Why Ruto, Raila face uphill task in ’27 plan

Ruto and Raila have signed a deal to formalise the partnership between UDA and ODM, signaling the making of a Kenya Kwanza reelection grand plan.

Details of the deal are yet to be disclosed but sources intimated that ODM could get more Cabinet and Principal Secretary slots in the immediate term and that a pre-2027 election alliance cannot be ruled out.

Ruto and Raila have, however, come together at a time a section of Kenyans are bitter that the Kenya Kwanza administration has reneged on its 2022 poll pledges.

Political observers hold that the ground is charged against the Ruto government, especially for failing in the promise to make life easier in the face of the tough economic times.

Kenya Kwanza is accused of raiding the payslips of salaried Kenyans, leaving them almost empty-handed, amid no signs that the cost of living would ease in the near future.

The Ruto administration is rated poorly on its pledges to probe state capture, end extrajudicial killings, transfer functions to counties, reduce food prices, provide free internet and calls, honour court rulings, end brutal evictions, and to ratify the treaty on enforced disappearances.

Opposition troops, ostensibly buoyed by the negative perception and the prevailing crises, are rallying each other to nominate a single candidate to face off with Ruto.

This played out on Thursday during rebranding of the Martha Karua-led Narc Kenya to the People’s Liberation Party.

She was joined by impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa.

Speaker after speaker vouched for a united force against Ruto, triggering questions on whether voters would defy Raila should he say “Ruto Tosha”.

Pundits hold that should the widespread dissent against Ruto continue into 2027 and the opposition sticks together, the duo would have no fighting chance.

Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru aka Mejadonk, a staunch Gachagua ally, said the two cannot succeed in 2027.

“If you have listened to Wanjiku (citizens), they are saying they are suffering and are looking for someone who can rescue them,” he said.

For the lawmaker, the government is facing opposition because it has failed to reduce the cost of living, ensure SHA is working, and clear issues around the universities funding model.

“For anybody teaming up with Ruto, Kenyans are saying they are after their stomachs…The people have already decided that they are sending him home…whoever wants to join them can do so but they will be sent home,” Gathiru said.

For the lawmaker, those teaming with the President would suffer a trust deficit.

Gathiru argued that Mt Kenya trusted Ruto and the people believed they could work with him but he has instead destroyed political careers for most of Mt Kenya leaders.

“The political lives of these people have been destroyed and those were his friends. How sure is Raila that they will get that trust? So, even if they join hands it will be easier to send all of them home,” Gathiru explained.

For Gachagua and Kalonzo’s people, the prayer is that Raila is yet to publicly agree to a 2027 plan or to shoulder Ruto’s political baggage.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said they believe the Ruto government would not deliver on any of the election promises.

“It is important for Raila to help Ruto survive until 2027 but I don’t see that relationship going beyond 2027 and, finally, it is ODM which is going to suffer,” he said.

“The problem with Ruto is too many lies and the corruption in his government, and abductions.”

He argued that the two may not stick together in 2027 owing to their ideological differences and that it was time for Raila to say “Kalonzo Tosha”.

“Raila believes the opposite of everything Ruto does. He should take Ruto to 2027 and then decide whether ODM would have a presidential candidate or not,” Maanzo said.

“Ruto has weak management skills and promotes corruption… If they go together, they will lose. If ODM’s presidential candidate is Ruto, they will lose to Kalonzo Musyoka.”

ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna is among top guns in Raila’s circle who have also dismissed his chances of winning when working with Ruto.

Raila has promised a grand announcement after his tours to consult with his supporters on his next move.

He has made stops in Nyanza and is expected to move on to other regions.

With Mt Kenya out of the Ruto matrix, the grand question is what alternatives remain for the duo, especially with Raila drifting apart from some of his pre-2022 poll allies.

Unlike the Gachagua-Kalonzo side, Raila and Ruto are believed to command large swathes of the Maasai vote and also the North Eastern bloc.

Political analyst Javas Bigambo says the President and his newfound ally Raila’s future hugely depends on how their rivals would organise themselves ahead of the elections.

“Making sure they have no single coalition opponent could work for them. A Gachagua-Kalonzo-led single coalition would be an uphill task for the Raila team and Ruto,” he said.

“If we have three coalitions or four…to divide opposition, there will be a great fighting chance for Raila and Ruto faction.”

He asserted that the questions that will inform the choices include whether the economy and the state of implementation of policies like health, education, will have worked.

President Ruto has been making forays into Western, Coast and Nyanza to popularise himself to the people and market his projects.

These are areas the President hardly made moves in during the 2022 campaign, the same way he is avoiding Mt Kenya after his bitter fallout with Gachagua.

In his tours, Ruto has maintained that his administration is on course to deliver the plan and that his team needs to communicate better about its work.

Bigambo says it would be foolhardy to dismiss Ruto and Raila, arguing that the latter has a way of creating a euphoria around him.

“Ruto has his own loyal base, so is Raila…those bases for Raila have been disgruntled before but get the euphoric following when it comes to elections. Raila may not jump ship as his people are holding crucial ministries and they will want to argue that they have helped turn around the economy,” he said.

Several factors are also likely to shape the political landscape including the expected May 9 Court of Appeal decision on Gachagua’s impeachment.

A decision to keep the DP in the cold or give him a political lifeline is viewed as having big consequences for the 2027 poll.

Pundits argue that if Gachagua wins, he may not come back as DP but would make his ouster a campaign issue.

Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah said the ongoing Nadco process has elements aimed at fulfilling some of the Ruto poll pledges.

Some quarters, however, believe that Nadco is one of the things that brought Ruto and Raila together, that is to use their numerical strengths to ram through amendments to the constitution.