Eyes on 2027 polls as Ruto’s re-election team takes shape

President William Ruto’s re-election campaign brigade is strategising to quell the turbulence threatening his re-election bid. He faces many challenges, including a growing rebellion against his administration’s policies, programmes and projects.

Ruto is quietly crafting a formidable squad of trusted allies and respected ODM figures to refute critics and promote his administration’s achievements.

He is carefully picking battalion from different regions in an attempt to barricade the areas against potential opponents.

At the centre of Ruto’s team is opposition icon Raila Odinga, who has seemingly struck a deal with the President, his former adversary.

“Raila and I agreed [to work together]. You know, there was a time I helped Raila and this time he has helped me. Why should anyone find a problem with that?” Ruto recently told a crowd in Kisumu.

The deal has seen Raila release his top troops to Ruto’s Cabinet in the broad-based government formed after the Gen Z protests that crested in July.

“The Cabinet [incorporating ODM]… is pure calculus for Ruto’s reelection bid,” political analyst Javas Bigambo said.

“The plan is to have Nyanza, Western and Coast behind Ruto, and a good slice of Mt Kenya.”

Raila, a shrewd and seasoned warhorse, has controlled the Nyanza, Western, Coast, and Nairobi voting blocs for decades.

“For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West, which is likely to vote as a bloc, now out, he needs a replacement, which he found in Raila and his Nyanza backyard,” lawyer Elias Mutuma said.

If Raila’s deal with Ruto stands, the President is likely to inherit the crucial voting blocs. “His political future is dependent on his strong ties and the goodwill of Raila,” political analyst Daniel Orogo said.

Political observer Mark Bichachi said Raila comes as a package for Ruto, along with other “small regional kingpins” crucial for a second term.

“If you go to the Coast, Hassan Joho is there and Amason Kingi is already on the President’s side. This is the same case with Western which has former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, who is very influential,” Bichachi said.

Oparanya, a former ODM deputy, is now CS for Cooperatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises.

Besides Raila, Ruto is banking on the support of Raila’s lieutenants in Nyanza, the Coast, Western and Nairobi. In Nyanza, Minority leader and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and her Kisii counterpart Simba Arati are likely to lead Ruto campaigns.

Junet is National Assembly Minority leader. Cabinet secretaries John Mbadi (National Treasury and former ODM chairman) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) have become Ruto’s key defenders.

Wandayi was ODM secretary for political affairs. In Western, Raila will leverage the influence of Oparanya. He is an aggressive grassroots mobiliser credited with delivering the Kakamega vote to Raila in previous elections.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula are the President’s pillars in Western.

Ruto performed dismally in Western and Nyanza in the last election. The regions voted overwhelmingly for Raila. The President will also bank on the influence and popularity of Mining and Blue Economy CS Joho, his Trade and Industrialisation counterpart Salim Mvurya and Senate Speaker Kingi.

Last week, Joho triggered an uproar after he threatened to ‘go for’ Kenyans criticising and opposing Ruto’s projects and programmes online.

“A country cannot be built through the internet. It cannot be built by people whose works revolve around Twitter [now X], Facebook, Instagram and TikTok. Let me put them on notice: we can also talk if they bring us trouble, we can also serve them trouble,” the former ODM deputy party leader said.

Junet is also leading the charge against Ruto’s critics and has even called for scrapping of public participation, which he said hindered the implementation of key government projects.

“The government is given roadblocks when it wants to do its work. If it must be public participation, getting permission from Parliament, the courts, civil society and churches, when will the work ever get done?” the legislator asked.

In Nairobi, Ruto will count on Governor Johnson Sakaja and Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi, a key Raila ally, to deliver the crucial capital county voting bloc.

ODM MPs George Aladwa and TJ Kajwang are likely to market Ruto in Nairobi. In Mt Kenya, where the President faces rebellion following the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua as Deputy President, DP Kithure Kindiki stands out as his point man.

Ruto aims to use Kindiki to defuse the influence of the wounded Gachagua, who appears to have the sympathy and support of residents outraged by the impeachment of ‘one of their own’.

However, opinion is divided on whether the soft-spoken law professor, possesses the red-meat instincts and battle skills to undercut revenge-seeking Gachagua and deliver the region to his boss in 2027.

“Kindiki is widely acceptable, even outside Mt Kenya because of his stature and demeanour. He is a likeable character,” Mutuma, a High Court advocate, said.

The lawyer said the pioneer Tharaka Nithi senator has a statesman’s personality that could help him consolidate the region.

“He is a national leader and he demonstrated that when he served as Interior CS; that can work for him in and out of Mt Kenya,” Mutuma said.

However, other pundits doubted Kindiki’s ability to vigorously marshal the area behind him and the President.

University don Herman Manyora argued the former Interior CS appears to lack the political combat credentials to rally the region behind him and generally undo Gachagua’s influence.

“He has to prove it but for now he does not appear to have that character and ability to consolidate Mt Kenya East, let alone the entire region,” he said.

Kindiki hails from Mt Kenya East comprising Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi, while Gachagua comes from the West – Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri and Kirinyaga.

Vocal National Assembly Majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah, Molo MP Kimani Kuria and a host of loyal MPs also could drum up support for Ruto in Mt Kenya.

In Northeastern, Environment CS Aden Duale could lead Ruto’s offensive in the expansive region. In Eastern, the bedrock of opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka, the President will rely on Labour CS Alfred Mutua and MPs allied to his Kenya Kwanza coalition to crack the region.