Ruto’s game of chess and new battle for Mt Kenya

In a surprise move that caught both allies and opponents off guard, President Ruto has executed what analysts call a calculated strategy to deny Gachagua the political ammunition he expected to use against the head of state.

Gachagua’s camp had been preparing for a fierce showdown, anticipating that Ruto would sack his allies, including about six Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries.

However, by avoiding this expected purge, the President has denied Gachagua a key grievance and rallying point against Ruto in the battle for the heart and soul of Mt Kenya.

The retention of these officials deprives Gachagua of a reason to openly attack Ruto, while also allowing the President to maintain some political stability.

Political risk analyst Dismus Mokua said President Ruto has significantly jolted Gachagua’s desire to sustain a narrative that the head of state is obliterating the Mt Kenya region.

“It is a quintessential political move by the President because all along Gachagua had claimed his allies were targeted for removal from government positions after his ouster,” Mokua said.

“The retention fits into the Kenya Kwanza narrative that it is all-inclusive, especially after the formation of the broad-based government.”

Adding to Gachagua’s troubles, recent Cabinet changes have triggered a looming by-election in his backyard of Embu.

Ruto appears intent on using this by-election as a battleground to reshape the region’s political alignment ahead of the 2027 polls, after months of hostility and disillusionment.

If Ruto’s UDA party secures the Mbeere North parliamentary seat, it would send a strong message that he remains the dominant force in Mt Kenya, despite Gachagua’s removal in October last year.

In his recent reshuffle of PSs and CSs, the President walked a fine political line and chose to retain officials associated with Gachagua, defying expectations and predictions of a ruthless purge.

This move avoided a direct confrontation with Gachagua’s political base, while simultaneously strengthening Ruto’s strategic positioning.

Gachagua has claimed before 2022 elections, he negotiated with Ruto for at least 15 Cabinet Secretary positions for Mt Kenya, including for Meru, Kiambu, Laikipia, and Nyeri counties.

However, he alleges these positions are now being reallocated to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s allies, following a recent political agreement between the opposition chief and the President.' 

“The deal was to have 15 PSs, at least one from each county, with two in key regions like Kiambu and Meru,” Gachagua said on March 17.

He also said Raila had demanded six Cabinet slots as part of his deal with Ruto, and predicted Mt Kenya would suffer politically as a result.

Raila already has five Cabinet positions in the Kenya Kwanza government and his ODM stalwarts are positioned in key ministries, including Finance and Planning.

However, on March 20, Ruto anticipated and sidestepped Gachagua’s ‘trap’ by reassigning six PSs — including those perceived to be Gachagua allies — while nominating 14 new ones, some linked to Raila.

For example, instead of dismissing key figures aligned with Gachagua, Ruto promoted Amos Gathecha, a former PS for Public Service, to Deputy Head of Public Service.

 Gathecha, a former district officer, hails from Kiambu county and rose in the public service to become secretary of internal security and later principal administrative secretary, before he became Principal Secretary in 2020.

Further complicating Gachagua’s strategy, Ruto also ‘failed’ to dismiss Cabinet Secretaries perceived as Gachagua loyalists, a deliberate effort to weaken the former DP’s narrative of political persecution.

The biggest immediate challenge for Gachagua comes from the upcoming Mbeere North by-election.

The poll was triggered by the nomination of Mbeere North MP Geoffrey Ruku as Public Service PS, replacing Justin Muturi, a fierce critic of the President.

While Muturi is yet to openly align with Gachagua, there are indications the two could team up and work together to campaign against President Ruto’s reelection in 2027.

Ruto’s decision to tap Ruku, an MP from Muturi’s own constituency, is widely seen as a strategic test of Gachagua’s grip on Mt Kenya politics.

If Ruto’s UDA wins the seat, it would demonstrate that he still commands significant support in the region.

Mbeere North was reportedly chosen as a battleground because it lies outside Central Kenya, the Kikuyu heartland, where Gachagua enjoys strong backing.

With Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire, UDA’s national chairperson, expected to lead grassroots mobilisation, Ruto’s camp is optimistic about victory, despite Gachagua’s influence.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, from neighbouring Tharaka Nithi, is also expected to use the by-election to assert his influence as the highest-ranking Mt Kenya leader in government.

Ruku hosted Kindiki in Mbeere North just minutes before news of his Cabinet appointment became public, signalling the election’s high political stakes. 

Gachagua had avoided directly attacking Kindiki, but he has minced no words to demonstrate that the former legal scholar and known conciliator was picked to replace him because he is less aggressive.

The former DP has positioned himself as the undisputed kingpin of Mt Kenya politics, and the Mbeere North by-election will be a major test of his influence.

His allies, including Kiambu Senator Karungo wa Thang’wa and Nyandarua Senator John Methu, have pledged a fierce battle against UDA in the by-election.

Methu indicated that once Gachagua officially launches his new party in May, the grouping will aggressively consolidate Mt Kenya’s political base to challenge UDA.

“The by-election will allow Mt Kenya to send a clear message to this administration that the region cannot be taken for granted,” Methu said.

To date, Mt Kenya had largely been spared by-elections, despite vacancies in various constituencies. However, with Gachagua’s new party set to be announced soon and the electoral commission expected to be in place, by-elections are anticipated by October.

In addition to Mbeere North, other constituencies — including Magarini, Banisa, Ugunja and Malava — are also preparing for by-elections, further complicating the national political landscape.

Additionally, Baringo county will elect a new senator following the death of UDA’s William Cheptumo.

Gachagua has maintained that Mt Kenya has turned against Ruto following what he describes as ‘political betrayal’.

He has accused the President of sidelining the region, despite its overwhelming support for him in the 2022 election.

“Our people are done with UDA,” Gachagua declared. “We joined, believing in its vision, but now Ruto has taken full control — both as the driver and the sole holder of the logbook. He has turned against us and it’s time we get our own vehicle.”

With Ruto set to tour Mt Kenya next week starting on April 1 — the first visit since August 2024 and the first since Gachagua’s impeachment — political tensions are high.

In February, Gachagua warned that leaders supporting Ruto would face consequences in 2027.

“This region will vote out leaders who prioritise their own interests over the community,” he said.

“Those who sell our people for personal gain will never see leadership again in Mt Kenya.”

The former DP has also adjusted his political strategy, opting for closed-door meetings at his Wamunyoro residence to protect his allies from state surveillance.

Previously, his engagements were highly publicised, but he now prefers discretion.

MP James Gakuya explained the shift, saying, “It was never Gachagua’s intention to keep these meetings secret, but his guests prefer confidentiality for now. This protects them from political victimisation.”

As Ruto prepares for his Mt Kenya tour, his allies have intensified grassroots mobilisation.

On March 20, Ruto held a high-level meeting with Mt Kenya leaders at State House to strategise about the tour. Notably absent was Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, a staunch Gachagua ally.