AJUOK:ODM faces vicious post-Raila succession wars

For many Kenyans across different generations, last week had to be the most surreal one in their lives. No matter whom you ask, the consensus is that no one had actually ever envisaged Raila Odinga lying dead or being interred in the soil.

Whether one loathed or loved the former Prime Minister, everyone saw him as larger than life, and hadn’t thought of death and Raila in the same sentence. The passionate outpouring of grief across the nation and world confirmed it.

But first things first. The whole process of death and the funeral of the icon brought out many heroes, individuals and institutions who went beyond the call of duty to give Raila a hugely dignified and deserved send-off.

There was silent unanimity across the nation that regardless of political or other leanings, we all needed to rally together in that moment, a unity hardly ever seen in these shores.

I want to mention just two for today. The first is news anchor Sam Gituku of Citizen TV. One of the earliest reporters to land at both Raila’s Opoda Farm and the homestead of Raila’s parents, Kang’o Ka Jaramogi, Gituku immersed himself into the job as if he had prepared allhis life for it. But by far his most brilliant delivery, for me, revolved around his reporting on Luo funeral rites and the attendant traditions and cultural practices. Luo culture is perhaps the most misreported and misunderstood of all, with less talented newsmen routinely picking up stuff, labelling them falsely and perpetuating stigma.

But Gituku was succinct. Along with his colleague and translator for that duration, Jay Bonyo, his reporting on the customs around the whole process was fascinating and on point on each occasion. It was refreshing, for a change, to hear a news reporter who sought to learn more, while on the job and averred freely to local experts. Besides, he got involved in certain tasks, such as the digging of the grave, and became a darling of the local youth. His is a template from which other media houses can learn.

The second in my heroes list is the national carrier, Kenya Airways. Between Raila’s death in India, and the discovery of the 72-hour burial deadline in his Will, pandemonium practically broke out as the government, the family and the ODM leadership rushed to fulfill the departed leader’s wishes. With barely any time to prepare, KQ had the difficult job of flying out to India and returning home with Raila’s mortal remains.

And yet, without a prior script or precedent to work with, the national carrier, improvised perfectly, as it flew not just the body of the enigmatic leader, but also carried a large group of government and national dignitaries. Their staff were absolute class, breaking the heavy silence on the return flight with well-placed messages of condolences and celebration of Raila’s life.

To crown it all, the change of the flight’s call sign to RAO001 was a creative masterpiece. Overall, KQ managed, with just one flight, to give the sombre occasion tonnes of dignity and grace, proving that indeed, they are the Pride of Africa.

But back home, the return flight hadn’t even entered Kenyan airspace when fast-moving activities within ODM showed that the party was no longer at ease: things were falling apart. Immediately the death was announced, the competition over his “last instructions” went into full gear. It was clear it was all going to be verbalised before the burial even happened.

First off the blocks was Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, who immediately on landing at Raila’s Opoda Farm to help oversee funeral arrangements, went to the gathered media and declared that ODM would “stand with President Ruto beyond 2027”. It seemed that this message was of such importance that it could not be delayed for the funeral rites of the ODM boss to be completed.

By the time the procession had completed the delicate Nairobi and Kisumu legs of the journey, to arrive in Bondo, the ceremony at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology could have been a campaign rally. Except for the new acting party leader, Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga, who was Raila’s elder brother, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who is also the party’s secretary general, Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o and Siaya  Governor James Orengo, every ODM leader who had the chance to speak became an instant member of the Ruto praise choir.

And in a bizarre twist, President Ruto decided to ‘take over’ the role of ODM leader, warning that he would “not allow” anyone to play around with the party.

It was at that point very keen watcher realised how weak the party’s position had become, because the competition to speak on its behalf had obviously involved the President, at least five Cabinet Secretaries and at least eight people within the party leadership. Nearly all of them came bearing the card “Baba told me”, reflecting a strange desire to become the one bearing Raila’s last political wishes. They appeared to ignore the public fact that at his very last public engagement — an ODM Parliamentary Group meeting at a hotel on  Mombasa Road on September 22, just over three weeks before his death — the ODM boss posed the question, “Who has told you?” to party leaders running the ‘Ruto beyond 2027’ narrative.

Indeed, when the press gathered outside the venue after the PG meeting sought clarification over Raila’s remarks, none other than National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed made it clear to them that Raila’s speech was “the resolution” that the party had made. Therefore, all issues, including the sticky matter of 2027 and whom to support in the forthcoming elections, were answered by Raila’s own words. It is inconceivable that the man everyone called “Baba” would be so unequivocal on a matter so publicly, then turn around in the last few days of life, to issue contradicting instructions.

There are difficult days ahead for the Orange Party. But I invite the leadership to grab a copy of the memoirs of the late former Karachuonyo MP, Phoebe Asiyo, one of the most iconic women leaders the country has ever produced. Soon after the death in 1994 of Jaramogi Oginga

Odinga, Raila’s father, Asiyo convened a meeting of the 21 Luo MPs at her home in Wikondiek, Karachuonyo. Having all agreed that Wamalwa Kijana would succeed Jaramogi as Ford Kenya chairman, this meeting was convened to build consensus on who would be the  vice-chairperson, and therefore, the new Luo leader, for all intents and purposes.

The contest was between the Ford Kenya deputy director of Elections Raila and Jaramogi’s sidekick and Ugenya MP, James Orengo, a man who had been such a permanent fixture beside the old man, that he had practically become a sounding board for Jaramogi’s views. Raila arrived late for the meeting, accompanied by Ford Kenya regional coordinator and confidant, Odungi Randa, now the Luo Ker (chairman of the Luo Council of Elders). Randa was not entitled to vote at this meeting, since he was not a Member of Parliament.

