Oburu’s uphill task: Will he steady the ODM ship, carry Raila’s torch?

The sudden passing of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has created a huge void in Kenyan politics, one that echoes far beyond his family and the Luo nation.

For nearly three decades, his name was synonymous with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the opposition, and the relentless struggle for democratic reform.

His towering presence was the party’s engine, its compass, and its most potent symbol.

Now, with his brother’s voice stilled, the formidable burden of steering this vessel through turbulent waters falls to Dr Oburu Oginga.

Oburu, 82, was named acting party leader in a swift move by the ODM national executive committee (NEC) at a special party meeting held hot on the heels of his brother's passing.

He steps in not merely as a caretaker, but as the man tasked with holding a fractious party together, a party grappling with an existential question of what ODM becomes in the post-Raila era.

ODM deputy party leader and Mombasa governor Abdulswamad Nassir said Oburu was chosen because the party needed a person who is not distracted by presidential or gubernatorial ambitions.

“I am the one who proposed him, seconded by my counterpart deputy and Kisii governor Simba Arati. We chose him for his sobriety, emotional attachment, and being the closest confidante of our departed party leader,” Nassir said.

He went on, “Dr Oburu was the closest confidant of Raila, even Mama Ida Odinga confirmed the same, and all the NEC members endorsed it. We couldn’t allow a vibrant party as ODM to stay without a leader.”

The governor disclosed that Oburu has hit the road running and has called a party NEC next week, to be followed by a meeting of the governing council to ratify the decision.

“We have upcoming by-elections, ODM@20 celebrations, and Baba@80 memorial, as well as the progress report on implementation of our MOU with UDA, as urgent businesses we cannot conduct without a leader. No uniting figure fit the bill as Oburu,” Nassir explained.

On paper, Oburu appears to be the logical, stabilising choice for this precarious transition.

He is not an outsider, having walked the long and turbulent political road shoulder-to-shoulder with his younger brother for over three decades.

As a former MP and current Senator, his deep institutional knowledge of ODM’s structures and his calm, deliberate temperament are seen as assets in a time of high emotion and potential chaos.

Party insiders say Oburu’s deep understanding of ODM’s structures, his long service in both national and regional politics and calm temperament give him an edge in uniting the movement as it regroups after Raila’s demise.

But even as Oburu is now stepping in to fit in Raila’s big shoes, he faces a storm of expectations, internal wrangles and a rapidly changing political landscape.

The Siaya senator comes at a time the Orange Party is literally at crossroads, torn between going it alone to capture power in 2027 or backing President William Ruto’s re-election.

The party that once thrived on Raila’s charisma and mobilisation power is now grappling with fragmentation, mistrust, and shifting loyalties.

From pro-Ruto forces within ODM to youthful MPs pushing for generational change, Oburu inherits a movement that must rediscover unity or risk fading into irrelevance.

The simmering battle exploded during Raila’s burial with two opposing sides trading barbs, signalling a turbulent period for the 20-year-old party.

On one hand is the Gladys Wanga faction pushing for continued dalliance with Ruto, while the other has firebrand Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna marinating the 2027 ODM-UDA deal was not part of the deal.

Oburu must now reconcile the pro-Ruto with a restless younger generation demanding new energy and direction.

According to Political Analyst Prof Gitile Naituli, the Senator might not be the glue to hold the party arguing that a split is inevitable.

“I foresee a situation where ODM bases like Coast and other regions peeling off to form their own party,” Naituli told the Star.

Also awaiting Oburu is the upcoming by-elections, seen as the first real test of his leadership, which will reveal whether he can transform Raila’s loyal base into a disciplined, political force.

ODM is battling to retain its Kasipul, Magarini and Ugunja MP seats in the coming by-elections scheduled for November 27.

The party also has candidates in various wards across its Western, Nyanza, Nairobi and Coast bases.

It is widely believed that if Oburu can navigate the by-elections with minimal fallout, project unity ahead of 2027, and articulate a fresh vision that resonates with supporters, he might pull off what would keep the Orange flame alive without Raila’s towering presence. 

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said the party’s leadership needs to listen more to the ‘party owners’ as they manage the transition following Raila’s exit.

“Baba used to listen to the people. I want to encourage ODM members that as leaders we must start listening to what the supporters are saying,” Sifuna said at the funeral service, which was held at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology.

He dismissed claims that the party will crumble following Raila’s death, saying its foundation remains strong because the principles he championed, including listening to the people, are deeply rooted in its culture.

In stepping into the big shoes, pundits say the party leader’s advantage lies in experience and lineage. As a seasoned legislator and long-time political strategist, Oburu commands respect within the party’s old guard.

His major challenge is to convert that respect into active trust among a restless rank-and-file.

Some political observers have, however, expressed reservations about the Senator’s ability to steer the movement in his brother’s absence.

Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula argued that the lawmaker will not only take the party to Ruto, but also lacks charisma and nationwide appeal needed to rally the supporters and unify the diverse factions.

“ODM has lost the centre bolt, it will face a turbulent future,” Savula told the Star on Tuesday.

He argued that State House was poised to take over ODM completely.  “All meetings of ODM will be controlled by Ruto at State House. All decision-making of the party will be subject to State House approval,” the deputy county chief said. “Oburu is in the camp of those supporting Ruto; they don’t have the political spin to match Raila.” 

ODM insiders, however, maintain that the party is prepared post-Raila and Oburu will rise to the occasion.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, himself a member of ODM, described the Senator as an experienced hand with the maturity to lead the party into the future.

“ODM, which is the party I belong has made a wise decision to appoint him as the party leader,” Wandayi said, “I will be opposing that ODM convene quickly to affirm Oburu as the party leader.”

Migori senator Eddie Oketch said the Senator’s choice is the best for the party, saying, unlike the busy governors, MPs have time to lead the party.

“The party should fully confirm Senator Oburu as party leader, because he will have the time to lead the party,” Oburu said, “So for ODM to stay alive, it will hugely depend on the party leader’s discipline.”

Raila died at the age of 80 years on October 15 from cardiac arrest in India, where he had sought treatment.

His death plunged the nation into mourning and unsettled the political arrangements he had initiated, and which now threaten the very unity of the party.