African Union Commission candidate Raila Odinga, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and President William Ruto, during Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit, in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania/PCS
In just over a week, we will know if former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has succeeded in his quest to become the next African Union Commission Chairman.
By last count, the ODM supremo appears to have garnered more than half of the endorsements of countries eligible to vote at the AU summit. But the champagne is still on ice, and if there is any feeling that victory is nigh, it is uncharacteristically muted, given the usual vociferous and assured nature of Raila’s inner circles.
To be fair, there is massive trauma within Raila’s networks given past experiences with elections. The overriding feeling among supporters of the former Azimio coalition boss is that even when victory seemed guaranteed, a combination of factors worked to steal his win at the very last minute.
I have been to my village several times recently, and because I write in a national newspaper and kinsmen presuppose that I know many things, I have been issued instructions to ‘help ensure we are not robbed this time’!
In my home area, festivals and celebrations usually call for new attire. Thus, ahead of the 2022 elections, the support of President Uhuru Kenyatta convinced everyone that Raila would finally be sworn in.
The common joke was that residents should urge their tailors to work harder to deliver new inauguration suits for Raila’s oath-taking. No one today is naïve enough to remind their tailors this time around because nobody wants the responsibility for jinxing his victory.
Be that as it may, the consensus is that in his AUC ambition, the former PM has run a dignified and inspiring campaign, far removed from his usual local presidential runs, where lobby groups and vested interests always clash, frequently guaranteeing Election Day chaos.
The support from the government has given this AUC campaign a fantastically high level of statecraft and credibility. It has effortlessly locked out the usual ‘Friends of Raila’ clown groups and the perennial desire by his close associates to control election agents’ money without actually hiring anyone.
Let’s face it, though: the consistent support President William Ruto has extended to Raila has stood out in this quest. I am yet to see anything on which the President has been as consistent and as resilient as in pushing for Raila the continent-wide job.
Knowing how difficult it is to crack the presidential veils, protocol and security around African presidents, Ruto has taken Raila along to bilateral and multilateral meetings with African leaders.
This access has allowed Raila to sell his agenda to the heads of state. We have seen African presidents routinely arriving in Nairobi, where it seemed the bigger matter on the table was Raila’s candidature.
If roadside analysts are to be believed, Ruto is doing all this simply to position himself as the Luo community’s favourite presidential candidate in 2027. I disagree. I think the conviction and presidential pedigree that Ruto has attached to this campaign go beyond just a desire for a second term.
Of course, there’s the prestige of having a Kenyan heading the AU in Addis Ababa, leading anticipated reforms at the African Union. But beyond that, you can feel an acknowledgement from the President that Kenya’s foremost democrat and most iconic Second Liberation warrior deserves a more consequential farewell from the local political scene.
What better way than as the CEO of the African Union?
Well, there is no harm if Ruto is doing it to score personal political points among the Luo. As things stand, there have already been many firsts for the community in the Ruto era.
Ruto’s senior government appointments already show that Ruto has been reaching out to the Luo beyond mere political expediency.
Note the appointment of the first-ever Chief of Defence Forces of Luo ancestry, the late General Francis Ogolla, as well as the first-ever Attorney General, Dorcas Oduor, and the first Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, coupled with just the second PS for Interior in Dr Raymond Omollo.
If Ruto’s magnificent support for Raila yields the first Kenya to become AUC Chairman, it will crown these firsts, and the Luo will be happy to let everyone make their own interpretations! One reason I believe the President’s support isn’t based on any 2027 game plan is that helping remove Raila from the local political scene is a gamble removing the glue that holds the ODM political bloc together.
Even without considering that a Luo political bloc without Raila becomes a toss-up minus such an influential unifying figure, Raila’s charisma and leadership holding non-Luo ODM tribes together are impossible to replace and replicate in two years, for anyone eyeing the Raila base.
I therefore submit that 2027 politics cannot be the main motivation for the President’s support of the ODM chief’s AU ambitions. In fact, if Ruto really wanted Raila’s support for a second term, the ideal scenario would be to actually have Raila around in 2027, pulling the strings for him in his bases.
The AUC Chairman serves a four-year term, renewable once. Raila’s first term as chairman, if he clinches the seat, will expire in 2029, and the 2027 elections will take place when he, as the foremost African statesman, must stay above the fray of domestic politics.
There are many potential political orphans who do not like that last sentence of ethnical neutrality of the AU chairman. There is another angle, which I suspect also drives President Ruto.
In 2022, President Uhuru Kenyatta and the so-called ‘deep state’ promised ‘to make Raila president’ and failed. What had looked like a ‘sure bet’ became a spectacular collapse, when the legendary power of the state combined with a hugely popular candidate failed to deliver victory.
Besides that, in 2017, the same Uhuru regime fronted Ambassador Amina Mohamed for AUC chairperson, and despite heavy lobbying, she lost to now-outgoing chairman Moussa Faki. Such failures from the Uhuru era are not forgotten by President Ruto.
If Kenya’s AU candidate succeeds, Ruto will be seen among Raila’s supporters as the one who promised and delivered, after a catalogue of electoral failures. But overall, he will also be the president who went one better than Uhuru and actually got a Kenyan elected to the top AU position.
That would be no mean feat. There is no doubt that the candidate himself has covered enviable miles, seeking African support. At age 80, Raila still shows amazing sharpness of mind and physical agility to keep going.
You wouldn’t rule him out of serving a full AU term and seeking a second. You only need to look at his elder brother, Senator Oburu Odinga, to understand the Odingas are creatures of longevity, and the 80s look really good on them!
Their close friend, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, is 87, but he is still covering African capitals helping with the Raila campaign, and he has a mind as clear as ever.
There may be an octogenarian triumph if Raila wins the contest a week from now, but we will remember to hand President Ruto kudos for acting with magnanimity and class in his support for Raila and the manner in which state resources were activated to achieve this victory.
