Raila's traditional bases feel the strain as ODM top leadership focuses on Nyanza

ODM is increasingly facing questions over whether it is inadvertently weakening the national political network painstakingly built by its late leader Raila Odinga.

The concerns stem from what party insiders describe as the leadership's growing concentration of political activities in its traditional Nyanza stronghold.

This has left some of Raila's long-standing support bases with no visible party activities.

Over the past weeks, ODM's senior officials, led by party leader Oburu Oginga and National chairperson Gladys Wanga, have embarked on a series of political events branded as women empowerment drives across the four Luo Nyanza counties of Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori.

The programmes have attracted huge crowds and reinforced ODM's grip on its political backyard. However, they have also triggered unease among leaders from regions that historically backed Raila and the party beyond Nyanza.

The frustrations came to the fore last week when Mandera West parliamentary hopeful Harun Isaack Hassan publicly challenged Wanga over what he described as the neglect of North Eastern region.

He argued that the region had stood firmly with ODM during difficult political moments and deserved equal attention as the party charts its future.

"Please consider coming to Mandera. This is one area that has stood with Raila. You have huge support in the region. Don't abandon this particular Raila base," Hassan told Wanga during the launch of the People's Bench podcast hosted by journalist Fred Ogweno.

His remarks reflected growing anxiety among ODM supporters outside Nyanza, many of whom fear the party could gradually retreat into a regional outfit unless deliberate efforts are made to preserve its national appeal.

As if taking the challenge, Wanga on Thursday took party’s engagement to Narok where she urged party supporters to remain in the outfit, saying they will also carry the blame if the party ‘dies’

“All of you donning the orange cap, you will explain where you were and what you did when the party was dying,” she said.

With new political formations aggressively courting ODM supporters at the Coast, in North Eastern, Western and Nairobi, the party faces mounting pressure to reassure its traditional support bases that they remain central to its future.

Political observers say that while consolidating the party's heartland is understandable in the post-Raila transition, an extended focus on one region risks alienating supporters who played a pivotal role in transforming ODM into a national political force.

For nearly two decades, Raila personally nurtured party structures in Coast, North Eastern, Nairobi, Western and parts of the Rift Valley, ensuring ODM remained a formidable national outfit despite intense political competition.

His frequent tours and direct engagement with grassroots leaders cultivated deep loyalty that consistently translated into electoral support.

Since the change in leadership, however, officials from some of these regions have complained of dwindling engagement, saying national leaders rarely visit or involve them in major party programmes.

Former Kwale Woman Representative Hassan Zuleikha acknowledged the concerns but urged members to appreciate the difficult circumstances facing the party.

She defended the leadership's recent focus on Nyanza, saying it also had a responsibility to consolidate support in ODM's traditional stronghold.

"It is very difficult for anyone in the party to fill the shoes of Raila. He united Kenyans from different parts of the country. He was unique in his own way," Zuleikha told the Star.

"People are trying to put the party in order, while at the same time the leaders are trying to secure their own political future ahead of 2027. It is a delicate balance."

"I am not surprised that everybody is going back home to make sure their backyard is secure. I sympathise with them. I don't want to blame them."

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi has, however, warned that ODM risks losing its national identity if the trend continues.

"My party ODM is bleeding. My party has lost its way. It has now descended into a tribal club," Osotsi said on Thursday. "This is not what Raila stood for."

In April, Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya also warned that Western Kenya could reconsider its relationship with ODM over what he termed the unfair treatment of the region.

Oparanya said Western had remained loyal to Raila for years but was increasingly being sidelined as Nyanza dominates the party's affairs.

"The support we have given Raila should not be taken for granted. They must assure us what is in it for the people of Western in ODM. If they continue ignoring us, we will tell them goodbye," Oparanya said in a video shared in April.

"They have even forgotten some of us who were close to Raila. They seem not to know that people from Western also want a share of leadership."

Political analysts argue that ODM's biggest challenge is balancing two competing priorities.

On one hand, the party must reassure supporters in Nyanza that the leadership transition has not weakened the movement. On the other, it must preserve the broad coalition that Raila painstakingly assembled by maintaining a visible presence in regions that contributed significantly to ODM's electoral success.

University don Prof. Gitile Naituli said the current leadership risks reducing ODM into a regional outfit.

"ODM under Oburu and his team is a shell. The real supporters of Raila Odinga moved with the likes of Edwin Sifuna, James Orengo and Babu Owino to the Linda Mwananchi movement. What remains in the party is only a shell," he told the Star.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

While the women empowerment drives have been praised by supporters as an effective grassroots mobilisation strategy, critics argue that similar programmes should be rolled out across the country if ODM is to retain the national footprint that Raila painstakingly built ahead of the 2027 General Election.