When the vote was taken, Asiyo abstained (being the host and convener), while Raila got only one vote (his own). All the other Luo MPs backed Orengo for new vice-chairman and the unofficial leader of the community.

When Raila stormed out of this Wikondiek meeting, it seemed the matter was settled. But a vicious fight for the soul of the Ford Kenya ensued, which culminated in the Langata MP resigning from both the party and from Parliament in late 1996, joining the little-known National Development Party, through which he ran and won in the subsequent by-election. But the general election would follow just months later in 1997, and NDP thoroughly crushed Ford Kenya in Luo Nyanza.

I share this story to demonstrate the sheer vanity of hanging onto a political outfit, or its famous name, without considering that the people who form its membership define its destiny.

In the case of ODM, a transition manipulated in high offices —with no regard to those thousands of stampeding youths who swamped Kasarani, Nyayo and Kisumu Mamboleo stadiums to view his body — will be meaningless. In 1997, Raila ran away with the people and left Ford Kenya gasping for political life, confining it to being regional party henceforth.

In the days following the death of Raila, the politics of 2027 has dominated discourse within ODM. It has been as if the party faction supporting the broad-based arrangement with President Ruto is too impatient to wait even a week, almost falling over themselves to declare that they will support him in the 2027 polls. So aggressive is this faction that it  seems ready to throw out anyone with a dissenting voice, never mind that Raila ran this big movement for 20 years on the premise of freedom of expression and enhanced democratic ideals.

One of the stark realities facing ODM is that those seeking to exploit the party’s fortunes in the 2027 elections haven’t yet made the distinction between ODM as a party and the Luo people as a community within the party. For all intents and purposes, Ruto’s interest in the party revolves around the Luo community.

Indeed, when the benefits of the broad-based arrangement are paraded, they all tend to be development projects within Luo Nyanza. The trouble with this is that Ruto’s 2027 plans with the Luo community do not address the plight of Raila’s huge base, encompassing Western Kenya (read the Luhya nation), the Kenyan Coast, the pastoralist communities and the passionate support the late icon enjoyed among the Kenyan urban poor.

Essentially, therefore, the succession for the next Luo kingpin is currently confused with that of the ODM party, the risk of which is that the party is dangerously headed to being a regional Luo movement, having alienated the huge base Raila left. But could this, in fact, be Ruto’s plan? Isn’t it indeed an advantage to him to have a small, easily malleable party, rather than the powerful mass movement Raila left behind? Unfortunately for both the President and his surrogates, they are walking the same path the late Kijana Wamalwa walked with Ford Kenya after Jaramogi’s death. Even with the supposed backing of the state, Wamalwa was unable to keep the masses within the party, and remained instead with a shell.

For purposes of argument, let us assume there is indeed a gap, a question of who will be the next Luo kingpin. I submit that the true Luo leaders today have to be Nyong’o  and Orengo. These two were not only Raila’s peers and bosom buddies from the second liberation period, but were proteges and close confidants of the preeminent community leader and independence hero, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Raila’s father. In terms of institutional memory and the long journey the community has travelled, through thoroughly turbulent seasons, no Luo leader alive today can compare to the two.

I was quite surprised when a hurriedly convened party caucus, before the return of Raila’s body from India, installed the departed PM’s brother, Senator Oburu Odinga, as acting party leader. Even without delving into community culture — in which an elder brother doesn’t inherit a younger one — many watchers must have assumed Nyong’o would have been a shoo-in for it. He had previously been tapped for this position by Raila himself, and sits in the party’s Central Management Committee.

It is noticeable that the broad-based government is attempting to influence how the leadership transition will take place in Luo Nyanza and ODM. But any transition that shuts out the community’s real leaders —including the two governors, and perhaps senior ones such  as former CS Raphael Tuju and Rarieda MP Otiende Amolo —is bound to fail flat. Even within ODM, any moves that leave out truly popular leaders such as Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino will only end up with a shell of ODM, while those shut out move with the people. After all, the real Raila following emanated from the thousands of passionate youths, who filled different venues to send him off last week.

Two things worry me, having noted the confusion between Luo and ODM succession. One is the emergence of an intolerant leadership during the mourning period. In a very short span of time, loud threats have become consistent and warned anyone disagreeing with certain viewpoints to leave the party. Additionally, it seems the new menacing disagreement mode in ODM, least as far party chairperson Governor Gladys Wanga is concerned, is to ban “enemies” from certain regions. The party is clearly staring at a new dispensation in which the freedoms and rights that Raila fought for, and which guided the party for 20 years, have been discarded.

My second worry is the rising anti-Kikuyu sentiment within Luo Nyanza, perpetuated by narratives seeking to convince the Luo community that their being in government comes at the expense of the Mt Kenya people. This notion perhaps informed the almost-overdone reaction to the despicable comments about Raila by Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga on Wednesday this week. It is disturbing that old Luo-Kikuyu fault lines are rising so soon after the country’s foremost unifying agent, Raila, has been laid to rest.

Be that as it may, my advice to everyone watching to see where especially the Luo community goes after this, is that the Luo are inherently anti-establishment and pro-justice.

To herd them into any arrangement that doesn’t mainstream the justice, freedom and the best interests of the nation, will be difficult, unless led by true heroes. The best way around it is to let leadership both in the community and the party transition in a people-led process.

Or else, the quest to instal yes-men and yes-women in the party and the community will backfire big time!

Collins Ajuok is is a political commentator