COLLINS AJUOK: Broad-based government now triggers fault lines in Luo Nyanza

When Raila Odinga’s National Development Party entered into a cooperation agreement with President Daniel Moi’s Kanu following the 1997 elections, there was practically no opposition to the framework within NDP’s Luoland base.

In fact, the only NDP National Assembly legislator who ever spoke up against the cooperation between the two parties was Limuru MP George Nyanja.

He had comically secured a last-minute NDP ticket in the 1997 polls, after being ‘betrayed’ by his original party, DP, and went on to win in faraway Kiambu district, ordinarily hostile to the Raila party.

Well, to be fair, the little opposition against the Raila-Moi arrangement in the former’s homeland emerged from former Ugenya MP James Orengo and the former Gem MP Joe Donde, but neither was a member of NDP, having survived the party’s wave in the 1997 polls to romp home on Ford Kenya tickets.

Aside from the two, the general consensus at that time was that the Luo community could no longer oppose government merely for opposition’s sake, leaving the area behind in development.

But a closer examination reveals that part of the reason the framework had little opposition was that Raila’s influence then had hardly extended beyond Luo Nyanza, so it was easy to achieve the homogeneity of political support in his base.

Perhaps a second reason was that Luoland comes with a history of perennial marginalisation, and as Moi himself being an admittedly poor leader, the expectations of him were too few to warrant any push and pull.

Nearly three decades later, this time with his ODM Party, Raila finds himself in another controversial cooperation agreement, now with President William Ruto’s UDA, but this time he must deal with voices of discontent within his party, including from key Luo lieutenants such as Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o and Siaya Governor James Orengo.

Questions have been asked whether the voices in ODM that appear to counter Raila’s are not, in fact, doing so at his instigation, as part of a political game to keep one foot in one camp and another outside, as a safety net ahead of the 2027 polls.

In contrast with 1997, Raila’s influence today extends across huge chunks of the country, his ODM Party has bases across tribal lines and the general population is far more enlightened than it was three decades ago.

Therefore, the questions and demands for accountability are far louder than in 1997 and, given how much bigger ODM is now compared to what NDP was then, some of this uncomfortable scrutiny over the Ruto deal inevitably comes from senior members and sections of ODM.

There is a deeper issue at play, though. In his desired cooperation with Raila and ODM, President Ruto is obviously interested in the Luo bloc, as opposed to ODM as a whole party. But in Luo politics, the most consequential leaders, outside Raila Odinga, have been and remain Governors Orengo and Nyong’o.

They were not only Raila’s peers among the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s Young Turks in the struggle for political pluralism, but the three have been together the longest, through the delicate second liberation period.

Any of them would have emerged as the community’s supremo at any moment in the last four decades. Intriguingly, both Nyong’o and Orengo have now emerged as two of the leaders opposed to the friendly terms between UDA and ODM.

In contrast, the younger MPs largely promoting political union in the land, are not the sort who inspire confidence in the viability of the cooperation.

I was shocked, for instance, when Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi last week launched an unprovoked attack on Orengo on the floor of Parliament.

Temporary Speaker Martha Wangari had to intervene to remind Atandi that Orengo wasn’t in the House and the MP needed to bring a substantive motion to discuss the Siaya Governor. In political terms, Atandi is not fit to tie Orengo’s shoelaces.

The Siaya governor is the quintessential freedom fighter, an uncompromising progressive, and a permanent fixture in Kenya’s journey of constitutional reforms.

The audacity of Atandi, a man whose contributions to the public sphere is not known, to attack a figure of Orengo’s stature, over the broad-based government, is quite shocking.

Granted that the new government arrangement and the concessions made to attain it may have led to Atandi becoming chairman of the Budget Committee in the National Assembly.

Still, there is no political platform to compare Atandi and Orengo, except on the sycophancy index, where Atandi seems to excel. If President Ruto intends to make the cooperation long term, he will need more than sycophancy from his new partners to make the work.

There is another angle to the whole story. Some pundits have suggested President Ruto is engaging directly with local Luo leaders such as Atandi, and many of his colleagues in Luoland to create a potent movement of surrogates.

That hoped-for movement would then become a political tool and tactic resembling what then-Deputy President Ruto did to then-President Uhuru Kenyatta between 2017 and 2022, in the Mt Kenya region.

Ruto then went on a political assault that turned the tables on Uhuru, winning the minds and souls of the region’s residents, ultimately riding roughshod over Raila who was backed by Uhuru at the 2022 ballot.

It is possible President Ruto intends to quietly inherit Raila’s base, in a smooth operation that will go all the way to the ballot in 2027, but if the method involves antagonising senior politicians in Luo Nyanza, while deploying younger ones to carry his agenda, the project may well backfire thunderously.

The Luo, after all, unlike their Kikuyu counterparts, are creatures of longtime political structures, hugely loyal to set systems and beholden to predictable patterns.

To overthrow an existing order in their land would require a lot more than the Mt Kenya method of the five years between 2017 and 2022.

At any rate, the ultimate destiny of Luo politics will rest with the respected leaders of old, not the younger pretenders to the throne. Both Orengo and Nyong’o have been on opposite sides of Raila before.

After surviving the NDP wave in 1997 and retaining his seat on a Ford Kenya ticket in 1997, Orengo was swept aside by the Narc wave of 2002, only to return in 2007 in Raila’s ODM.

Meanwhile, Nyong’o, who had lost to little-known Winston Ochoro Ayoki in the Kisumu rural contest in 1997, made a comeback via Narc in 2002 and hasn’t lost an election since. That both have found a way to work with Raila since then is a blessing that is hugely underrated.

Even more importantly, the truth is that the two have grown into the most trusted political voices for both Raila and his followers.

No matter what paid bloggers do to paint the broadbased government as being beloved of the people, it would be naïve to dismiss the contrary words of the two gentlemen, because history suggests they may hold the last word, either in conjunction with Raila, or in a new dispensation in which Raila is not necessarily a factor.

Truth be told, the likes of Atandi wouldn’t have a clue about the destination of the ship.

The writer is a political commentator