The Kenya Meteorological Department has announced that the March-April-May (MAM) rains will begin early in February.
In its latest rainfall outlook report, Met indicated that in some regions, the rains will cease in the third to fourth week of May, while in other areas, the conditions will persist until June.
Several regions are expected to receive near to above-average rains, others near to below-average, and the remainder will experience generally poor to fair rains.
The Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, and some parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley will see continuous rains from February into the season, with occasional breaks.
These areas, including Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Busia, Narok, Bomet, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Bungoma and Southern parts of West Pokot, are projected to receive near to above long-term average rainfall amounts.
Counties in the Central and North of the Rift Valley, such as Nakuru, Baringo, and western Laikipia, are likely to receive near to below long-term average rainfall amounts.
Occasional rainfall may still be experienced in February.
In the Northwestern Counties, Turkana and Samburu, along with the northern parts of West Pokot, rains are predicted to be near to below long-term average, with some areas bordering South Sudan likely to experience near to above-average rainfall.
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi County, including Nyandarua, Nyeri, and Kiambu, will receive rains with some breaks, with expected amounts near to below the season's long-term average.
The Southeastern Lowlands, including Kitui, Makueni, and Machakos, are also expected to have near to below long-term average rainfall, although Kajiado and parts of Taita Taveta might experience near to above-average rainfall.
Northeastern Counties like Mandera, Marsabit, and Garissa will see occasional rainfall, expected to be below the long-term average for the season.
The Coastal Strip, including Mombasa, Kwale, and Kilifi, will also experience near to below-long-term average rainfall amounts, with Lamu expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
Met has warned that the expected rainfall during the March to May long rains season may have both positive and negative impacts across various sectors.
Due to intra-seasonal climate variability drivers like tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which are only predictable at shorter lead times, Kenyans are advised to stay updated with the department's 24-hour, five-day, seven-day, and monthly forecasts.
The MJO, a significant atmospheric phenomenon, will influence tropical weather patterns, impacting clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure.
It typically cycles every 30 to 60 days, with phases of enhanced and suppressed rainfall.
During the past MJOs, Western Kenya experienced increased rainfall in phases 1 to 4, while Eastern Kenya saw rainfall earlier, during phases 7-8.
