KIBII: As Kenya gets cozy with US, China isn't relenting

On President William Ruto’s state visit, President Joe Biden said the world is safer when Kenya and the US work together.

During the visit themed “Partnership for Prosperity”, Biden said the two states were beginning the next decade of partnership, as he announced a new initiative to bring the two countries, companies, and communities closer together.

Kenya also became the third African country to be designated a major non-NATO ally of the US after Egypt and Morocco, meaning more defence and security support.

In his remarks, President Ruto said he was confident the bilateral partnership will offer solutions the world so seriously needs.

It almost goes without saying that China and her diplomats in Washington and Nairobi were watching and listening closely.

It has every reason to do so because the second global economic power believes or actually knows the US is undercutting her emergent influence. And Kenya being a strategic state in Africa, is an ally each of the extremes in the geopolitics would want closer, thus the Look West or East debate.

President Ruto told CNN Kenya is neither looking East nor West: It is looking forward, he said. 

His Ambassador in Beijing Willy Bett says Kenya is a friend to all, and that it has taken the position that I “am a friend to you not because you are an enemy to somebody else”.

“Our friendship is between me and you. If you have a problem with somebody else, I am not involved. This is a position we have taken since Independence with the Non-Aligned Movement”.

“Kenya holds its relations with China very highly, the same with the US. It is for the friends of Kenya to understand they are dealing with a partner who is not an enemy to anyone,” Bett said in Beijing, as he hinted at an impending high-level visit.

This position is reflected in the Kenya Kwanza manifesto, which states: “We will not only deepen our bonds with our long-standing international and bilateral partners, including the US, the EU, the UK, China, and India, but we will also extend our friendship to anyone with whom we believe a mutually beneficial relationship can be formed”.

For foreign policy observers, however, it is not lost on them that President Ruto has oriented towards the West since coming to office while maintaining essential contact with the East.  

It is also not easy for Kenya to accommodate the interests of these two opposing powers: Delicate balancing game.

KENYA-CHINA BETTER DAYS

Under presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya-China relations blossomed, with increased trade and infrastructure development cooperation.

The relationship upgraded twice during Uhuru’s time, in August 2013 and May 2017, when he visited Beijing.

Relations between Washington and Nairobi remained during the Kibaki and Uhuru administrations, although there were issues at the start of President Kenyatta’s administration due to the ICC cases.

By the time Kibaki left office, bilateral trade had increased from $250.5 million in 2003 to $2.8 billion at the end of 2012, according to the China=Africa Research Initiative at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

China became Kenya’s largest trading partner, the largest country of contracted project companies, number one of countries providing concessional loans and until recently, the number one bilateral lender.

Kenya imported goods worth Sh452.6 billion ($3.1 billion) from China in 2022, an increase of 2.5 per cent from Sh441.4 billion ($3 billion) the previous year, accounting for 18.2 per cent of the total import bill in the year, according to KNBS. Kenya’s exports to China multiplied by more than 30 over the past 15 years and in 2022, exports were worth Sh27. 55 billion up from Sh21.89 billion in 2021, representing a 25.9 percent increase.

The improved and transformational infrastructure development in Kenya reflected those deep relations: Thika Superhighway, the SGR, the Lamu port and Lapsset projects, four bypasses in Nairobi, the Nairobi Expressway, the Likoni floating bridge and the Kipevu Oil terminal, among other projects. Visits between Nairobi and Beijing increased as well.

However, the infrastructure development came with debt to China. As of December 2023, Kenya owed China $6.3 billion -  19.4 per cent of Kenya’s external debt -  a debt it is struggling to pay back.

It is no secret that the debt became a campaign issue in the high-octane politics of the August 2022 elections. Ruto's camp accused Uhuru of over-borrowing, particularly from China.

They promised not to borrow more, a promise already broken.

That President Ruto’s Foreign Policy-oriented to the West right after his election was par for the course. His travels for bilateral and multilateral meetings have mainly been to Europe and the US, compared to one visit to Beijing for the Third Belt and Road Initiative forum in October 2023.

He skipped the Russia-Africa Summit, and said he would be represented by the AU leadership and didn’t attend the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa, opting to send then Foreign Affairs Minister Alfred Mutua.

Even in the summits in Nairobi, the President has often addressed Western events such as the AmCham Business Summit and EU-Kenya Business Forum.

And while the President has met China Ambassador to Kenya Zhou Pingjian a couple of times, they are dwarfed by the number of engagements he has had with US Ambassador Meg Whitman, who has publicly been praised by the Kenya Kwanza administration leadership.

CHINA CONCERNED?

When I asked Ambassador Zhou in 2022 whether Beijing was concerned by the Western orientation of the Ruto administration, he said, "We are confident that under the leadership of President Ruto and President Xi [Jinping], the comprehensive strategic cooperation partnership will get stronger for mutual benefit for our two countries and our people”.

