Opposition unity big headache for Ruto as Uhuru joins the fray

President William Ruto is headed for a bruising 2027 political battle as his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, moves to re-energise the opposition.

Uhuru’s renewed political activities, including plans to address several county caucuses, are being viewed as a calculated attempt to reclaim influence in key voting blocs across the country.

The former president’s strategy is to rally the disparate opposition figures into a formidable anti-Ruto movement.

Uhuru's latest interventions, including his calls for opposition leaders to work together during the burial of former Kirinyaga Senator John Karaba and recent remarks at a Jubilee Party Kiambu county caucus meeting, have added momentum to the camp.

The United Opposition brings together former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and Narc Kenya's Martha Karua, among other luminaries.

The Linda Mwananchi team of Edwin Sifuna have signalled a collaboration with the opposition group.

Political observers say Uhuru’s decision to openly align himself with calls to remove President Ruto from power in 2027 has injected credibility into the opposition movement.

His re-entry into active politics also comes at a time the Kenya Kwanza administration is grappling with growing public anger over the high cost of living, heavy taxation and persistent economic hardship.

A recent poll by Tifa Research showed that a united opposition remains President Ruto’s biggest threat heading into the 2027 election, especially if key regional kingpins rally behind a single candidate.

Analysts argue that Uhuru’s involvement fundamentally changes the political arithmetic, particularly in Mt Kenya, where President Ruto built his 2022 victory after successfully dismantling Uhuru’s grip on the region.

Now, however, the former president appears keen on reasserting himself politically while signalling support for a coalition aimed at denying Ruto a second term.

Unlike in previous elections, where Uhuru and opposition chief Raila Odinga competed against each other, the current dynamics place him closer to leaders pushing for a united anti-Ruto front.

Political strategists say the prospect of Uhuru working alongside Gachagua, Kalonzo, Matiang’i, Wamalwa and Sifuna could significantly complicate Ruto’s re-election path.

This would be especially if the opposition avoids internal fallout over leadership and presidential ambitions.

Uhuru is also expected to wield influence in counties such as Kajiado and Narok, where he historically enjoyed substantial support during his political rivalry with Raila.

In parts of Northeastern Kenya, Uhuru similarly maintained strong backing, often splitting support with Raila nearly evenly.

The battle for the country’s largest voting blocs is expected to define the election.

Nairobi currently accounts for about 2.69 million registered voters, while Western Kenya has approximately 2.44 million voters.

The northern bloc comprising Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Turkana counties contributes about 1.28 million voters.

Observers say Uhuru’s ability to influence parts of Mt Kenya, Nairobi, and sections of Northern Kenya could present one of the toughest political challenges President Ruto faces ahead of 2027.

Some analysts believe the position eventually assigned to Sifuna could determine how effectively the opposition penetrates Western Kenya and urban voting blocs.

While the opposition views Uhuru’s return as a breakthrough, Kenya Kwanza leaders dismiss suggestions that his involvement poses a danger to President Ruto’s re-election bid.

Pokot South MP David Pkosing downplayed the significance of Uhuru’s renewed activism, saying Ruto should remain focused on governance instead of political noise.

“Absolutely no threat. The other guys are looking for relevance. President Ruto should focus on national issues like fuel prices, national security and development. He has a high chance of securing his second term,” Pkosing said.

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma similarly argued that the opposition lacked the capacity to organise themselves to challenge President Ruto effectively, saying the President was “doing everything right before them.”

But opposition figures insist the political tide is shifting in their favour.

Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi, an ally of Jubilee presidential hopeful Fred Matiang’i, said the political pillars that propelled Ruto to power were steadily collapsing.

“The prospect of President William Ruto serving only one term continues to become clearer by the day,” Kibagendi said.

“Over time, I have consistently pointed out that the very pillars that propelled him to power have steadily eroded - the church, key voting blocs such as Mt Kenya, the hustler movement, the goodwill of the international community, public sympathy and the working class.”

Kibagendi accused sections of the ruling establishment of exhibiting signs of political desperation.

“What is even more troubling is the emerging rhetoric from some leaders allied to the President, including MPs, Senators and Governors, openly suggesting that elections can be manipulated if victory at the ballot proves difficult,” he said.

“Statements such as ‘watajaza debe hata isipojaa’ and claims that ‘no African President serves only one term’ reveal a growing sense of political desperation within sections of the ruling establishment.”

Democracy for Citizens Party deputy leader Cleophas Malala said Uhuru’s involvement gives the opposition strategic depth, financial muscle and national networks that it previously lacked.

“Uhuru comes with the resources, experience, network and can mobilise resources, hence a critical injection to the united opposition,” Malala said.

“Initially, Ruto thought he was the only person with financial muscle to mobilise the country to support a certain political ideology. He still thinks that money will be the defining factor. He is a little bit paranoid when he sees Uhuru trying to offer guidance and trying to put the opposition together.”

Uhuru’s renewed activism has also triggered sharp reactions from allies of the President.

Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire and East African Legislative Assembly MP Hassan Omar recently issued an open letter accusing the former president of attempting to undermine the government instead of allowing President Ruto to govern.

The leaders urged Uhuru to respect the outcome of the 2022 election and avoid engaging in what they described as behind-the-scenes political mobilisation against the administration.

Political commentator Tony Karomo believes Uhuru now represents the biggest political threat facing President Ruto.

“Uhuru Kenyatta is Ruto's biggest nightmare,” Karomo said, “Uhuru has nothing to lose, Ruto has everything to lose. Ruto can buy everyone; he even bought Raila Odinga. But he cannot afford Uhuru.”

Yet despite the growing momentum around opposition unity, doubts remain over whether the anti-Ruto camp can truly hold together long enough to mount a formidable challenge.

Some observers argue that the opposition has so far failed to demonstrate tactical sharpness or electoral effectiveness despite Uhuru’s perceived influence and political resources.

“They lost all by-elections in Mt Kenya and outside Mt Kenya. Where is Uhuru Kenyatta's money and connections? There is no energy and might in their operations,” Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi said.

Others note that Uhuru was unable to stop Ruto’s rise even while serving as President and controlling the instruments of state power.

“Uhuru has been in opposition since 2018, and he failed to make the Azimio coalition win in 2022 when he had state machinery. William Ruto dislodged Uhuru Kenyatta as Mt Kenya kingpin when he was the President,” a political observer argued.

There are also growing concerns that Rigathi Gachagua’s political ambitions could complicate efforts to forge a united opposition front.

Veteran journalist David Makali questioned whether Gachagua would ultimately subordinate his own presidential ambitions for the sake of unity.

“At the rate his appetite for getting back to power is growing, who will stop Riggy G from contesting for president in 2027 to unseat his nemesis, Ruto?” Makali posed.

“His stealthy moves will soon render the United Opposition dream a mirage.”

INSTANT ANALYSIS

For now, however, Uhuru’s return to active political mobilisation has undeniably altered the country’s political landscape and intensified the battle for the country’s most critical voting blocs. Whether the opposition can transform that momentum into a disciplined and united political machine remains uncertain.