The drumbeats of the 2027 election are sounding louder amid early preparations by politicians and their parties for a faceoff with incumbent William Ruto.
The year has started on high political gear, in what pundits say, makes it the defining year for the next cycle of electoral competition.
Camps are already building up to fight it out with the Kenya Kwanza administration, taking advantage of perceived dissent among the citizenry.
Among the formations include that led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who has declared he would ensure Ruto serves a single term.
Gachagua is working to build alliances with Azimio’s top guns who are disgruntled by their leader Raila Odinga’s decision to work with Ruto.
The former Deputy President has said he’s working on a jumbo coalition that will shake Ruto’s campaign and send Kenya Kwanza home.
Gachagua is reaching out to Raila’s former compatriots in the grand plan and has also been building a team he expects to use to sweep UDA out of power.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is also on the go, connecting with new bases he seeks to capitalise on in the upcoming campaign.
He is eyeing Mt Kenya and is said to be working with the likes of Gachagua and other Azimio compatriots to forge a united front.
PLC leader Martha Karua is also mobilising and is likely to work with Gachagua and Kalonzo.
The idea - according to insiders - is to form a team similar to that which kicked out the Kanu regime in 2002. Former Interior minister Fred Matiang’i is also said to be gearing up to challenge Ruto in the 2027 duel.
His Gusiiland has indicated support for the cause; leaders from his backyard are gravitating towards the campaign, citing grounds of neglect by the Ruto side.
Jubilee Party secretary general Jeremiah Kioni has hinted that the party may sponsor the former Interior CS. Much as his activities in the foreground seem to take a backburner, Okiya Omtatah is also raring to go for the country’s top seat.
He is touted as the Gen Z’s favourite, having shaped his brand as the best to defend the rights of Kenyans. However, since his arrest following the anti-abduction protests, little has been heard or seen of the presidential campaign.
President Ruto has equally embarked on regional tours which are viewed by political watchers as having campaign connotations.
The President began the year with a series of tours of Nyanza, Western and his Rift Valley backyard and has kept off the restive Mt Kenya.
President Ruto has been going around with the message that his team has worked to alleviate the sorry economic situation.
He has put a case for reelection - holding that the deemed unpopular policies have seen inflation get to its lowest, boosting foreign reserves hence making the economy stable.
As a result, the country is slowly gravitating to an electioneering mood, with more fireworks expected in the near term.
Political watchers say being a defining year, 2025 can give a glimpse of the alliances to watch as the country hurtles towards elections. Political commentator Javas Bigambo posited that 2025 “is a consequential political year for President Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza administration”.
“It is factually mid-term for his leadership and the consequences of his policies and their implementation are properly on the weighing scale,” Bigambo explained.
“It means that 2025 is a year that helps potential voters to start taking political sides and that is why it is a consequential year towards the 2027 general election,” he added.
Following unpopular policies of the Kenya Kwanza administration, pundits say the groupings have found easy fodder for the masses.
This is said to have the potential of pushing the President as well as members of his administration into an early campaign.
“From the analytical perspective of those policies, his opponents will easily pick digestible and fact-based issues with which to bombard him by facing potential voters and drive their early campaign agenda,” Bigambo said.
As such, the Kenya Kwanza administration would in 2027 defend its track record and not the promises which worked the magic for Ruto in the 2022 contest.
“The President may not easily enthrall the people with promises, but solid evidence-based leadership,” the governance specialist told the Star in an interview. Dr Charles Nyambuga, a commentator from Maseno University, also said the formations that have started appearing would be of significant consequence.
“The Matiang’i factor can easily hive off Kisii and Kuria areas. Natembeya is also coming up as the man to watch in not only Trans Nzoia but the entire western…he seems to be much more vibrant than his party leader, Eugene Wamalwa, and is carving off a niche,” the communications don said.
With the ‘rebranded Gachagua’ seeking to join them, the incumbent has work cut out to counter the machinations. “It is going to be quite a fight,” Nyambuga stated, adding that the Mt Kenya factor would also be a significant determinant.
The Ruto axis has Rift Valley and is eyeing Luo Nyanza, Rift Valley, Western and Coast in the face of the signals that Mt Kenya is gone. Nyambuga says the 2027 vote would have an “interesting political divide.”
“Uhuru, Kalonzo, Matiang’i may be on one side – that is the anti-Ruto side, which may also include Gachagua. They look potent. Ruto will be in need of real numbers. It is not coming out clearly,” he said.
For the don, the administration “has angered two critical people across the country – the working class by deducting their income and the business community which relies on the working class”.
“The business community is feeling the pinch. In this respect, Ruto is remaining with the hoi polloi, which depended on the former middle class,” Dr Nyambuga said.
Ruto backers, however, disagree, saying he would be no pushover, having demonstrated in 2022 when he beat all systems that were laid against him. Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura said the President has in his lifetime proven that a person can rise from “obscurity and beat all odds”.
“He has never lost any election of his own and broke the record as a sitting DP who transitioned into the presidency in an election that pitted him against his boss,” he said.
Mwaura added, “One of the most outstanding attributes is that he doesn’t give up easily and goes ahead to push anything that he sights on towards success”.
For political analyst Fatma Barayan, Ruto is not the type of politician to write off , saying judging his popularity by social media banter is inaccurate. “Is it not the exact position that US President Donald Trump was in two years before the election that he won?” she said.
