The country’s main political parties have shifted their focus to upcoming by-elections in at least 12 units across the country.
This is after the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission selection panel announced that the chairperson and commissioners of the electoral body will be in office by April 25.
The partnership between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga presents a political dilemma for their respective parties, UDA and ODM.
They could be forced to hammer consensus to field joint candidates in some areas.
There are indications that the by-elections could serve as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 general election, pitting Ruto and Raila against their anticipated main rivals—Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Gachagua and Kalonzo are working to build a political alliance that includes Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa.
The opposition bigwigs are expected to use the by-elections as a supremacy test against Raila and Ruto, while UDA and ODM also face tough choices in the upcoming polls.
At least four constituencies—Magarini, Banisa, Ugunja, and Malava—are set to hold by-elections, posing a critical test for the Ruto-Raila unity.
Voters in
Baringo County will also elect a new Senator following the death of UDA’s
William Cheptumo.
In addition to the Senate and parliamentary by-elections, eight wards across the country will also elect new representatives.
The Baringo senate seat will be a high-stakes contest, as KANU, which lost the seat to UDA in 2022, may attempt a comeback.
However, it remains unclear whether Kanu chairman Gideon Moi will throw his hat in the ring or back another person.
On Thursday, political analyst Alexander Nyamboga noted that the upcoming by-elections will be a litmus test for Raila and Ruto, as well as a key trial run for Gachagua’s camp.
Gachagua is set to unveil his new party in May as he continues to build an alliance with Kalonzo, Eugene, and Karua.
“The by-elections are not something the president or the ruling party would welcome at midterm, as they could expose growing unpopularity,” Nyamboga said.
“We saw how
Ruto used the Kiambaa by-election ahead of 2022 as a Launchpad against his
predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, in Mount Kenya.”
The Kiambaa and Juja by-elections were the most consequential political contests that solidified Ruto’s influence in the region at the expense of Uhuru’s Jubilee party.
These mini-polls will be a significant test for Kenya Kwanza.
Gachagua’s camp has announced plans to launch a national movement aimed at opposing taxes, setting the stage for a political showdown against Ruto in the by-elections.
The Banisa parliamentary seat fell vacant following the death of MP Kullow Hassan on March 25, 2023. Hassan was elected on a UDM ticket, a party led by Mandera Senator Ali Roba.
In
Magarini, former MP Harrison Gombe lost his seat after the Supreme Court upheld
the nullification of his election in March 2024.
In Ugunja, voters will head to the polls after their MP, Opiyo Wandayi of ODM, was appointed Energy Cabinet Secretary in July 2024.
In Malava, the seat became vacant following the death of ANC MP Malulu Injendi.
With ANC having been dissolved following its resolution to merge with UDA, the ruling party will now face off against Raila’s ODM.
Ford Kenya could also field a candidate in the Kakamega-based constituency, which has not elected an ODM MP since 2007.
