Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s political value has risen significantly despite his recent loss in the race for the African Union Commission chairperson position.
Despite the setback in Addis Ababa, Raila could become a key figure in Kenya’s political landscape, drawing interest from major players, who include President William Ruto, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and leaders within the Azimio coalition.
Initially dismissed as ageing and politically sidelined in the 2027 matrix as he pursued the AUC position, his loss is now viewed as a game changer, presenting a complex dilemma for the country’s top political figures.
Having played a central role in Kenya’s politics for decades, the former premier still have a final political card to play—one that could significantly influence the 2027 presidential race and reshape the political landscape leading up to the election.
If Raila decides to contest the presidency, he could complicate Ruto’s bid for a second term, particularly since the President has lost significant support in the crucial Mount Kenya region—a voting bloc that helped secure his victory in 2022.
Meanwhile, Gachagua is aggressively consolidating his influence in Mount Kenya and forging alliances with some of Raila’s Azimio allies in a bid to weaken Ruto’s re-election prospects.
Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu, an ally of the former DP, said Ruto’s presidency is hanging by a thread, with Raila’s support being a key factor.
“The only lifeline for Ruto’s presidency is Raila,” Nyutu said, adding that Ruto’s backing of Raila’s AUC bid was largely a strategic move to gain political advantage.
“I know Baba will take time to listen to Kenyans before making any decision. The people need him, and they are yearning for his leadership,” he added.
A Raila presidential bid could significantly diminish Ruto’s re-election chances unless the head of state finds a way to regain support in Mount Kenya, either through Gachagua or former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Throughout Raila’s AUC campaign, Uhuru remained conspicuously silent, neither endorsing nor opposing his bid for the continental role.
In contrast, Gachagua publicly supported Raila’s candidacy and later commended him for putting up a strong fight despite his defeat.
“Baba Raila Odinga, you fought bravely, demonstrating resilience and the indomitable spirit of the Lion of Africa. You finished as a credible second while flying the Kenyan flag high in a fiercely contested race,” Gachagua said.
His remarks were widely interpreted as an olive branch to the former PM, signalling the keen interest for a possible political alliance ahead of the 2027 election.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi believes Raila’s AUC loss has paradoxically boosted his political standing.
“Raila’s political value has undoubtedly increased because his support base remains solid,” Mwangangi said.
“Whichever side he chooses to align with, Raila will have a significant impact. While he currently has a working relationship with Ruto, he also recognises that the remaining Azimio principals are still his allies.”
The deputy governor acknowledged that Raila faces a major political dilemma but expressed confidence that, as in the past, he would navigate it strategically.
The former premier lost to Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf in a vote by African heads of state in Addis Ababa.
Despite leading in the first two rounds, Raila fell behind in the subsequent four, ultimately being eliminated before the seventh and final round, where Youssouf secured the required 33 votes to win.
Although he was initially considered a frontrunner, observers suggest that behind-the-scenes deal making among regional blocs played a significant role in his defeat.
Amid speculation over the reasons for his loss, Raila dismissed claims that President Ruto was to blame, instead crediting the President for his full support.
“There will be many theories— some will say I didn’t do enough, others will claim I’m too old, or that Ruto wasn’t sincere in his support. But Ruto did everything possible. He provided all the logistical support I needed and facilitated meetings with leaders across the continent,” he said.
While he had been optimistic about winning, Raila acknowledged that “other factors” came into play and insisted he had no regrets. Following his defeat, political analysts and observers argue that Raila’s influence has only grown, making him more relevant in the country’s political landscape than ever before.
Prof Gitile Naituli, a management and leadership expert, welcomed the veteran opposition leader back to the country, saying it was a loss, not necessarily for him, but for Kenya.
“In the event that Raila may want to be a presidential candidate, a majority of Kenyans would still support him,’’ Naituli said.
Naituli added that Raila might not continue working with the government because of his aspirations, including being the face of a major political party that exists to win power.
“Raila may get a lot of pressure from members of his party to position himself for 2027.’’
The former premier had largely stayed out of local politics since August last year, focusing entirely on his AUC campaign, which saw him, traverse at least 20 African capitals.
Critics who had viewed his AUC bid as a means to retire him from Kenyan politics are now reevaluating their strategies.
Some politicians are urging him to reassume control of the ODM party and return to active politics. In October, Raila temporarily stepped down as ODM leader, allowing Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o to serve in an acting capacity while he pursued the AUC role.
However, calls—including from Ruto’s allies—to create a government position for Raila highlight his continued political significance. Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei suggested amending the constitution to establish the position of Prime Minister, enabling Raila to serve in that capacity.
“We must now fully implement the Nadco report by amending the 2010 Constitution to create the office of Prime Minister and allow Raila to serve the country,” Cherargei said. Saboti MP Caleb Amisi countered that such constitutional changes would require a fully constituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
“Dear Kenya Kwanza, you now want a referendum to make Raila an executive Prime Minister—the same referendum you campaigned against during Tanga Tanga days. Fine, let’s have it, but first, constitute a new IEBC and conduct the pending by-elections. The results of those by-elections will be your referendum,” he wrote on X.
Before the AUC vote, Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba had opined that Raila should retire if he lost.
“If he doesn’t win, he should retire in Bondo. We’ll ensure he gets a good retirement package as a former Prime Minister, but he shouldn’t run for president again,” Wamuchomba said.
Many observers view Ruto as the biggest loser in Raila’s failed AUC bid, as it complicates his efforts to inherit Raila’s traditional support bases in Western Kenya, Nyanza and the Coast.
The unexpected outcome could trigger a shift in political dynamics, leading to realignments and the formation of new alliances. Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma believes Raila’s AUC campaign should be transformed into a political movement.
“A good strategist turns weaknesses into opportunities and threats into challenges. FORD was a movement that became a political party—so was ODM,” he said.
Had Raila won the AUC seat, Ruto would have had a clear path to consolidating support in Raila’s strongholds. Some ODM leaders were even preparing for a potential alliance with Ruto’s UDA party. His former Azimio allies, all of whom backed his AUC bid, are hoping he will rejoin them in opposing Ruto’s administration.
While ODM members insist Raila will soon declare his political stance, they continue to praise Ruto for supporting his AUC campaign. ODM’s recent decision to drop its push for parliamentary leadership positions, following a court order, suggests an effort to maintain political goodwill—potentially paving the way for a future alliance with Ruto.
Meanwhile, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has outlined two options for Raila: rejoin Azimio or work with Ruto.
“If he partners with Ruto, it would be a betrayal of young Kenyans’ aspirations,” Kalonzo warned, referencing the Gen Z-led protests against the Kenya Kwanza government.
“The alternative is for Raila to reassume ODM leadership and rebuild Azimio in a new political arrangement,” he added.
“The biggest loser in the AUC race was not Raila Odinga—it was President Ruto and Kenya.”
Meanwhile, Raila has taken a sabbatical leave to reevaluate his political future before declaring his next move amid anxiety in his camp.
Migori Senator Eddy Oketch says that it is only a matter of time before Raila emerges with his plans for the future.
“As Baba’s supporters, we are patiently waiting for his direction after taking the much-needed rest.”
