among his supporters and fear in the cadres of his opponents. His edict is followed religiously in his support bases.

However, his image and association is sure enough a decampaigner in some electoral areas. He elicits high-octane excitement and resentment depending on the area of political consideration.

He has uncharacteristically maintained a tight grip on his political bases for the longest time known in Kenya’s history. It is therefore befitting for Ruto to have convinced him to his corner, especially after the fallout with Gachagua.

To paraphrase the US President Lyndon Johnson, he is the politician you would rather have inside peeing outside than outside peeing inside the tent. In the lead up to the 2022 presidential election, it increasingly became clear that the decades of gruelling campaigns had taken a toll on Jakom.

When the results were finally announced and Ruto declared the winner, many attributed the loss to reduced stamina and fatigue in his strongholds. If not for the early missteps of the Kenya Kwanza administration, Raila had been all but written off.

His AUC chairmanship bid was thus a blessing in disguise. Many had hoped that a win would help give him a dignified exit route from the local political scene. He had become a statesman who needed to retire to quite life of diplomacy and mentorship.

The defeat in Addis Ababa has presented unexpected scenarios. Ruto must have hoped that with Raila at the helm of the AU Secretariat, he would inherit his support base together with his endorsement.

On the other hand, Raila must have expected to maintain his foothold in government while enjoying the diplomatic privileges of the continent’s 001 number plate. The outcome now firmly ties his fate to Ruto’s political fortunes. If he breaks ranks with Ruto then Ruto’s chances of winning a second term becomes a herculean task.

That also forces Raila to fend for himself politically which is wrought with burdensome local competing and always insatiable interests to meet. If they close ranks and establish a union, then their coalition will be formidable.

The coalition would win the next election a little more easily by bringing together the major voting blocs of Nyanza, Rift Valley, Western and Coast regions.

The writer is a Political and Policy Analyst