Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has limited options following his unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.
Political analysts argue that his presence in Kenya’s political landscape will significantly influence the 2027 elections, with only a few paths available to him.
The former prime minister, a seasoned campaigner and skilled mobilizer commands strong support in key regions, making him a decisive factor in the next election.
Raila lost the AUC bid to Djibouti’s candidate, Ali Youssouf, in an election held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on February 15.
Analysts suggest that Raila could either make a sixth run for the presidency, form an alliance with President William Ruto in a power-sharing deal, or support a different candidate entirely.
Should he choose to work with Ruto, Raila would remain actively involved in politics and potentially take up a senior role in government.
Alternatively, he could retire from active politics and endorse another opposition candidate for the 2027 general election.
Regardless of his decision, Raila is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the presidential race, whether as a candidate or a kingmaker.
Former
Cabinet Minister Franklin Bett believes Raila has limited options as he
navigates what could be the final chapter of his political career.
"He must calculate his moves carefully to ensure he remains pivotal in forming the next government. He cannot afford to retire without being part of the next administration," Bett said.
For decades, Raila has been the face of Kenya’s opposition politics. His push for the AUC chairmanship was seen as a potential exit strategy as he nears the twilight of his political career.
He has championed democracy, endured incarceration in the 1980s, and survived political betrayals, coming close to victory in four successive elections (2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022).
With shifting political alliances, rising public discontent, and his recent AUC loss, analysts are speculating on his next move.
Besides President Ruto, who is expected to seek re-election, other potential contenders include former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’I, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Okiya Omutatah.
Matiang’i and Kalonzo’s allies have hinted at forming a broad opposition coalition to field a single candidate against Ruto. But Omutatah appears non-committal to the team.
Among those reportedly in Kalonzo’s camp are former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, former Justice Minister and PLP party leader Martha Karua, and DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa.
Opposition leaders have been holding a series of meetings to craft a common agenda before settling on a strategy to challenge Ruto in 2027.
Meanwhile, Ruto’s allies have proposed creating the position of Prime Minister for Raila ahead of the 2027 elections.
The move is seen as a way to offer him a soft landing while also securing his support for Ruto’s re-election bid.
However, some ODM leaders argue that Raila does not need an appointment from the Kenya Kwanza administration and will instead take time to reassess his political future following his AUC loss.
Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga suggests that Raila’s legacy would be better preserved if he opposed Ruto rather than aligning with him.
"Ruto’s support for Raila in the AUC race does not necessarily mean Raila will back him in 2027. Many factors, including Raila’s long-standing political principles, will come into play," Nyamboga said.
According to Nyamboga, Raila’s credibility would be strengthened if he supported an opposition candidate such as Kalonzo or Matiang’i, given their track records in public service.
Javan Amboko, a political analyst and university lecturer, agrees that while Raila’s options are limited, he still has the opportunity to shape his legacy.
"Odinga has spent decades fighting for democracy in Kenya. He now has the chance to cement that legacy by supporting a candidate with a clean record in the 2027 election," Amboko said.
In October 2021, Raila revealed that he had initially planned to endorse Matiang’i for president in the 2022 elections.
Speaking at a fundraiser for Mwongori High School in Borabu constituency, Nyamira County, Raila stated that he had abandoned his presidential ambition and was prepared to back Matiang’i.
"We had discussions on which path to take, and I was ready to support him. However, after re-evaluating the political landscape, we mutually agreed that I should take the lead," Raila said on October 23, 2021.
Despite enjoying the backing of then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and Matiang’i, he was defeated by Ruto.
Matiang’i has yet to publicly declare his 2027 presidential ambitions, although he has recently held meetings with political leaders during his visit to Kenya from the United States.
The Jubilee
Party, formerly led by Uhuru Kenyatta, has indicated that Matiang’i will be its
presidential candidate in 2027.