It wouldn’t be correct to say relations between Beijing and Nairobi are cold. China has ensured continued contact in various fronts in trade, technology and political party exchanges. It is not letting go.

On invitation by President Xi, Ruto was among the countable African leaders in Beijing for the BRI Forum. He held talks with his host, who said China approaches its relationship with Kenya from “a strategic and long-term perspective”, and was ready to work with Kenya to promote the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

Additionally, and this is important, Xi said China is ready to carry out exchanges of experience in governance with Kenya.

It was, therefore, not by coincidence that as Ruto embarked on the US state visit, a delegation of the ruling United Democratic Alliance party arrived in Beijing on May 21 for a 10-day working visit at the invitation of the Communist Party of China.

The Kenya Embassy in China said the visit themed "Party Building and Modernisation Road," aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and promoting friendly cultural exchanges.

The visit was a culmination of heightened engagements between the two political parties, with UDA Secretary General Cleophas Malala hosting CPC executive deputy head of the organisation department Jiang Xinzhi in Nairobi on March 15, 2024.

Malala announced that the CPC would assist UDA in establishing a leadership school at the party headquarters.

At the Xi-Ruto talks, Beijing welcomed Nairobi to make full use of trade promotion initiatives and platforms such as the "green channel" for African agricultural product exports to China, share in China's market and the dividends of China's opening up, and increase the export of high-quality products to China.

He also said China encourages more Chinese enterprises to invest in Kenya, expand cooperation in the digital economy, new energy and other fields, and help Kenya realize green development.

In this regard, Agriculture CS Mithika Linturi on May 16 attended the launch of the China-Kenya Tea Trade Center, and the signing ceremony of a partnership between Kenyan orthodox and speciality tea manufacturers and Benny Tea/Fujian Starchina Tea Company in Shanghai, China.

A week earlier, the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo (CAETE) in Africa 2024 was launched in Nairobi seeking to expand trade and investment between the two states, with a high-level delegation from central China's Hunan Province in attendance.

Trade and Investments CS Rebecca Miano said the three-day event was a testament to the long-standing cooperation and friendship between China and Africa.

"The real focus of the event is to serve as a catalyst for unlocking Africa's unexplored potential by seamlessly connecting with China's investment and trade community," Miano said.

There are also ongoing collaborations in the tech field, with the latest of those engagements being the Huawei ICT Competition in Shenzhen, where the government is represented by TVET  Principal Secretary Dr. Esther Muoria.

In January Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs Minister Musalia Mudavadi in Beijing, where he said China stands ready to consolidate political mutual trust with Kenya, deepen comprehensive cooperation, and bring China-Kenya relations to a new level.

Ruto is expected in Beijing for the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) later in September.

GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY 

The US and China are involved in geopolitical and strategic rivalry for influence, and this competition is playing out on different fronts and grounds in Africa.

Ruto’s visit was termed historic not only because it was the first state visit by a Kenyan president in two decades, but also the first by an African head of state since 2008. That Ruto delivered greetings from Africa on this trip was not just a casual statement.

Having identified Africa’s need for development, China has used its infrastructure diplomacy to establish its presence across the continent – at least 35 countries - through the Belt and Road Initiative with a total investment of $155 billion over the past two decades.

Kenya has been a beneficiary, with one of China's largest investments being the $4.7 billion SGR.

As Kenya seeks further funding to extend the SGR to Malaba onto Uganda in a joint bid, the US is following suit in infrastructure diplomacy.

Among the deals signed in the US was the financing of the $3.6 billion (Sh472. 9 billion) Mombasa-Nairobi expressway. Like the Chinese-built Nairobi Expressway, the Mombasa one will be a PPP and a toll road.

State House said the state visit demonstrated the robust partnership between Kenya and the US and was a fitting tribute to 60 years of strong diplomatic ties.

Among the issues on the agenda were economy, trade and investments; defence cooperation; democracy, governance, and civilian security; multilateral and regional issues; as well as health cooperation.

The Haiti issue, however, took centre stage with Kenya having agreed to send 1,000 police officers to the Multinational Security Support, which the US is funding with up to $300 million.

When the Security Council in October voted to authorise the deployment of the mission, China and Russia abstained from the resolution that had 13 in favour.

In explaining its position, China Permanent Representative Amb Zhang Jun said while they appreciated Kenya's willingness to lead the mission, they have always taken a cautious and responsible approach to the authorisation of the use of force due to abuse in past cases.

“Without a legitimate, effective, and responsible government in place, any external support can hardly have any lasting effects,” he said.

While Beijing might not care much about Kenya sending troops, the American influence to having Nairobi deploy and lead the mission will not have them sit pretty. And this cuts across many other issues of interest.