National Planning; From Rhetoric To Precision

It all started with Pharaoh and a Hebrew young man, Joseph. 

The Bible records in the book on Genesis 41 about Pharaoh’s dreams. In one, he was standing by the Nile, when out of the river there came up seven cows, sleek and fat, and they grazed among the reeds. 

After them, seven other cows, ugly and gaunt, came up out of the Nile and stood beside those on the riverbank. 

And the cows that were ugly and gaunt ate up the seven sleek, fat cows. In the second dream, seven heads of grain, healthy and good, were growing on a single stalk. 

After them, seven other heads of grain sprouted thin and scorched by the east wind. The thin heads of grain swallowed up the seven healthy, full heads.

In the morning Pharaoh’s mind was troubled, so he sent for all the magicians and wise men across Egypt but no one could interpret the dreams. Joseph who was imprisoned at the time was brought before him and he correctly interpreted the dreams.

Joseph said to Pharaoh, ‘Seven years of great abundance are coming throughout the land of Egypt, but seven years of famine will follow them.Then all the abundance in Egypt will be forgotten, and the famine will ravage the land.’

Recognising Joseph's wisdom at age 30, Pharaoh put him in charge of preparing for the famine by storing food reserves during the good years to be used during the seven years of famine so that the country may not be ravaged by the famine.

This stands out as one of the most brilliantly thought-out and executed strategic plans in the history of mankind.

‘So when the famine had spread over all the land, Joseph opened all the stores and sold to the Egyptians and all countries came to Egypt to buy grain because the famine was severe over all the earth,’ Genesis 47: 13-15.

In one of my most humbling, insightful and worthwhile interactive sessions, I sat with the erudite former Cabinet Minister Hon Raphael Tuju at one of his hotels nestled in serene and picturesque setting in Nairobi.

The discussion veered off to the present unprecedented Kenya youth bulge and its ramifications to national political and socio-economic development.

During his formative days as a budding journalist in the 1980s, Hon Tuju recounted interviewing Hon Robert Ouko the then Minister of Economic Planning and Community Affairs.

As he recollected, this was the first time he heard of the term ‘youth bulge.’ Ouko had deliberately used it to refer to the phenomenon that Kenya was experiencing characterised by extremely rapid population growth, with one of the highest growth rates globally due to exceptionally high fertility rates and declining mortality rates. Kenya's demographic structure was in a state of flux.

At the time, Kenya’s population stood at 16.42 million people with the average annual growth rate estimated to be around 4 per cent and half the population under 15 years of age.

For instance in Vihiga and Kisii the growth rate was exceptionally high standing tall at 6 per cent, 40 years later, its ramifications are evident on the erstwhile productive lands.

This population explosion mostly in rural areas put additional pressure on regional development by reducing agricultural productivity due to land fragmentation, strained social amenities and axiomatically lowered the human development index in a country which was struggling to transform its predominantly agrarian economy into a modern one.

Tuju extrapolated how the Kenyan government put in place a policy paper to respond to the rapid population increase.

This policy was outlined in the ‘Sessional Paper No. 4 of 1984,’ that outlined the government's strategy to manage population growth through expanded family planning initiatives aimed at lowering fertility rates by providing access to contraception and education about family planning practices.

Interestingly the paper contemptuously ignored the political and economic ramifications of the rapid growing population.  

Forty years later the frivolity, lackluster and imprecision of the policy can never be gainsaid. The National Council for Population and Development estimates that Kenya’s population stands at 55.32 million with a growth rate of 2 per cent annually.

This population is projected to reach 91.6 million people by 2050 with over 80 per cent of the population aged 35 years and below.  We have a reason to be worried.

Rapid population growth can significantly hinder socio-economic development by putting immense pressure on food security, access to clean water, decent housing, quality healthcare, and education, leading to potential issues like increased poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, and strained infrastructure, particularly in developing countries like ours where resources are already limited.

On the flipside, a moderate population growth can provide a larger skilled workforce leading to economic growth through job creation.

Thus, developing and implementing appropriate strategies, policies and programmes to mitigate the risks and challenges the youth face must be a priority for the government.

It is therefore imperative that Kenya engages in robust long-term national planning buttressed by population projection that is essential for guiding policy formulation, planning and decision-making.  

The national blueprint can help anticipate future employment, food, water, healthcare, education, housing, and public service needs.

Unlike empty political rhetoric, statistical data cannot fabricate information or distort reality; it presents facts as they are, without bias or deception, making it a reliable source of the truth on what to anticipate.

Such a document is crucial in addressing challenges bedeviling our broad-based population segment; the youth, and harnessing this demographic dividend.

These challenges range from unemployment, health, education and skills that match the job market requirements among others.

For instance, estimating future healthcare demands allows the government to plan for more facilities and health workers to address possible health issues.

Similarly, in education, projections on the increase of school-going children will assist in determining the number of schools, teachers and infrastructure needed that will ultimately ensure that education policies are effectively implemented.

Economic forecasting will also benefit greatly from population projections. These projections help predict changes in the labor market, which can affect employment rates, skills uptake, wages, and economic growth.

Additionally, understanding shifts in population size and age distribution will help the government to plan for the future by aiding in long-term investment decisions in sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and industrialisation.

Europe for instance took a leap into the future and brilliantly planned with precision queuing the agrarian revolution with industrialization to harness her demographic dividend. 

Our current state is ironically unpleasant and dire, and it can be easily exacerbated by a rapid population explosion as is expected by 2050. Kenya has the potential to transition from rhetorical national planning to precise, results-oriented development.

The Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) is an ambitious framework, but its success depends on data-driven implementation, financial sustainability, institutional accountability, and policy continuity.

Without these, Kenya risks repeating the mistakes of the past; grand promises with limited execution. To ensure long-term economic transformation, precision must replace rhetoric in national planning.

Aided by statistical data, we can surely project what ‘famine’ lies ahead. We have an option of plugging in a Joseph to develop and implement a strategic plan that will harness our population dividend ensuring plenty is found within our borders or surrender the fate of our country to a ‘ravenous famine’ that will shake the political and socio-economic pillars of our nations. The choice is ours.

Alex Matere is a public policy expert and IVLP Impact Awardee currently serving as Executive Director of Youth Bridge Kenya.