Ambitho: Recent polls not prediction of 2027 elections

Infotrak Research and Consulting CEO Angela Ambitho has cautioned against interpreting recent opinion polls as a prediction of the outcome of the 2027 General Election, saying they only reflect the current mood of Kenyans.

Ambitho said opinion polls are designed to gauge public perceptions on key issues at a specific point in time, including the race to State House.

According to Ambitho, the latest findings show that the political landscape remains fluid, with no candidate having secured a decisive lead if an election were held today.

"One of the things that has been a hot topic is the 2027 elections. Many people are asking who is likely to win and what Kenyans are really thinking about the elections. Are they already decided, or are they still considering the different options available to them?" she said.

"We don't really have a definitive winner as of now, if elections were held today. It is important to emphasise that this is not a prediction of the 2027 elections that will happen in August."

She likened opinion polls to weather forecasts, explaining that while they can provide an accurate picture of current conditions, they cannot reliably predict events years into the future.

"We can forecast what the weather will be today and tomorrow, but we can't forecast today what the weather will be in August. That is really what a poll does. It gives a snapshot based on what people have access to or are privy to right now," Ambitho said.

She noted that a significant number of respondents either remain undecided or decline to discuss the elections, an indication that many Kenyans are yet to settle on their preferred candidates.

Ambitho added that while the survey identifies a clear frontrunner, the candidate does not command the constitutional threshold required to win the presidency in the first round.

"The situation is quite fluid. We have an undecided vote, and we also had people who didn't really want to talk about the elections. That could either mean they are not pleased with the current political discourse, or that they are still trying to make up their minds," she said.

"There is a clear frontrunner, but that frontrunner does not get to 50 plus one. We also have a very fragmented base of other political players who, when combined, account for a significant share of support among opposition candidates."

She said the race remains open, with key questions centring on whether the leading candidate can consolidate enough support to secure an outright victory or whether opposition figures will unite behind a single candidate ahead of the 2027 General Election.