As it turned out, local broad-based ODM leaders
were left with egg on their faces, after the Linda Mwananchi team stormed the
lakeside city to a rousing welcome.
It is also
safe to state that the Linda Mwananchi Kisumu showpiece would never have
happened if the vicious attack on Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi had not taken
place in the lakeside city on April 8.
At least not last weekend.
It was that brazen attack that motivated the defiance within the movement to
prove a point to state operatives and local politicians that they could not
carve out Kisumu as a no-go zone.
In fact, the
announcement of the Kisumu date was first made right next to Senator Osotsi’s
hospital bed, as he recuperated from the injuries.
From then on, and with
Nakuru still to be visited, the team quickly slotted Kisumu after Nakuru, with
an impromptu but hugely successful Vihiga “homecoming tour” for Osotsi slated a
day earlier. In simple terms, Senator Osotsi took one for the team and fuelled
the momentum towards Kisumu.
There was a
level of desperation within government circles and the broad-based ODM networks
in the town that pointed to fear that the proverbial wind would blow and the
chicken would be exposed.
The litany of threats, from such diverse sources as
sitting MPs, former MPs, boda boda leaders and local youth groups, could only
mean that they all knew that a visit by Linda Mwananchi would ultimately expose
the sinking sand on which they had built their narratives.
There is a
common saying in Kenyan politics whenever an opponent or opposing formation
attracts huge crowds: This is that “crowds don’t translate to votes”.
Yet the
Kisumu extravaganza did not seem to be merely about the large spontaneous crowds
alone. A closer look captured the passion and conviction of the people.
At some
point, cameras captured patients at a local hospital gathering on the balcony of
their facility to soak in a bit of the vibe from the ecstatic streets.
There are
lessons to be learnt from the success of the ODM rebels in Kisumu. One of them
is that the carefully choreographed and controlled political activities in the
land may not necessarily translate to acceptance within the grassroots.
I have
stated here before that the Luo community is inherently pro-justice and quite
beholden to loud political activism. The manner in which the state and
broad-based ODM have gone out of their way to paint a picture of total
conformity is itself a lie.
In many
ways, President Ruto appears desperate to create the image that the Luo
community is a ready vote bloc to back his re-election should he ultimately
lose his erstwhile Mt Kenya backers.
But he has gone about it all wrong.
There is near-consensus that he would have reaped more political rewards in Luo
Nyanza by letting ODM go through the paces of transitioning into the post-Raila
realm without what seems to be perennial state manipulation and choreography.
But as the
weeks and months roll by, young Luo voters are openly questioning the hurriedly
convened process that installed Oburu Oginga after Raila, and the unending
spectacle of government largesse showered on the party, which can only mean
that the party acts on the whims of the President rather than the desires of
the grassroots.
By the time Linda Mwananchi finally arrived in the lakeside
city, the discontent had grown louder, and ODM leaders must have known how deep
it was, enough to try and stop the rally.
It is
important to note that the attack on Osotsi and the foolish harassment of
Senator Richard Onyonka at an establishment in Siaya town just a day before the Kisumu
rally, helped fuel the desire by locals to distance themselves from the goon
culture that was taking root in town.
State operatives might not know this, but
when goons run riot and show the brazenness that can only be a result of state
protection, the message conveyed to the grassroots is that no one would be safe
under the incumbent regime.
Indeed, the
government’s poor handling of the Osotsi attack left local residents with the
option of turning up to pass the message that they didn’t identify with the
activities of the goons.
As of now, apart from the three attackers who were
charged in court, and who reportedly presented themselves to police rather than
being arrested, at least 10 of the Senator’s attackers are still at large.
I need to
mention that since the restoration of multi-party politics in 1992, the Luo
community has never gone to the ballot to vote for an incumbent.
A lot of that has
to do with the presence of both Jaramogi and Raila Odinga, but incumbents tend
to carry the baggage of regime failures in the preceding five-year cycle, and
therefore tend to be judged harshly by the politically conscious people.
For this
trend to be broken and a vote for Ruto attempted, the persuasion has to be made
by a hugely credible community leadership, whose integrity, like Raila’s before
it, is beyond reproach.
Unfortunately, in “overseeing” the ODM transition, the
President has opted to prop up ODM leaders who fit his desires, rather than the
really respected leaders, in a community where credibility in leadership holds
very high premium.
If anything,
the fact that local broad-based leaders could only resort to threats and fake
cancellation notices of the Linda Mwananchi meeting on Sunday confirms that
they, too, do not believe that they have the people behind them.
A confident
political leader or government operative would, at the very least, hold enough
sway within the masses not to worry about which political formation passes by.
All
political coalitions now have to reset and recalibrate their strategy for the
2027 election. As things currently stand, Linda Mwananchi is growing from
strength to strength and capturing the imagination of young people all across
the country.
A commentator rightly noted that this is the only formation that
can get a rousing welcome everywhere in the country, without having to seek the
permission of local political lords or tagging along local faces for
acceptance.
Because the
Kisumu rally has broken some perceived barriers, the next few months portend a
situation where all parties across the political divide will pause their strategy
to keep an eye on this youthful movement’s plans.
If Linda Mwananchi morphs
into a political party and fronts a presidential candidate, all early
calculations will be off the table. It is my estimation that, backed by a
multi-tribal, countrywide youth movement, this is so far the only political
grouping that can run a credible presidential candidate without needing to
enter into the usual coalitions based on perceived regional strengths.
Which is my
way of saying that after storming Kisumu, and especially if it holds together and
remains strong, the real national electoral movement has now become the Linda
Mwananchi faction.
It will predictably start receiving defectors in the coming
weeks, while also appearing to capture bases previously carved out for certain
parties and tribal lords. And that, overall, will be a very good thing for our
politics. The chase is on for the 2027 prize!
The writer is a political commentator
