In a statement issued on Thursday, Karua sought to calm
growing speculation over the coalition's presidential ticket, insisting no
agreement had been reached on the process, criteria or timeline for selecting
the opposition's flag bearer.
Her clarification, however, has laid bare widening
differences among coalition principals and their allies over not only the
presidential flagbearer, but also when the candidate should be unveiled, how
the selection should be conducted and how power should be shared among the
increasingly crowded opposition ranks.
"While our coalition continues to grow in strength and
public confidence, we have not yet concluded the process of establishing the
formal structures, governance framework, and rules that will guide our
engagement,” Karua said.
Karua, the coalition co-convenor, however, disclosed a
technical committee chaired by former Cabinet minister Kipruto arap Kirwa had
completed proposals on formalising the coalition and was expected to present
its recommendations at an upcoming retreat of coalition principals.
While the statement appeared carefully crafted to restore
order after a series of public declarations by senior opposition figures, it
revealed competing interests.
One of the clearest fault lines is the timing of naming the
joint presidential candidate.
DP leader Justin Muturi has argued that delaying the
announcement only benefits President William Ruto.
Muturi on Sunday endorsed Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as
his preferred presidential candidate, if he was not selected.
"If I'm not selected as the presidential candidate, the
only other principal in the united opposition I can support is Kalonzo. Let's
stop beating around the bush," Muturi declared.
Muturi has also voiced frustration over the coalition's
inability to convene regular meetings to settle outstanding issues.
"It has become increasingly difficult for us to meet as
the opposition. The last time we were to
meet was just before Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment case judgment. It seems we are
planning to lose in 2027," he said.
His position mirrors growing calls within sections of the
coalition for an early declaration of a joint candidate to allow sufficient
time to campaign as a united front against Ruto.
Karua's statement, however, appeared to directly counter
such pressure.
While acknowledging that coalition principals were entitled
to express personal preferences, she stressed that choosing a presidential
candidate remained "one of the most consequential decisions" the
alliance would make and thus had to await agreed structures.
"It is therefore a matter that must be determined
collectively, through an agreed consultative framework and established
coalition structures."
Political observers say Karua's intervention reflects
disagreements in the camp.
University don Dr Charles Ng’ang’a warned that while Karua
and Muturi don’t have much influence in their backyards, they could use their
presence to amplify their relevance and shore up their national presence — but
destroy the camp
“I honestly don’t think they are consequential. Karua may
not even be able to deliver at home, and Muturi failed to deliver an MP seat in
his backyard. This is despite him serving as CS, Attorney General and Speaker”.
“But for their political survival and relevance you will
keep seeing this”.
However, Ng’ang’a added that the rise of Sifuna was likely
to disrupt the united opposition.
“A few weeks ago, we were hearing of a possible
Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket. But now, I think it is about Sifuna accommodating the united
Ooposition given his popularity rise,” he said.
Eala MP Kanini Kega, a close ally of Gachagua, argues the
DCP boss remains the force to reckon with. He adds that Gachagua is seeking to
establish the best way to consolidate and form an unstoppable movement.
He, however, downplayed any possible fallout, saying
Gachagua is ready to sacrifice his ambitions.
“He has declared he is willing to sacrifice to have Ruto as
one-term president”.
Another disagreement has emerged over how the eventual
candidate should be identified.
Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni has said the
opposition has to work through a framework — a party or alliance.
"There is no agreed upon formula that I am aware of.
The one they have been talking about sitting in a boardroom, that will not
work."
Kioni further suggested that distinct camps had already
begun forming within the coalition around different presidential hopefuls.
"Muturi attempted to say what he thinks they have
agreed. Gachagua has settled on Kalonzo. That's true. It is not a secret.
Gachagua, Muturi, Wamalwa are in that axis."
"Matiang'i, Kioni and others are in this other
axis."
Rather than relying on elite negotiations, Kioni argues that
the coalition should adopt a more open process capable of reflecting public
opinion.
"Take this thing to the people. Don't try and do it in
the boardroom. Kenyans already have a candidate in mind. If you give the wrong
person, 10 million voters will stay home."
Beyond the presidential contest, another struggle is emerging
over regional representation within the opposition hierarchy.
DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala — who should
essentially be backing his party leader Gachagua — has insisted that the
coalition must allocate one of its top two positions to Western Kenya, warning
that anything less would be unacceptable to the region.
"United opposition must give Sifuna. If they don't give
it to him and Natembeya, Eugene Wamalwa and Malala have not been given any of
the top two seats, we cannot support that ticket," Malala said during an
interview with a Western Kenya radio station.
The former Kakamega senator argued that every region was
aggressively negotiating for its interests.
"The same way Rigathi defends Mt Kenya people is also
good for him to know that I will defend the Mulembe people."
Malala declared his support for Sifuna to either head the
coalition ticket or deputise its presidential candidate.
"I have given him my blessings to become Deputy
President or President."
His remarks come amid shifting and fluid political
development in Western Kenya.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has distanced himself
from Eugene Wamalwa's DAP-K, while gravitating towards the Linda Mwananchi
under Sifuna.
The developments have introduced another layer of complexity
into coalition talks, with Linda Mwananchi simultaneously pursuing closer
cooperation with the broader United Opposition, even as one of its key
supporters appears to be breaking ranks with a coalition principal.
Jubilee deputy organising secretary Pauline Njoroge has also
publicly backed Sifuna, portraying him as the face of a new generation capable
of energising young voters who stayed away from the ballot in 2022.
"Edwin Sifuna is more than a presidential candidate. He
embodies the hopes and aspirations of millions of Kenyans who in the previous
election felt unheard and unrepresented. Whether as the flag bearer or as part
of the presidential ticket, his presence fundamentally changes the political
equation," she said in statement.
Njoroge, who has aligned with Linda Mwananchi, added that
having Sifuna in the opposition line-up would help in enhancing voter turnout.
“In the 2022 elections, about 8 million registered Kenyan
voters did not turn up to vote because for many of them, there simply wasn’t a
candidate who inspired them.
“The millions who stayed away from the ballot in 2022, most
of them young people will also come out in 2027 because at last, they have
found the kind of leadership they have been yearning for,” she added.
When the Star reached out to her, she said “it is now the
time for the young generation”.
Notably, Njoroge had earlier urged Kalonzo and Sifuna to
offer direction.
The public declarations illustrate the delicate balancing
act confronting opposition leaders as they seek to weld together multiple
political parties, regional kingpins and presidential hopefuls into a single
presidential machine.
The coalition's planned principals' retreat, where the Kirwa
committee is expected to table recommendations, is therefore likely to become
one of the most consequential meetings for Kenya's opposition ahead of 2027.
