Fresh tensions are emerging within the opposition over the choice of its presidential ticket, with Martha Karua joining calls for a scientific method to determine the coalition’s pick.
Karua's position aligns her with Fred Matiang’i, who has consistently argued that the opposition should settle on a candidate through a verifiable scientific method rather than political negotiations.
The push, however, places the two leaders on a collision course with sections of the coalition that maintain elections are won through political numbers, grassroots networks and negotiated consensus.
Speaking during an interview on Spice FM on Wednesday, Karua said the opposition must allow Kenyans to determine who among the contenders has the best chance of defeating President William Ruto.
She hinted there would be no consensus through boardroom negotiations.
“I don't believe that we will retreat to a boardroom and come out with a candidate. We must refer to who among us Kenyans would trust most. So there must be repeat polls that will guide,” Karua said.
The People's Liberation Party leader argued that political deals struck behind closed doors would undermine the opposition's credibility.
“So Kenyans, over to you. Interrogate everybody, including myself. Those who want to be president. And give Kenya what it deserves. Interrogate those who are currently occupying positions; don't trust their words,” she added.
Karua's stance puts her at odds with camps allied to Kalonzo Musyoka and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who have traditionally favoured negotiations and consensus-building.
Kalonzo ally and Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said opinion polls would still likely favour the Wiper leader.
“I think Karua already has an answer even if we go the opinion polls way because I don’t see that changing,” Maanzo told the Star.
Recent Tifa polling showed Ruto leading with 24 per cent support among 2,013 respondents, followed by Kalonzo at 19 per cent.
Matiang’i ranked third at 14 per cent, while Edwin Sifuna, who has yet to formally declare a presidential bid, polled 10 per cent.
Gachagua followed at nine per cent, while Babu Owino garnered two per cent support.
However, this was the first poll that ranked Kalonzo above Matiang’i.
Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, a close ally of Gachagua, said scientific polling alone would not be sufficient to determine the opposition's candidate.
“The formula for identifying the presidential candidate will not only require a scientific process but also acceptability by the majority of Kenyans, past performance, vision for the country and many other considerations,” Muriu told the Star.
“However, it’s an agreed position among all leaders in the joint opposition that elections are won and lost on numbers.”
He said opposition leaders should spend the next six months consolidating their political bases and strengthening their parties before eventually coming together under a single coalition.
The renewed push for a scientific selection process comes amid growing behind-the-scenes disagreements over how the opposition should settle on one presidential candidate.
Past efforts by opposition principals led by Gachagua and Kalonzo to convene retreats to discuss the matter have repeatedly collapsed before taking place.
In December, Kalonzo announced the coalition would unveil its presidential candidate by March this year.
“I make this commitment to you: by the first quarter of 2026, the name of our presidential candidate will be made known to Kenyans. The united opposition is not just a coalition; it is your government-in-waiting,” Kalonzo said in his end-of-year address.
Complicating matters further, Gachagua has maintained he will be on the ballot in 2027 as he continues his court battle challenging his impeachment.
The emergence of the Linda Mwananchi movement, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, joining the team has added another layer to the puzzle, with some opposition supporters increasingly pushing for his candidature.
Political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli argued that only Gachagua and Sifuna possess the political capital to mount a serious challenge against Ruto.
“The real candidates in this election, in my opinion, are Gachagua and Sifuna,” he told the Star.
Naituli further dismissed fears surrounding opinion polling, saying a credible scientific process would naturally identify the most competitive candidate.
“If it is properly scientific, it will bring out the person with the greatest mobilising capacity. It will not hurt anybody,” he said.
Observers warn that unless the opposition agrees on a credible and acceptable formula for choosing its flagbearer, the dispute could deepen and ultimately weaken the coalition's chances of unseating Ruto in 2027.
The development comes at a time fresh cracks have also emerged within the opposition alliance after Gachagua’s DCP disowned a major political rally organised by the Party of National Unity in Meru and Isiolo counties.
The five-day tour, scheduled to run from Thursday to Monday, had been advertised as a joint opposition event bringing together Gachagua, Kalonzo, Karua, Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K), Matiang’i, Justin Muturi (DP) and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
However, DCP organising secretary Mithika Linturi dismissed the event, saying his party had neither been consulted nor involved in its planning.
“As the national organising secretary of DCP, I have been alerted by wananchi of Meru county about the poster below, circulating ostensibly to pull a crowd for a certain political group with little fortunes,” Linturi said.
“We are not aware of the said rallies and our diary is fully booked for other matters.”
He urged DCP supporters to stay away from the meetings and accused organisers of seeking political relevance by using the names of opposition leaders without proper coordination.
Efforts to reach PNU leader Peter Munya for comment were unsuccessful.
According to the PNU poster seen by the Star, the engagements will start in Isiolo on Thursday with rallies in Kagaene, Mikinduri, Kianjai and Ruiri.
The team will then move to Laare, Mutuati, Kiengu, Maua, Maili Tatu and Muthara on Friday.
On Saturday, the opposition brigade will have a media engagement before attending a church service in Meru town and later holding a meeting with elders from the Meru community.
The opposition team will then attend a Sunday church service and address two rallies in Kinoru and Makutano.
On Monday, the team will address five final rallies in Meru town (Gakoromone), Chaaria, Mitunguu, Nkubu and Kieni Kia Ndege (Igoji).
INSTANT ANALYSIS
The push, however, places Karua and Matiang’i on a collision course with sections of the coalition that maintain elections are won through political numbers, grassroots networks and negotiated consensus.
