Kalonzo, Sifuna, Matiang'i in high-stakes scramble to take on Ruto

The growing differences have triggered fears of a possible split that could hand President Ruto an easy run.

On Tuesday, Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni appeared to suggest that former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i will not shelve his bid for anyone.  

“The ballot paper as of now has three names; William Ruto, Fred Matiang’i and Kalonzo Musyoka,” he said.

“Let us make up our minds where we want to be. I have made up mine. I am waiting for the others to convince me otherwise.” 

Once again, Kioni maintained Gachagua will not contest for the presidency and is looking for a presidential candidate he can manipulate.

“He is keen on 100 members of Parliament and keen to support a presidential candidate who can listen to him. There is nothing evil about it," he stated.

"That’s another difference between me and him. I want a presidential candidate who can sit and tell us this is the way I want us to go. Sio mtu anabebewa akili.”

Kioni said Mt Kenya should not listen to Gachagua as he misled the region in 2022 that has now led to the hot soup.

“Now all of a sudden you are very clever, telling us where we should go,” he said.

Speaking on TV47, Embakasi North MP James Gakuya suggested the opposition could agree that the chosen candidate will only serve for one term.

“They can agree on things like on a coalition for one term, with a transitional president. This is power and power has interests, much as they want to rescue the nation. Issues of 'what shall I take home?' is there,” he said.

Former Public Service CS Justin Muturi, who appears settled on a Kalonzo-led ticket, said there was no good reason to delay the naming of the opposition flagbearer.

The former National Assembly speaker believes the opposition risks wasting valuable time by delaying the decision.

"Every suitor is welcome on board, but we can't afford to wait forever," Muturi told the Star when asked whether the delay could become counterproductive.

In a recent interview, the DP leader warned that the apparent disorganisation could hand Ruto a comfortable win.

Even so, Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, popularly known as Mejjadonk, dismissed the calls.

"There will be no naming of candidate by the opposition until next year," he said.

"The people pushing us are just trying to survive and are largely those who know they stand no chance of being picked. They could be planning on moving to another coalition."

The opposition is also rocked by internal fights that analysts say risk derailing the unity bid.

Mumias East MP Peter Salasya has sustained attacks on Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.

Insiders say the attacks have the backing of some opposition bigwigs.

Salasya claims Sifuna-aligned faction that also includes Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya is creating confusion in opposition through parallel political structures.

Last week, Gachagua rejected Linda Mwanachi Movement plans to campaign for his candidate in the Ol Kalou by-election.

But while Sifuna is unwanted in some quarters, some leaders within the opposition have rooted for him and signalled a possible power shift.

Yesterday, Gakuya argued the Nairobi senator cannot be ignored in the coalition’s negotiations.

"Let us all agree Sifuna is a factor by himself. There is a game of numbers in any election and nobody can wish him away," he said.

"There is a split in the solid ODM and in the bases that were enjoyed by Raila. Most of those bases have been inherited by Sifuna."

According to Gakuya, Sifuna is capable of attracting support in Nyanza, Western, Coast and Nairobi, giving him bargaining power during coalition talks.

"He is a candidate you cannot wish away. He has a base to negotiate from. The formula that must arise must be one that wins an election," he said.

Gakuya argued that sacrifices by individual leaders may ultimately be necessary if the opposition hopes to mount a credible challenge against Ruto.

"If it comes to Matiang'i and Rigathi sacrificing for Kalonzo to take the mantle, it will be wise for them. They need factors that will make them sail through."

Gakuya is the second DCP figurehead to talk highly of Sifuna.

DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala was the first to openly declare his preference for Sifuna as deputy president.

"We are booking the deputy presidency. We are fronting our son Sifuna to be the deputy president," Malala said recently.

"Gachagua, Kalonzo and Matiang'i should sit and agree on whom among them will fly the flag but for us we are for Sifuna to take the DP slot."

While the leaders agree on the need to send Ruto home, they remain sharply divided on the formula that would deliver victory without breaking them apart.

Kalonzo himself recently stated that Gachagua has agreed to support his bid, but Gachagua’s preferred choice for running mate remains unclear.

Gachagua denied ever endorsing Kalonzo.

PLP leader Martha Karua in a recent statement said no candidate has been chosen.

“This process requires patience, goodwill and discipline from all principals, members and supporters,” she urged.

DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa has publicly acknowledged the growing divisions, alleging that some leaders were working on new political parties.

"There are new parties being formed. This is what is causing the division. Let us reject efforts to divide us," he said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Opposition coalitions have traditionally performed best when they unite behind a single candidate and shared agenda. Whenever they split, incumbents have tended to prevail. For the anti-Ruto camp, therefore, the question is no longer whether unity is desirable. The bigger question is whether ambition, regional calculations and competing political vehicles will allow it to happen.